Last week:
NYG: W, 27-16
SF: W, 35-0
CHI: W, 48-24
IND: W, 34-17
CIN: W, 23-20
HOU: W, 29-6
Another terrible week for eliminations, with just 1.8% of the Yahoo! field being eliminated.
Teams used (DAVE rank): New Orleans (2nd), Dallas (14th), Houston (18th), Washington (19th)
Here are this week's most popular selections in the Yahoo! pool:
Pittsburgh (at Detroit)
Do people just not understand the concept of home-field advantage? That is honestly the only reasoning I can come up with to explain how the Steelers are more popular than the two teams discussed below. Pittsburgh has not looked as good as the Giants or Eagles over the first four weeks of the season, and is the only one of the three playing on the road. Sure, Detroit isn't good, but they did win at home a couple weeks ago, and they may well end up being better than both the Raiders and Bucs when all is said and done.
Another reason not to take the Steelers this week, beyond the relative shortness of the line and their mystifying popularity in these Survivor pools, is their immense value in future weeks. Pittsburgh hosts the Browns, Bengals, and Raiders, and also travels to Kansas City in Week 11. It may eventually be difficult to figure out when to pull the trigger on the Steelers, but it seems pretty obvious that the answer is not "Week 5".
NY Giants (vs. Oakland)
Philadelphia (vs. Tampa Bay)
Might as well just go ahead and group these two together from the start, since at first glance they're the two best options of the week, and they're clearly similar.
Likelihood of winning: It's a tie, with both teams currently favored -950/+770 (88.7%) at Pinnacle.
Popularity: The Giants are slightly more popular in the Yahoo! contest (23% vs. 18%), and more than twice as popular (21% vs. 9%) in the ESPN contest. Clear advantage to the Eagles here, although not a huge one.
Future value: Considering the strength of these two teams, there are going to be surprisingly few opportunities to take them in the season's final 12 weeks. Both have one game in which they'll be favored by 9.5, according to the current SBET prospective lines: New York hosts Carolina in Week 16, and the Eagles play Washington in Philly in Week 12.
Beyond that, though, there's not much; I suspect that the Giants will be favored by more than the 6.5 SBET currently has them at in Week 7 against the Cardinals, but the chances of that rounding into a Survivor play are slim. This category is essentially a draw, although it does make both plays even more appealing.
Putting the two options up against each other in those three categories reveals that the Eagles are a slightly superior option. Now we just have to go through the other games and make sure that holds true overall.
Dallas (at Kansas City)
The Cowboys are favored by nine (although the juice heavily favors KC), and are about 76% to win at Pinnacle. They are less popular than the Eagles, but the difference isn't nearly big enough to make up for the gap in win probability. Dallas also has more future value than Philly, with a home game against Oakland in Week 12 that SBET currently has lined at -14. There is no way I'm taking the Cowboys over the Eagles (especially since I've already used Dallas in this pool).
Minnesota (at St. Louis)
Pretty much the same deal here. The Vikings are favored by 9.5, and are around 81% to win. They've been selected by fewer than one in 10 people in the Yahoo! pool, but even if literally nobody was picking them they wouldn't be a better option than Philly. They also have some legitimate Survivor value in their future, hosting the lowly Lions in Week 10.
Baltimore (vs. Cincinnati)
This one interested me at first because so few people are picking the Ravens; just 0.7% in the Yahoo! pool. They're 77% to win at Pinnacle, which is solid but doesn't exactly compare favorably with Philly, and they are definitely worth saving, with home games against Detroit (W14) and Oakland (W17).
It doesn't look like any of the other options are even all that close, so the Eagles are the pick this week.
15 comments:
That is honestly the only reasoning I can come up with to explain how the Steelers are more popular than the two teams discussed below
Perhaps a lot of people have used both. Plus Eli is hurt, and Donovon's first game back. Either way, I'll take it and be on the Eagles.
Also...for the irrelevant but interesting stat of the day; Andy Reid is 10-0 coming off of bye weeks.
Baltimore - I think a lot of people in the yahoo pool have used Baltimore already in week 1 or 3.
VW,
I agree with you about Philly but wouldn't you want to save Philly for week 6 vs. Oakland and use NY this week?
Week 6...when GB hosts Detroit & Jacksonville hosts StL? Why save a team to use them on the road when two home teams will likely be better options?
James,
Good looking out, I did notice the GB game for next week but I blanked. Guess I know who I'm going with tomorrow!
god i love this weekly feature. saves me hours of homework. keep up the excellent work VW.
Largely agree with the analysis here, but my conclusion differs. IMO, the Giants have to be considered slightly more likely to win this week (-15 vs. -14.5) and with slightly less future value (Week 16 when many pools will be over vs. Week 12 for the Eagles).
I guess what it comes down to for me is my pool's savviness. Their picks haven't tracked Yahoo's very closely over the first 4 weeks (Texans were the most popular pick last week) and I think Giants-Eagles will be split pretty close to 50-50 among people choosing one of those two teams this week. This makes the Giants the pick for me.
"Largely agree with the analysis here, but my conclusion differs. IMO, the Giants have to be considered slightly more likely to win this week (-15 vs. -14.5)"
No, using the spread before adjusting for juice is not an acceptable argument here. Even if you're going to use the spread and ignore the money line, which doesn't even really make sense, the equivalent for the Eagles' line is -15 -107, which is eight cents better than the Giants line.
"Baltimore - I think a lot of people in the yahoo pool have used Baltimore already in week 1 or 3."
W1: 20.9%
W2: 0.1%
W3: 43.5%
W4: 0.1%
Certainly a fair point, but even if 65% of people have already used them, only 2% of the people who have them available are taking them. It's mostly because there are so many other good options, and a lot of people are overrating the Bengals at the moment.
No, using the spread before adjusting for juice is not an acceptable argument here. Even if you're going to use the spread and ignore the money line, which doesn't even really make sense, the equivalent for the Eagles' line is -15 -107, which is eight cents better than the Giants line.
This is obviously right, especially the part about using the moneyline since that is exactly what we need to predict, but I agree with LMQ that, in a shallow pool, the Giants are a slightly better pick.
I can't believe that I'm the one brigning this up, but what about the injury concerns at QB? McNabb is going for Philly while Eli hasn't practiced all week, andd NYG is playing one of the few teams in the league they could actually beat with David Carr.
My guess is that Eli will play too, but if he doesn't then that line will plummet. Seems like a decent tie breaker to me if you still think all things are equal after reading the post.
FWIW, Football Outsiders have NYG and PHI as 1 and 2, respectively, in order of confidence for straight picks this week. I'm not sure if they are based strictly on DVOA/DAVE or tries to adjust for injury. Regardless, i think the size of the pool determines your pick between the two if both are available. It's more likely that my pool will be over by week 16, so NYG are my pick.
this % might be more real for paid pools (as posted on http://survivingonsunday.blogspot.com)-
1 Giants 32.1%
2 Eagles 31.3%
3 Steelers 12.8%
4 Vikings 10.3%
5 Cowboys 6.1%
6 Bills 2.4%
7 Ravens 2.1%
8 Panthers 1.1%
9 Cardinals0.6%
10 Colts 0.4%
11 Jets 0.2%
12 Patriots 0.1%
13 49ers 0.1%
14 Jaguars 0.1%
I was just thinking of an issue with using the Yahoo selections. Yahoo allows users to sign up in the middle of the season and pick. So if several hundred people sign up in between weeks, it will skew the numbers.
Better than ESPN, though not as good as OFP if you are looking for the selections of your actual league.
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