Last week:
BAL: W, 34-3
GB: W, 36-17
PHI: W, 34-14
NYG: W, 24-0
DAL: W, 21-7
Not a strong week for eliminations, with the five most popular selections each winning by at least two TDs. The Redskins and Steelers did knock a few misguided people out; 7.0% of the Yahoo! pool failed to advance.
Teams used (DAVE rank): New Orleans (4th), Dallas (11th), Washington (19th)
Here are this week's most popular selections in the Yahoo! pool:
NY Giants (at Kansas City)
By far the biggest mismatch of the week, with the only issue being the game's location. This may come as a surprise, but the Giants are only favored by 8.5, and their money line (-375 at Pinnacle) is only the fourth most attractive of the week. Combine that with the fact they'll be valuable in future weeks (vs OAK, vs ARI, vs CAR), and the large number of people taking them this week, and there's no reason to use New York here.
San Francisco (vs. St. Louis)
The 49ers are -430/+370 (79.2%) at Pinnacle, and are favored by nine points. They're fairly popular ATS at the consensus sites and in the Yahoo! contest, and it looks like their only future value will come at home against the Lions in Week 16. This is just a solid pick; nothing about it is spectacular, but there aren't many drawbacks either. Definite possibility.
Chicago (vs. Detroit)
So the Lions win one game...at home...barely...against a pretty questionable Washington team...and suddenly they're both a much less popular fade in Survivor and a public dog at Wagerline? That Detroit win last week was actually very helpful in this contest if it means fewer people are going to be picking against them each week; they're still just 31st in DAVE (the Browns have taken over the bottom spot, congratulations to them).
The Bears have some favorable home matchups the rest of the way, hosting both Cleveland and St. Louis. Chicago is favored by slightly more than the 49ers (-450/+390, 80.0%), and a bit less popular in the Yahoo! contest, but I'd also rather have use of them in Weeks 5-17 than SF, so it's quite close between the two.
(It's also worth noting that the Bears are the most popular pick (32.5%) in the ESPN pool. That information is worth something, but it's also a good example of why I switched over to the Yahoo! data. There's no question that most of those people took Chicago before last weekend, when the Lions hadn't won in 21 months and were an obvious "lock" to lose all their road games. I really think Yahoo! not allowing you to make picks more than a week in advance makes it much more comparable to actual office pools.)
Indianapolis (vs. Seattle)
There's no line for this game at the moment, although the SportsBetting prospective odds had the Colts as a 7.5-point favorite in this matchup a week ago. It's looking like Hasselback won't play, but I'm not ]interested in getting involved here.
Cincinnati (at Cleveland)
I realize the Browns are horrible, but since when are the Bengals a viable Survivor pick on the road? Cincinnati is only favored by 5.5 here, this would be a terrible selection.
Houston (vs. Oakland)
The Texans are favored by nine at the moment, and are receiving fairly split action at the consensus sites. Their ML comes in at -415/+355 (78.6%) at Pinnacle, which is essentially equivalent to San Francisco and Chicago. What makes the Texans more attractive than those other two, at least if you just isolate this week, is their lack of popularity in the Yahoo! contest (they're also only at 6.2% in the ESPN pool).
Houston is pretty much useless going forward, as their five remaining home games come against San Francisco, Tennessee, Indianapolis, Seattle, and New England. I thought this week was going to be a difficult decision between the 49ers and Bears, but it looks like I was wrong; the Texans are the pick.
18 comments:
Indy just went up as a 10.5 point favorite. I think they're worth considering as a) they're not extremely popular in the Yahoo pool, and b) they don't have much value besides Week 7 @ St. Louis and Week 14 vs. Denver.
In a very small pool of 30+ with only 17 remaining, would you still go with Houston? I was counting on SF being the pick.
"Indy just went up as a 10.5 point favorite."
Of course the line goes up 15 minutes after I finish the writeup. Thanks for posting though.
Colts are definitely a legit option, according to the Olympic MLs they are 80.6% to win while Houston is 78.6%. Two issues with Indy:
-While they're not a popular selection *now*, I'd imagine they will be now that there's a line out and it's the only one of the week in double digits. This is especially true in more "sophisticated" pools, where more people wait until later in the week to submit their picks and pay more attention to the line.
-Along with the two weeks you mentioned, the Colts could have value in W8 (vs. SF, who I don't think is actually good) and W9 (vs. HOU). Those aren't locks to be plays (far from it), but there is definitely value in having that option, which you don't get with the Texans.
I'll give it some more thought tomorrow, and am curious to see the Pinny ML when they release it, but for now I'm leaning towards staying with Houston.
"In a very small pool of 30+ with only 17 remaining, would you still go with Houston?"
Why not?
Remember the info I posted after week 1 on the logistic regression using DVOA margin and HFA to predict the chances of winning a game? Well, I'm still keeping track of those predictions, so just for ships and giggles, here is what those odds say about the games you reviewed (first number is using DAVE, second is using the weighting that VW came up with):
NYG 77%/82%
SF 63%/70%
CHI 86%/86%
IND 80%/81%
CIN 77%/83%
HOU 66%/68%
No other games are over 80% for either weighting.
Another thing on the Colts is that my big pool continues into the playoffs, so I definitely have to take Houston in that one.
Vegas Watch said: "Another thing on the COlts is that my big pool continues into the playoffs, so I definitely have to take Houston in that one."
I'm in a Survivor League with the following format:
- Each player gets 3 strikes
- The league continues into the playoffs
- 150+ entries
- Top 3 eliminations are paid.
This is my first time participating, but last year, the league came down to the SuperBowl. Both players had Arizona left. They tied for first.
What changes, if any, would you recommend from a strategic perspective? I'm trying to save likely playoff teams as long as I can -- I'm playing Houston this week, and have already played New Orleans, Washington, and Dalls.
How aggressive is optimal strategy? Can you think of a good way to track and weight performance? (Combination of DAVE and Playoff Likelihood of teams remaining for all players + Strikes acquired, etc.)
Thanks,
Deebs
Deebs,
I would definitely take the DVOA playoff odds into consideration each week; a lot of times the make the decision for you, like with the Houston/Indianapolis situation this week.
You also should probably be more willing to sacrifice % chance of winning in any particular week in order to save teams for the playoffs because of the three strike thing. I don't have any particular formula to offer, but we can certainly go through it in the comments here when necessary.
Houston's strength is its passing offense, and that's precisely where Oakland is strong.
Anyway, VW, I've been reading the blog since I discovered it last year, and your advice helped lead me to first place in my Survivor league. I just wanted to say thanks for your posts; they're tremendously helpful.
VW,
Did you ever give anymore thought to the Indy pick? Also, to follow up on what Micahel said in regards to the teams strenghts, obviously Oakland's strength (well, what they are not the worst at) offensively is running the ball. Houston's run D has basically been a swinging gate this year. Kind of scares me a little.
"Also, to follow up on what Micahel said in regards to the teams strenghts, obviously Oakland's strength (well, what they are not the worst at) offensively is running the ball. Houston's run D has basically been a swinging gate this year. Kind of scares me a little."
It's factored into the line.
Did you ever give anymore thought to the Indy pick?
I have not, but let's do that now.
According to the Pinny MLs, Indy is 82.8% to win right now, while Houston is 78.3%. The tricky thing here is how often the two teams are actually going to be picked in any real pool. Yahoo! says 9.6% for the Colts, and 6% for the Texans; I don't buy that. Let's say 18% for Indy, and 5% for Houston. That still makes the Colts more attractive before you factor in their future value, which is limited. In a straight pool -- no playoffs, one loss and you're out -- I'd probably go with Indy. If the playoffs are involved, or if you get more than one "strike" (or both, like Deebs' pool), I think Houston is the clear choice.
HEY Vegas Watch,
I think I was to go with either Indy or NY Giants this week.
Oakland kind of scares me this week and can easily pull upset against the texans this week.
if u are choosing between the giants and Indy this week, who would be the better choice?
Thanks,
VW - How long before you get hired at ESPN as a Survivor Guru?
"if u are choosing between the giants and Indy this week, who would be the better choice?"
The Colts.
"VW - How long before you get hired at ESPN as a Survivor Guru?"
I realize this was said with tongue firmly in cheek, but I tried to pitch this weekly article to Jimmy Traina at SI last year and it didn't work. Probably a good thing, really, because I think this blog would be a lot less interesting from September to December without these posts.
A little late to the game here, but how do your guys' pools work that go into the playoffs? What if you had neither Pitt nor Arizona left last year in the Super Bowl? Do you just get a strike or eliminated if it's a one and done?
Yep. Because of both that and the payout ($100K to the winner, $0 for everyone else), I think there is usually some kind of deal worked out once they get down to a few people.
i am also scared of oakland this week....i think they can beat anybody any given week.....with that said, i really like san fran this week a lot. kyle "I should of been a" bowler is starting and i can not see any way he can lead the rams to victory over a very MAD and ANGRY 9ers team who lost on a last second fluke miracle play...
I guess i'm just asking do you also feel this strongly about SAN FRAN??
I'm starting to regret my SF pick.
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