From SportsBetting:
He's got one so far, which means he needs to win it in at least four of the next nine seasons for this to go over. He'd have to become the fourth guy in history to win five. Russell did it over an eight year span, and Abdul-Jabbar won six in 10 years. Jordan won five, but over 11 years, a pace that wouldn't be good enough for LeBron to go over this number.
My opinion means even less than usual when it comes to the NBA, but I'd have to lean under here. Yeah, he's great and all, but there's just so much that can go wrong. It's also such a silly, sometimes arbitrary thing; he could miss a few games one year, his team could have a down year, the voters could get bored with giving it to him every year, etc. There's also that Kobe guy, although I guess he's getting up there in age (31 in August). Those who follow the NBA more than two months per year (can't wait for the draft) would probably have a bit more insight.
SportsBetting also has odds on whether the big names in the FA class of 2010 will stay with their current teams. LeBron is -200/+155 to be on the Cavs on opening day 2010-11.
Monday, June 1, 2009
LeBron's MVPs
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7 comments:
The real question is why in the world is there juice on these. If anyone actually bet any real money on this they should be shot.
Even if this prop had an obscenely high EV, who would want to tie up their funds for ~10 years?
Yeah, I guess there's really no reason for juice. They can take whatever funds they get tied up in this and collect interest compounded over ten years that would probably collect more than the juice on the prop.
...or they could do both.
I think it's more important that nobody in their right mind would tie up a significant amount of money for that length of time with such high volatility, though.
More LeBron:
"FOR WHICH TEAM WILL LEBRON JAMES PLAY HIS FIRST GAME OF THE 2010-2011 NBA REGULAR SEASON
Cavaliers: even
Knicks: +200
Nets: +350
Pistons: +550"
(Sportsbook)
I feel (squarely?) like there has gotta be value in the Cavs at EV.. certainly with the arbitrage opportunity from Sportsbetting, but even without.
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