Last week:
MIN: W, 27-13
WAS: W, 9-7
GB: L, 31-24
TEN: L, 34-31
Pretty big week for eliminations, with 26.5% of the ESPN pool getting knocked out and 27.2% of the Yahoo! pool going down.
Teams used (DAVE rank): New Orleans (11th), Washington (16th)
Here are this week's most popular selections in the Yahoo! pool*:
*I've switched from the ESPN data to Yahoo! after discovering that the former lets you make picks well ahead of time, while in the Yahoo! pool you can only make picks for Week 3 right now. I think picks someone made on ESPN a month ago are skewing the data with useless information.
Baltimore (vs. Cleveland)
Easily the most attractive option of the week, with the Ravens favored by 13 at Pinnacle, which is four more points than anyone else. Unfortunately I'm not the only one who has realized this, as you can see in the graphic above. Baltimore is the team most likely to win this weekend, but it's worth continuing to search for a better option both because they're so popular, and because they host the Bengals, Broncos, and Lions in later weeks.
Green Bay (@ St. Louis)
Well this certainly isn't it. The Packers are only favored by 6.5, and are an exceedingly popular choice at the consensus sites.
Philadelphia (vs. Kansas City)
Under normal circumstances the Eagles would be a solid option here, but Philly's circumstances this week are so abnormal that there isn't even a line for this game yet; neither McNabb nor Westbrook practiced on Wednesday. Definitely not interested idn getting involved here.
NY Giants (@ Tampa Bay)
This is almost a carbon copy of the Green Bay game, and you saw how attractive I found that matchup. The 2-0 Giants are only laying 6.5 on the road against the 0-2 Bucs, and are predictably getting pounded at the consensus sites.
Dallas (vs. Carolina)
Here's the only Week 3 option that is even comparable to Baltimore. The Cowboys are nine-point favorites on Monday night, aren't very popular either ATS at the consensus sites or in the big Survivor contests, and don't appear to have a lot of future value, with the possible exception of Week 12 vs. Oakland.
According to the Pinnacle money lines, the Ravens are 86.4% to win, while Dallas comes in at 77.3%. When you consider the Yahoo! consensus data, it's basically a wash; if you look at ESPN's numbers, Baltimore comes out slightly ahead. I think it's close enough that who you pick depends on the size of your pool. If you're in a very large pool that's likely to last deep into the season, I'd go with Dallas -- the Ravens could be extremely valuable in Week 14 against Detroit, especially considering over 60% of the Yahoo! pool has already used Baltimore in just three weeks.
In a smaller pool, one which is unlikely to last much past midseason, I'd probably take the Ravens, since having Baltimore available in Week 14 isn't very helpful if your pool is over by Week 9. For the "official" blog pick though, I'll go with the Cowboys.
15 comments:
why are you so against the consensus? So far the consensus from Wagerline are 14-4 overall and even 12-6 covering the spread.
What a huge sample size Natan.
Anyway VW, 90 left out of a 160 or so pool...I'm thinking of going Dallas and hoping for Baltimore to drop. Thoughts?
JBD
That's really tough, I don't have a strong opinion either way, I'd say take your chances with the Cowboys.
James, the point is not the sample size. The point is the concept of not picking with the public.
I would think if the public were betting heavily on one side, Vegas would move the lines to have more equal betting (ie. NO getting pounded and the line moving from -3.5 to -6 vs BUF). If they didn't move the line with heavy betting on one side, then Vegas thinks the public is wrong (like MIN-CLE in week 1).
The 2 games mentioned above moved .5 a point, which I have no idea what to make of.
I'm in a small pool and used Baltimore week 1. I'm choosing between Dal or Min(vs San Fran) this week. I'm leaning Dal but I'm wondering your take.
"I'm in a small pool and used Baltimore week 1. I'm choosing between Dal or Min(vs San Fran) this week. I'm leaning Dal but I'm wondering your take."
I'd go with the Cowboys. They're about 6% more likely to win (77% vs. 71%), not unreasonably popular, and the Vikings still have Detroit at home in Week 10.
Yeah I think I'm rolling with the Cowboys and hoping for a Dallas loss.
JBD
Excellent typo.
Yeah I was massively hungover this morning.
I'm in a pool with 234 people and 90 are out. I'm thinking about Green Bay or Dallas. I'm confident that the Rams won't cover let alone win but I'm worried Jake Delhomme is going to break out of his recent slump...thoughts?
Dallas, if those are the two options.
I am in one super deep pool and throwing around the idea of using the Eagles. You may remember this from last year where, starting next week, I have to use two teams if a certain threshold of picks is still alive, which it will definitely be for week 4. Thoughts?
If as many people are really picking the Eagles as the Yahoo! numbers indicate, and I think that's probably correct, I'd just go with Dallas.
Didn't even consider MIN vs. SF?
I ask because I am considering them in a pretty small pool (about 30 players left). I'm unable to pick the Ravens, and I feel pretty torn between PHI, DAL, and MIN. Your insight on the MIN vs. SF game would be helpful to me in making a decision.
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