Continuing with this week's apparent theme of random odds, I don't know that I've ever seen this before. SportsBetting has posted lines for games two through seven of the NBA Finals, despite the fact that the series doesn't even start until Thursday night. Here are their current lines for all seven games:
They also come with this disclaimer:
"Events classified as PROSPECTIVE will be labeled as such on our website.There are a couple things of interest here. First, we now have something to compare the actual Game 2 line to if, say the Magic win by 20 on Thursday. Or, if Kobe gets hurt.
* Due to the advanced posting of the lines event date and time are subject to fluctuation and may be amended or taken off the board at any time.
* No wagers will be canceled on PROSPECTIVE events due to line movements, player injuries or unforeseen circumstances.
* If the PROSPECTIVE event does not take place the wagers will be no-actioned and all monies refunded."
But the more interesting aspect is that, as you can see, the lines are not the same for each game on either team's home floor. For both the first and final games in each city, the home team is laying an extra half point.
Why would this be? The two things that immediately come to mind are the crowd and travel. Does LA have an extra advantage in the first game because the fans will be so hyped up? Do the Magic get an extra half point in Game 3 because while LA will be checking into a hotel and sleeping in some random bed, Orlando will be coming home?
These may seem stupid and trivial, but that's the type of thing that makes up home-court advantage in the first place, and I don't think anyone denies that teams play better at home. It's probably worth going back through previous years to see if this pattern comes up in the lines for a larger sample.
4 comments:
Another strange way to look at it is that Orlando picks up a half point of strength in four games, while LA only gets that half point back in three. I can't even begin to quantify the meaning of that.
Better teams which are trailing in a playoff series have tended to outperform historically, esp. the Lakers with Kobe. I think that is why games 1 and 2 have different lines. 71% chance or whatever that Lakers are up 1-0 entering game 2. I.e., this implies that the median line in game 2 given a Lakers win in game 1 would have to be -5.2, in order for -5.5 to be fair right now. I am not betting it, but I think if Lakers are up 1-0, game 2 line will be under -5.2. I.e., slight value right now (vs. expected future price) on Orl +5.5 in gm 2. We'll see..
"slight value right now (vs. expected future price) on Orl +5.5 in gm 2. We'll see.."
While I agree with your premise, I don't think teams down 0-1 gains over 5% of value. And the
"over" is the important part of that sentence.
What's the typical home court edge in points for an average NBA team? 8 points or so?
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