2009 NFL Survivor: Week 1

Last year: 17-0
This year: likely worse.

Zero contestants were eliminated last week.

Teams used: none.

Sorry, just trying to keep the standard format. Here are this week's most popular selections in the ESPN pool:

New Orleans (vs. Detroit)

This is certainly the most obvious option of the week, as you can see from the graphic above. That will likely continue to be the case for any team playing at home against Detroit until the Lions win a game, if they ever do.

Looking at it from a more relevant standpoint, the Saints are tied for the biggest favorite of the week, along with the option described directly below. They aren't really that valuable of a team to save, since they're not all that good to begin with; there's a decent chance that they won't be a viable Survivor option even once the rest of the season. The only real drawback here, beyond the fact that New Orleans could certainly lose, is that picking such a popular side may not maximize one's chances of winning.

Baltimore (vs. Kansas City)

The news that Croyle or Thigpen may start at KC if Cassel can't go has driven this line up to 13, and going against one of those guys with Baltimore's defense is certainly an attractive option. For just this week, they're definitely a better look than NO, since they're just over 1/3 as popular as the Saints in the ESPN contest despite being equally likely to win.

But, unlike New Orleans, the Ravens have significant value in future weeks. They host the Browns, Bengals, and Broncos in the first half of the season, and then the Lions in Week 14. Add this week's game to that list and the Ravens have a pretty hilarious home schedule, even with the Colts and Steelers coming to town in late November.

Looking ahead, it may not be entirely necessary to save Baltimore. In Week 8, when they play Denver, the Chargers host the Raiders in a game that will likely feature one of the higher spreads of the year; SF@IND is also a pretty good option that same week. The Week 14 slate doesn't appear to be quite as strong, although it does feature DEN@IND.

There's also the possibility that since the line is up to 13 and people obviously know about Cassel's status, the Ravens may become a more popular Survivor option as the week goes on; that's definitely something to keep an eye one.

San Diego (at Oakland)

Did I ever end up going with a road team last year? It's possible, but I don't think so. The Chargers are "only" favored by nine this week, and will clearly be favored by double-digits in the future when they host the Broncos, Raiders, Chiefs, and Bengals. Definitely best to pass on this one and root for the Raiders to pull off the big upset and knock out 9% of the field.

Minnesota (at Cleveland)

The Vikings are only favored by four here and are one of the most popular NFL betting picks of the week. No thanks.

New England (vs. Buffalo)

The Patriots are a surprisingly intriguing option here. At -10.5, they're not quite as likely to win as the Saints or Ravens. But they're not nearly as popular as NO, and they may be less valuable to save than the Ravens. Contrast Baltimore's home schedule above with New England's: BUF, ATL, BAL, TEN, MIA, NYJ, CAR, JAX. The Pats will likely be favored in each of those, but there's not a really obvious Survivor play in the bunch.

Seattle (vs. St. Louis)

The spread is only 8.5 at Sportsbook, and the Seahawks host the Lions and 49ers in future weeks. This isn't a terrible option, but I see no compelling reason to settle for it.

That does it for the six most popular options, and I don't see anything else worth considering. In the end I can't bring myself to use Baltimore this week, since they have both the Broncos and Lions -- possibly the two worst teams in the league -- at home later in the year.

That narrows it down to the Saints and Pats. There are three factors to weigh here. According to the Pinnacle MLs, NO is about 3% more likely to win this week (87.3%-84.3%). The Saints, obviously, are a much more popular selection this week -- 40.9% vs. 4.5% in the ESPN pool. Finally, the Saints are nearly useless to save, while the Pats have some value, if not as much as you'd think.

Looking only at this week, the Patriots are the better option, since the combination of them winnning and the Saints losing would put me in such fantastic shape. But it's close, and still having the Pats as an option could come in handy later in the season. So after all that, I'm going with the obvious pick this week and taking New Orleans.