Thought I'd take a break from the 1200 word essays to look at some of the more interesting props I've come across over the last few days. Honestly, if I could find enough content this entire blog would be dedicated to props.
From SportsBetting:
Knee-jerk lean here was "Yes", but that definitely feels like the square side. No clue on this one, go ahead and leave any thoughts in the comments.
SportsBetting, again:
This jumped out at me because you just need one of seven teams to lose. Here are the odds on each team, from Pinnacle:
The 98% for Louisville is a guess, they haven't released a line yet since Morehead St. just played last night. This line is clearly off; since I took that screen grab, it's been changed to -115/-115. But there is still a good deal of value in that. In fact, you can parlay the six non-Louisville teams at 5Dimes, and end up getting +126 on that, so there's an arbitrage opportunity here.
From Bodog:
The tournament expanded in 1985, so this will be the 25th year of 1s playing 16s. That means top seeds are 96-0 against their generally overmatched opponents, which has brought us to the general consensus that the 1s are a lock to reach the first weekend.
This just isn't true. I haven't ever skipped all my Thursday classes this semester, but does that mean it can't happen tomorrow? Of course not. In fact, the 96-game winning streak is the reason this prop, at 30-1 for at least one of the four 16s to win this year, has such good value.
Again, the Louisville % is an estimate. But this Bodog line is comparable to the single game lines at Pinnacle for both Chattanooga and East Tennessee St.; there is immense value in 30:1. It may not be this year, but one of these teams is bound to pull the huge upset eventually; it's far from impossible.
From VIP:
BYU and Utah are the two MWC participants; the Cougars are favored by two over Texas A&M, while the Utes are a pk against Arizona. So right there we're over 25% already. But you also have to consider if one team loses in the first round, and the other reaches the Sweet 16:
Partially because BYU is better than people think, this hits just under 48% of the time, which is more than enough to be value at +200.
14 comments:
I don't have time to read this whole thing, but the first one intrigued me. Let's assume (dumbly) that the worst case scenario there are three basic situations in which Binghamton would lead the game. 1. Win the tip-off, score. 2. Get Duke to turn the ball over/not score, score. 3. Duke scores first, Binghamton hits a three.
You're looking for those three to add up to at least 60% for value assuming there's some extra chance in there, and I'm not sure I can see it. If the tip is a theoretical 50/50 (although if I had to imagine a line for that, it would probably be shaded for Duke), Binghamton doesn't score with ease all of ever (49% eFG%, below average adjO), Duke plays good defense, doesn't turn the ball over much, and Binghamton also doesn't shoot the three ball very much to begin with, and most of their players don't shoot it well at all. I'm sure there's some way you can quantify some of the Pomeroy factors in this situation, but I have a hard time believing there's value on either side.
Great post. Here are my thoughts.
Binghamton: I actually think "No" feels like the square side. Wouldn't Joe Public look at this and say, "I can get plus 140 on Duke in a bet vs Binghamton!! Weeeeee!!"
16 seeds: Your UNC number is off. The ML spread (at least on 5Dimes) is +5000/-12500, making L% = 98.87%. I'll accept your 98% for Louisville, which brings the total based on L% for All 1s Adv to 89.8% Still plenty of value at 30-1 though. Great catch, I never would've spotted that.
Mountain West: I actually have the Mountain West as a favorite to win more than 1.5 games. Another good find. I feel like I should go find some stuff for you now!
For UNC, Pinny didn't have a line, so I just plugged the spread into my Pomeroy spreadsheet and took that %. Your way is better.
I think if I went by straight Pomeroy (probably what you're doing?), I would've had the MWC as a favorite on that one, too. But I regressed the Pomeroy prediction for BYU's first round game (-5.5 I think) most of the way to the line (-2.5), like I did for the big simulation. Just trying to be conservative since Pomeroy is so high on them.
OK, most of this stuff isn't as strong as yours, but still value in my opinion... (all on sportsbook)
Total wins by #1 seeds, Under 13.5 (even)
Total wins by Pac-10, Over 6.5 +120
Total wins by Big Ten, Over 7 -110
Total wins by Big East, Under 15.5 +115
I regressed Pomeroy too, though not as much as you did. I'm using 2/3 market, 1/3 Pomeroy.
I'd really like to know how they arrived at those odds MWC odds myself.
I think it is reasonable to assume that you're dealing with "B team" on these as I can't imagine (purely speculating though) that the LVSCs waste their time on this stuff. The general formula for prop seems to be:
- Make something up
- Set a reasonable number based on already existing odds
- Increase vig
My guess is that someone completely forgot to account for the fact that one of the MWC could win 2 games on their own. Pretty hysterical if that was the case.
"you're dealing with "B team""
Probably being too kind to the person that set that 16 seeds line. Down to 22 now (still value), from 35 initially.
"Probably being too kind to the person that set that 16 seeds line. Down to 22 now (still value), from 35 initially"
I don't know. You could argue that infinity is a fair price on that.
In all seriousness, it cracks me up how short people's memories are when it comes to some of this stuff.
Con was a pretty big consensus favorite going into the 2006 tournament, and they were in deep, deep do-do (practicing for tomorrow) in the 2nd half against Albany.
It's only a matter of time before someone pulls it off.
At S'Bett, number of #1 seeds making it to the final four: Under1.5 at +130. According to your sims there is a 60% chance of that happening.
S'Bett again, Memphis to win under 2.5 games at +170. According to your projections, there is a 40.85% chance of it happen. Could be a nice partial hedge.
Where exactly are you finding that, JY? That is an insane price.
found all the #16 seeds at +50000 to make the sweet 16 (betus). more value for e tennessee and morehead but i think there's value for all of them. i'm sure there's money to be made just by arbitrage.
Good find, ZZ. Those are great odds, particularly for ETSU.
it's just at the Sportsbetting.com props down towards the bottom of the list
the price is even better now, +135
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