AL Update: Seven Weeks In

RS/G, RA/G: Through games of Tuesday, 5/26.

Current: Current team strength in wins per 162 games against an average schedule, as described here.
Current Div%: Current percentage chance of winning division, as of 7pm EST on 5/27.
Prev Div%: Percentage chance of winning division as of three weeks ago.
Diff: Subtraction.
Div: Best odds available on team to win division.
Site: Where those odds can be found (BetUS, SportsBetting, Bookmaker)

There's been an unusual amount of variety in the East over the past couple years, with the Rays taking the division last year and the Blue Jays getting off to the hot start in '09.  That should continue in the coming years -- Tampa will be heard from again of course, and the Orioles are getting close -- but this year it looks like we'll be going back to Boston and New York in September and October.  The Rays have dug themselves a hole, and there's no certainty they'll snap out of it with Kazmir DL'd and Sonnanstine's ERA hovering around eight.

The other three teams aren't entirely out of it, but as you can see above BOS and NYY combine to win the division about nine out of 10 times, splitting that number almost perfectly down the middle.  Everybody pretty much agrees on this; my sim, Matchbook, the odds at various books.  In theory that could mean a compelling race in September, but unfortunately the Wild Card comes out of the East nearly 95% of the time, so probably not.  The WC certainly has its benefits -- I personally don't really have much to compare it to since I started following baseball right when it was implemented -- but given the way the AL is currently situated, it stands to minimize the importance of what could be some pretty compelling races in the coming years.  Although it also prevents the second best team in the league from missing the playoffs, so it depends how you look at it.

So, Joe Mauer with power; that's like the perfect player, right?  Over his first 104 PAs, Mauer has been worth 2.5 wins, and that's not even including his defense behind the plate.  Over 633 PAs (that's how many he had last year) that projects to 15.2 wins.  Throw in a couple wins forhis GG defense and we're talking about a 17 win player.  Obviously it'd be nearly impossible to maintain that pace, but even doing that for four weeks is really amazing.  Ibanez leads the majors in WAR at +3.0 (which is hilarious, really), and even that's over 170 PAs.  

In my mind I've already awarded this division to Detroit, but that's clearly incorrect.  They are the favorites, but in every division other than the NL West each team is available at at least even money to win the division.  I'd normally argue that PECOTA/CHONE is underrating the Tigers, because Verlander and Jackson have been better than one could have foreseen, but that hasn't really come through in the odds, who have them as only a few percentage points better than the projections did in March.  Maybe they'll start treating Verlander like the monster that he is, but we'll have to wait and see.

The sim indicates that the Indians are a good bet at +1175.  I'm not saying they're not, but I don't know how much information the game lines are adding here.  It's quickly becoming apparent that the '07 Fausto Carmona isn't walking through that door, and he'll probably continue to get less and less respect from the oddsmakers.  Then there's David Huff and Zach Jackson, who had made a combined two starts this season when I ran these numbers, so obviously they're not sufficiently factoring in.

The odds out west are just strange, once again not adding up to 100% (96.2% this time).  At BetUS, the Angels and Rangers are both at +100, but at Bookmaker LA is -220 with Texas at +180.  Combine that with the long odds B'Maker is offering on the M's, and you get a rather strange situation.

The Angels have been the toughest team to project all year, but now that Lackey and Santana are back it should be easier to get a handle on them a few weeks down the road.  This issue is the reason that the odds for Oakland and Seattle are a bit inflated above.

The game odds had the Rangers as +.030 and +.029 in the two segments I looked at, so they look to be coming in at about .478 if you don't regress those at all.  Which isn't bad, but I can't don't see them improving too much on that, true talent-wise at least.  Their rotation just doesn't strike anyone out, coming in dead last in the AL with 5.2 K/9.  They've played well so far, yes, but outscoring your opponents by 19 runs over 46 games really isn't enough to change how they're viewed overall.