Things really have not gone well for numbers two through five on this list:
08 FBV: 2008 fastball velocity.
1st 3W '09: Fastball velocity during weeks 1-3 of 2009.
Diff: Percentage difference between those two velocities.
2nd 3W '09: Fastball velocity during weeks 4-6 of 2009.
Diff: Percentage difference between weeks 4-6 of 2009 and all of 2008.
1'3-> 2'3: Percentage difference in fastball velocity between weeks 4-6 and 1-3 of 2009.
The declines, particularly in the first three weeks, were significantly larger than the gains in the top five. The former averages -2.2%, while the latter is only +1.4%. Part of this is just regression, since the guys I'm looking managed to stick around in the majors for the majority of '08. But that doesn't explain the entire discrepancy, since the average among all 85 guys was -0.5%.
I think some of it can probably be explained by guys pitching hurt. Perez was sent to the DL on May 5, and Glen Perkins, who barely missed the list at -1.8% was placed on the disabled list on Monday. The other three starters from the 85 I looked at who have hit the DL* were Carlos Silva, Scott Olsen, and Carlos Zambrano, who were all between -0.3% and 0.0%.
And it's certainly possible that some of the other guys who have lost velocity may end up on the DL at some point. There has been talk that Kazmir isn't healthy, and I doubt that will change after his 4.1IP, 8H, 7R, 4BB
performance on Wednesday night. And it's not like the other two non-knuckleballers are doing any better; Cabrera has been
relegated to the Nats' pen (he'll fit in perfectly there), and Eveland is currently
struggling mightily in AAA.
Go a little farther down
the list and the news gets a bit better; Perkins is on the DL, but Pineiro is getting by despite not striking anyone out, and Harang and Lincecum are doing just fine. But, unless this is some incredible fluke, it looks like guys who lose at least 2% of their FB velocity over the first three weeks of the year shouldnt feel too secure about their spot in the rotation.
*- I think, I may be missing someone. If someone on
this list has hit the DL over the last month, let me know.
08 FBV: 2008 fastball velocity.
4 comments:
Nice to see Wakefield is getting his velocity back. I was really worried for a while.
And now Kazmir to the DL. Shocker.
I know you looked for 100IP last season + 80BF this season in the original post, but (do you have any idea) how long until we can take a look at relievers in this context with a shred of reliability?
I'd guess that if a guy pitched 60 innings last year and has faced like 75+ hitters in '09, that'd give you a pretty good idea. And there are a lot of guys like that at this point.
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