What Are The Odds: Zimmerman's Streak

The Nationals' third baseman goes for 30 in San Francisco tonight, which seems to be the time people start taking these streaks "seriously" (whatever that means). Really, though, this is what got me thinking about it:

For that prop, it's worth considering the quality of the opposing pitcher (Cain tonight). Since I'm more concerned with his odds of getting a hit in each of the next 27 games rather than just tonight, I'm going to assume an average opponent on the mount.

In that case, there are two things to consider: Zimmerman's "true talent" BA, and how many opportunities he'll get in each game. The second one is easy; here is the frequency of his ABs in games he's started in '08 and '09:

Coming into the year, PECOTA had him as a .289 hitter, while CHONE said .296. Averaging those estimates and using Tango's method to incorporate his 2009 performance, we can say that Zimmerman is a true .300 hitter right now.

Getting that many opportunities per game, against an average pitcher, with 29 games already in the bag, a .300 hitter has the following odds of extending his streak to these landmarks:

Adding the odds for "100" really widens the table, that was probably a mistake. This may not look very optimistic, but he has come a long way; the odds of a .300 hitter getting a hit in 56 straight games is about one in 3.8 million.

Edit: Through game #30: