First a disclaimer: This is mostly just for fun. I have no idea if there's any correlation between these stats and performance in the Derby. If I had to guess, I'd say there is, but it's probably not very strong. Odds taken from The Greek. Stats through Thursday's games.
The Favorites
Albert Pujols, +200
2009 AB/HR: 9.2
Career AB/HR: 16.4
Current ZiPS AB/HR: 12.9 (2nd of eight contestants)
Avg. Std. Distance: 415.8 (3rd of 108 qualified in MLB)
Derby History: Lost in finals in '03; lost in semis in '07
Ryan Howard +250
2009 AB/HR: 15.5
Career AB/HR: 12.1
Current ZiPS AB/HR: 12.5 (1st of eight contestants)
Avg. Std. Distance: 415.7 (4th in MLB)
Derby History: Won in 2006; eliminated in semis in 2007
The fact that he's hitting homers 78% more frequently than his career average gives you an idea of what an absurd year Pujols is having. According to both the odds and stats above, these two are the favorites. Howard has a slightly stronger (and more recent) history in the event, while Pujols has the advantage of being the best hitter on the planet. But I seriously doubt that, short of winning multiple HR Derby titles, someone could separate themselves in terms of their skill at hitting home runs in this context sufficiently enough to be expected to win 29% of the time (or, in Pujols' case, 33% of the time). It seems very unlikely that there would be value in the two biggest names in the field at such short odds.
Second Tier
Prince Fielder +350
2009 AB/HR: 13.8
Career AB/HR: 15.4
Current ZiPS AB/HR: 13.6 (3rd of eight contestants)
Avg. Std. Distance: 404.4 (32nd in MLB)
Derby History: Eliminated in first round in 2007
Adrian Gonzalez +500
2009 AB/HR: 12.5
Career AB/HR: 19.2
Current ZiPS AB/HR: 16.5 (6th of eight contestants)
Avg. Std. Distance: 396.8 (62nd in MLB)
Derby History: Has never previously participated.
Carlos Pena +600
2009 AB/HR: 12.9
Career AB/HR: 15.9
Current ZiPS AB/HR: 14.0 (4th of eight contestants)
Avg. Std. Distance: 391.0 (85th in MLB)
Derby History: Has never previously participated.
Next are a series of guys known for their power, but not with the same reputations of Howard and Pujols, and without any track record of success in the Derby. Oddly, they each score lower than you'd think in average standard distance, especially Pena. None of these odds are particularly attractive.
Late To The Party
Joe Mauer +650
2009 AB/HR: 15.7
Career AB/HR: 38.9
Current ZiPS AB/HR: 29.1 (8th of eight contestants)
Avg. Std. Distance: 387.5 (92nd in MLB)
Derby History: Has never previously participated.
After a ridiculous 11 homers in his first 81 ABs (7.4 AB/HR) of 2009 it was inevitable that Mauer would slow down a bit, and he has, hitting only four homers in his last 151 ABs (37.8 AB/HR). He has continued to rake (.358/.422/.503), but singles aren't going to be of much help on Monday night. Mauer's only +650 because he's a really good all-around player and got off the the hot start, but his ZiPS projection shows that he's nowhere near the power threat that of the five hitters listed in front of him (and one listed behind).
"Who?"
Nelson Cruz +800
2009 AB/HR: 14.0
Career AB/HR: 19.8
Current ZiPS AB/HR: 14.5 (5th of eight contestants)
Avg. Std. Distance: 414.3 (8th in MLB)
Derby History: Has never previously participated.
Brandon Inge +1000
2009 AB/HR: 15.5
Career AB/HR: 30.9
Current ZiPS AB/HR: 23.6 (7th of eight contestants)
Avg. Std. Distance: 408.9 (22nd in MLB)
Derby History: Has never previously participated.
The viewership of the Derby on ESPN has got to be a pretty casual crowd; how many of them do you think will recognize Nelson Cruz's name when he's announced on Monday night? Three percent? Five?
It's that anonymity that gives him value here, in my opinion. If you just look at the stats he'd be the third favorite behind Pujols and Howard, and obviously his odds don't reflect that. But I can't think of any reason he would only be the seventh most likely guy to win this thing; his long odds seem to be solely a result of Cruz not being a household name.
And we're not just going off his 2009 numbers here; his ZiPS projection is a product of 152 HRs his extensive minor league career, including 37 in 383 ABs (10.4 AB/HR) in AAA last year. If you can do a bit better than +800 (which shouldn't be difficult in the market Matchbook recently opened), I think Cruz is the best bet in the field.
8 comments:
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I compared full season AB/HR against HR Derby AB/HR figures for 2000-2008. I removed some outliers (Bonds, Sosa circa 2001 and the likes) Forcing an intercept of one (why? I don't really know) gives this graph and not forcing the intercept gives a negative co-efficient for season HR/AB, so it's basically a bunch of crap. I'm sure career-to-date AB/HR totals or even last 3 years would be better gauges, but it's not like that data is anywhere near as easy to pull as this data was. Average Standard Distance, I'd guess, is probably the best gauge with some form of AB/HR supplementing. In asymmetrical parks I'm sure hitting tendencies are important, too.
Just in case you don't want to wrap your mind around the axises, x-axis is Season AB/HR and y-axis is Home Run Derby AB/HR.
I'm also really psyched that the HRD is a live market on MB.
watch here live - confirmed:
http://tinyurl.com/watchhomerunderby
The problem with using the single year data is that the guys are picked beacuse they've hit a bunch of homers in the first half, so natually you're going to get a bunch of fluky stuff in there, and there's not going to be much separation anyway. I'll look at last three years or career or something sometime in the next 363 days.
That's what I figured, but I don't know where to get 1H stats from -- BR selecting April thru June?
I believe the 1H/2H splits on BR are pre- and post-ASB.
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