2010 College Hoops Previews: The ACC

This whole "rating 73+ teams" thing was far too large of a project for me to take on myself, so I enlisted the help of a couple friends: JP from Sports Investments, and ML from The TMLJ. We used the ratings described last week (those ratings for the ACC are here) as a baseline, but there were no shortage of manual adjustments. If you ever get to the end of this, chime in in the comments with any questions, factual corrections or disagreements. All team ratings from kenpom.com, and recruiting info from Scout.

1. Duke
2009 rating: .951
Returning 62% of minutes, 65% of points
Lost Gerald Henderson (draft), Greg Paulus and David McClure (seniors), Elliot Williams and Taylor King (transfers).
Incoming freshmen: Ryan Kelly (6'9, 205; 5*), Mason Plumlee (6'10, 205; 5*), and possibly Andre Dawkins (6'4, 190; 5*)
Initial ratings: ML .930, VW .935, JP .950

VW: I don't really know what to do with Duke. In the link above Goodman notes that that other than the theoretical Dawkins addition the Blue Devils only have two guys under 6'7 (J. Scheyer, N. Smith). Neither of them are really distributors, and this Dawkins kid is apparently a shooting guard, so I don't know what they're going to do with that. Other than that, though, they look pretty strong; despite my rating, I would lean more towards .950 than .930.

JP: If Plumlee version II is going to make big brother jealous he better gain some frickin’ weight. He’s almost 7’ and weighs 205? I like to think he will be closer to Miles’ 230 by the start of the season. I’m content with Duke .940/5.

Final rating: .943

2. North Carolina

2009 rating: .977
Returning 33% of minutes, 25% of points
Lost Wayne Ellington, Ty Lawson, Tyler Hansbrough, and Danny Green (draft), Bobby Frasor (senior), Alex Stepheson (transfer)
Incoming freshmen: John Henson (6'10, 200; 5*), Dexter Strickland (6'3, 175; 4*), David Wear (6'9, 210; 4*), Travis Wear (6'9, 210; 4*), Leslie McDonald (6'4, 185; 4*)
Initial ratings: ML .910, VW .925, JP .940

ML: They've still go talent, but it's all up front. In the backcourt, it's Ginyard and a bunch of unknowns. It sounds funny saying this about UNC, but I think they're going to be solid defensively while struggling to put the ball in the bucket. It's not apples to apples, but UF went from .985 to .912 after the mass exodus following the 07 title.

VW: It's true that the backcourt is a big question mark, but it seems like they're going to be pretty tough down low. I would be surprised if they dropped all the way to '08 Florida's level; I think they have a lot more coming back than UF did. As another reference point, in '06, after their last mass exodus, UNC came in at .951. Now I doubt that John Henson:2010 :: Tyler Hansbrough:2006, but I don't think that will be necessary. I would maintain that something between .925 and .930 is reasonable for them.

ML: I guess I'm just concerned that Davis/Thompson weren't THAT efficient last year with all that talent surrounding them, so what happens now that everyone is gone? I guess this is somewhat negated by the fact that they'll improve in the offseason. Ultimately I didn't want to rate UNC high for the sake of rating them high, but I probably did not give enough credit to the presences of Zeller and Ginyard. Ginyard has been a good player dating back to his sophomore year.

JP: I may have put a little too much stock into the incoming freshmen with UNC, but I’m not entirely convinced of this. VW brought up a good question when we were discussing the value of 5*’s compared to already established players: Would you rather have two five stars or Lawson? I think the answer lies somewhere in the “it depends’ area, but it would be pretty hard to argue against preferring Ty. On the contrary, I think the loss of Frasor is completely insignificant. If I’m UNC, I’m happy giving his minutes to Drew and/or incoming freshman Strickland. That is, if Larry Drew learns to take care of the ball a bit better this year. With all that being said, I think the average of VW and I is a bit more realistic than the .940 I came up with.

Final rating: .930

3. Maryland
2009 rating: .846
Returning 84% of minutes, 86% of points
Lost Dave Neal (senior), Braxton Dupree (transfer)
Incoming freshmen: Jordan Williams (6'8, 245; 4*), James Padgett (6'8, 217; 3*)
Initial ratings: ML .875, VW .890, JP .880

VW: In my opinion the Terps are pretty clearly the third best team in the conference. Everybody else either lost a lot, or wasn't very good to begin with (looking at you, UVA). Maryland was pretty middling last year, but they're not losing much in Neal. I went searching for some comparable teams, and was surprised to see that improvement in this situation is far from guaranteed:

2008 NCSt: Returned 81% of minutes from the previous year's .855 team (lost Atsur, who was good but only played 56% of minutes the year before), added J.J. Hickson...and managed to drop all the way down to .750.

2007 Wisky: Returned 84% of minutes from the previous year's .853 team, didn't really gain or lose any personnel of significance. Saw their defense improve dramatically (from 67th in the country to 6th), and skyrocketed all the way up to .972, before losing to UNLV in the second round of the tournament.

2008 Mizzou: Returned 89% of minutes from previous year's .872 team, added DeMarre Carroll. Only improved to .890, with their defense holding them back a bit. They were a year away, obviously.

2008 Auburn: Returned 81% of minutes from previous year's .817 team. Did lose Josh Dollard, who was a high usage guy on offense, and apparently a great defender, as their D fell apart without him, going from 184th in the country in 2P FG% against (49.5%) to 332nd (55.4%). Their overall rating fell all the way to .663.

So, there's that I guess. I think our .882 projection for 2010 Maryland is reasonable enough.

Final rating: .882

4. Clemson

2009 rating: .919

Returning 61% of minutes, 55% of points
Lost K.C. Rivers and Raymond Sykes (seniors), Terrence Oglesby (Europe)
Incoming freshmen: Milton Jennings (6'9, 210; 5*), Noel Johnson (6'6, 180; 4*), Devin Booker (6'7, 215; 4*), Donte Hill (6'3, 190; 3*)
Initial ratings: ML .870, VW .865, JP .870

VW: Despite the high turnover, we all pretty much agreed on the Tigers as the #4 team in the conference. Booker returns for his senior year after an impressive 122 ORtg last season, and he'll be complemented down low by the freshman Jennings. We'll see how Stitt handles an increased role with Oglesby overseas.

Final rating: .868

5. Florida St.

2009 rating: .880

Returning 71% of minutes, 57% of points
Lost Toney Douglas, Uche Echefu, Brian Hoff (seniors)
Incoming freshmen: Michael Snaer (6'4, 170; 5*), Terrence Shannon (6'7, 205; 4*)
Initial ratings: ML .855, VW .860, JP .870

ML: The offense is going to be abysmal. Douglas was a high usage-high efficiency guy. Those guys are hard to replace, especially when everyone else on the team blew. Maybe the Snaer kid fills the void a bit. The D will be incredible either way.

VW: The hope for the offense is that last year's recruiting class of Singleton, Kitchen and Gibson (5*, 4*, 4*) takes a big step forward in a more prominent role, and Snaer contributes as well. That's relying on a whole lot of guys who have never even produced at an average rate on the college level, but that's what you subject yourself to when the 100th best offense in the nation loses its #1 guy, among others. A lot of uncertainty here.

Final rating: .862

6. Wake Forest

2009 rating: .911

Returning 63% of minutes, 53% of points
Lost Harvey Hale (senior), James Johnson and Jeff Teague (draft)
Incoming freshmen: Ari Stewart (6'7, 185; 4*), C.J. Harris (6'2, 175; 3*)
Initial ratings: ML .870, VW .870, JP .845

JP: My dogging of Wake is directly attributed to the scoring hole that was created by the departures of Teague and Johnson. I think the difference between %Min/Pts is pretty important to look at; that is the biggest difference besides FSU in the entire conference. I may have overlooked the fact that Aminu has a lot of “upside”, as the pundits like to put it. I’m willing to shift on my opinion a bit, but I’m not nearly as bullish as you guys.

VW: I probably got suckered into Aminu's upside a bit myself, but he does appear primed for a huge year. The problem lies in the backcourt, where Ishmael Smith's insanely high turnover rate could become a serious problem. It's also probably time for L.D. Williams to stop with the threes; he's shooting 31% for his career, and was 12/49 last year.

Final rating: .860

7. Georgia Tech

2009 rating: .725

Returning 73% of minutes, 66% of points
Lost Alade Aminu and Lewis Clinch (seniors)
Incoming freshmen: Derrick Favors (6'9, 220; 5*), Mfon Udofia (6'1, 180; 4*), Kammeon Holsey (6'8, 200; 4*) (nevermind), Daniel Miller (6'10, 235; 3*), Brian Oliver (6'6, 200; 3*), Glen Rice (6'4, 180; 3*)
Initial ratings: ML .815, VW .845, JP .830

VW: I think GT is going to be decent. Their D wasn't terrible last year (32nd in the country); Aminu was a decent part of that, but Clinch certainly wasn't, so they should be pretty strong on that end once again. Their offense is an entirely different story, as they had exactly zero guys with an offensive rating over 102 last year. How much of a difference will Favors and the rest of a very strong recruiting class make? I have no damn idea. I think .815 is light on them though.

ML: I just hate freshmen until I see them play. Favors appears to be a monster though. Even if he's raw, he should be able to bring a lot of the same things to the table defensively that Aminu did. I'm fine with you upping their rating a little.

Final rating: .835

8. Boston College

2009 rating: .805

Returning 84% of minutes, 78% of points
Lost Tyrese Rice (senior)
Incoming freshmen: None
Initial ratings: ML .825, VW .830, JP .860

VW: JP is apparently not concerned with BC's loss of Rice. I think .860 is a bit absurd, as they weren't even all that good WITH Tyrese. Unless you has some enlightening reason for that rating, I think we should keep them at around .830.

JP: I may have been on meth when I came up with .860, but I had some reasoning (albeit weak). I think this Biko Paris is gonna be a very good player, and taking over Rice’s spot should help leverage him to that status. He put up pretty decent numbers in a limited role last year, and he seems to have a similar game to Tyrese. Oh yeah, and Corey Raji HAS to improve on his 7% 3-point shooting, right?

ML: I'm with VW here. How efficient are guys like Trapani and Raji going to be with Rice no longer attracting all the attention? Plus, the defense blows.

Final rating: .833

9. Miami (FL)

2009 rating: .872

Returning 49% of minutes, 45% of points
Lost Jack McClinton, Lance Hurdle, Brian Asbury, and Jimmy Graham (seniors), Eddie Rios (theft)
Incoming freshmen: Durand Scott (6'4, 180; 5*), Donnavan Kirk (6'8, 205; 4*), Garrius Adams (6'5, 180; 3*), Antoine Allen (6'2, 180; 3*)
Initial ratings: ML .835, VW .820, JP .825

ML: Like FSU, they face the difficulty of having to replace their go-to guy in McClinton. At least they retain a few guys who were competent offensively.

VW: Dwayne Collins withdrawing from the draft was huge for them. With Collins and Dews they have a decent enough core coming back, but they just lost so much that the freshmen are going to have to contribute right away. I could see us being WAY off on these guys, one way or the other.

Final rating: .827

10. Virginia Tech

2009 rating: .807

Returning 66% of minutes, 66% of points
Lost A.D. Vassallo, Cheick Diakite (seniors), Hank Thorns (transfer)
Incoming freshmen: Cadarian Raines (6'8, 210; 4*), Manny Atkins (6'5, 195; 3*), Erik Green (6'2, 175; 3*), Ben Boggs (6'4, 180; 3*)
Initial ratings: ML .820, VW .825, JP .800

VW: JP might have a point with his low rating of Va. Tech. Vassallo was a very high usage guy on offense, played 90% of possible minutes, and had pretty good rate stats as well. At this point they pretty much have Delaney on offense, Allen on the boards, and not a whole lot else. I would probably be down to put them right around their '09 rating of .807.

ML: I'm fine with that. Allen made a decent jump from FR to SO year which I made note of, but you can't bank on it happening again. I always wonder what happens when a stat like opponent FT% regresses to the mean a little. There's obviously an effect, I just wonder how big it is.

VW: National OppFTPct median: 68.9%
VT last year: 72.9%
Difference: 4.0%

VT opponents shot 663 FTs last year, so that 4% increased Tech's PA by 26.5. Half of the FTs shot against them were in conference, so if you lower their conference PA from 1203 to 1190, they're now at 1157 PF, 1190 PA in conference, which is a .420 pythag. Without the FT adjustment, their pyth was .390. Pretty big difference, if I did all that correctly.

Final rating: .810

11. Virginia

2009 rating: .683

Returning 89% of minutes, 91% of points
Lost Mamadi Diane and Tunji Soroye (seniors)
Incoming freshmen: Tristan Spurlock (6'8, 215; 4*), Jontel Evans (5'11, 185; 3*)
Initial ratings: ML .820, VW .805, JP .800

ML: I like these guys a lot. Landesburg should dominate and Tucker & Scott are both solid.

VW: You have a generous definition of "a lot", although I suppose it's all relative. There was some discussion in the comments of last week's post about which year players improve the most; I'd have to imagine the answer to that is between FR and SO, with absolutely no evidence to back it up. Either way, I'd imagine Landesberg's freshman line -- 85% of minutes played, high usage percentage, above average ORtg on a crappy offensive team -- translates pretty well for guys who stay in school for their sophomore year.

Final rating: .808

12. North Carolina St.

2009 rating: .782

Returning 47% of minutes, 45% of points
Lost Ben McCauley, Courtney Fells, Simon Harris (seniors), Brandon Constner (undrafted), Trevor Ferguson (transfer)
Incoming freshmen: Lorenzo Brown (6'5, 175; 4*), Richard Howell (6'7, 215; 4*), Deshawn Painter (6'9, 210; 4*), Scott Wood (6'5, 165; 3*)
Initial ratings: ML .760, VW .775, JP .780

VW: Costner sticking around for his senior year probably would have benefitted both sides; it would appear that he's currently playing on the Bulls' D-League team as an undrafted FA. Unless these freshmen are even better than advertised it's probably not going to be much fun in Raleigh this year.

ML: Basically I see this league as one giant mediocre cluster-F. It seems to me that the bottom tier has closed ground on the top. I'm also slightly more down on the league as a whole than you two are.

VW: Are we too down on the ACC as a conference? Here's how our average rating compares to the ACC's avg. ratings the past four years:

Maybe we're pessimistic by nature, or maybe the conference is substantially worse than in years past. Either way, I'm not too worried about this, since I think there's an easy solution -- we can come back after we've done all six conference and see if our average for those 73 teams matches up to the averages in previous years. If it does, great; if not we can just adjust each team a bit so we get there. The important thing is that we get the relative ratings right; I don't know if we've managed to do that, but at least we gave it a shot.

To recap, here are all the ratings in a slightly more condensed format:

Next up: The Big XII. When? I have no idea.