NL Update: Seven Weeks In

RS/G, RA/G: Through games of Wednesday, 5/27.
Current: Current team strength in wins per 162 games against an average schedule, as described here.
Current Div%: Current percentage chance of winning division, as of 7am EST on 5/29.
Prev Div%: Percentage chance of winning division as of three weeks ago.
Diff: Subtraction.
Div: Best odds available on team to win division.
Site: Where those odds can be found (BetUS, SportsBetting, Bookmaker)

The Bookmaker odds aren't up as I write this, but 40:1 on Florida really jumps out.  The Marlins are +700 at BetUS, and +1200 at SportsBetting.  They were one of the main reasons I wanted to start adjusting PECOTA/CHONE by the game lines, and the difference of opinion between the projections and Vegas continues to be enormous.  Here are the five teams that the odds indicate were most underrated by PECOTA/CHONE coming into 2009:

The Fish are 50% above the rest of the field. What's funny is that they have actually performed quite poorly so far; their third-order record, 20.1-27.9, is worse than Washington's. It does seem likely that Florida's lines were a bit skewed in their favor during and after their hot start, as that difference broken up into the first three and second four weeks is +.062 and +.040, respectively. Even so, the consistent, and very large (.050 is 8.1 wins) difference over a pretty good sample size is very interesting. It's possible that a number that's such an outlier like the Marlins' difference should be regressed more than the rest of them, but for now we'll have to wait and see.

St. Louis' run prevention has been tremendous; as a team, they have a 121 ERA+. All seven guys in the bullpen have better than average ERAs, although that looks to be more the product of fortune than dominance. It's the rotation that's been the most impressive, with a 198:90 K:BB and only 18 homers allowed in 285.1 IP. Part of that is unsustainable, but as a team they have a HR/FB of 8.0%, which is lower than average, but nothing out of the ordinary. St. Louis easily has the best third-order record in the division, at 27.1-19.9 (.577). The offense isn't much after Pujols, but it's not like the Cubs and Brewers are putting up runs in bunches either; Carpenter is the x-factor, but even if he goes down again it looks like the Cards are in this for the long haul.

Somehow, the Dodgers are in the exact same position they were three weeks ago, according to these numbers; really, there hasn't been much change in the NL except for the top half of the Central. It's interesting how much higher the scoring environment is in the East (10.0 R/G) than the other two divisions (8.9 in the Central, 9.1 in the West). There are 11.3 runs scored in the average Nationals game, which is over 40% higher than San Francisco's average of 8.0. None of the odds for the NLW squads are even vaguely interesting