Last week:
PIT: W, 28-20
NYG: W, 44-7
PHI: W, 33-14
DAL: W, 26-20
MIN: W, 38-10
BAL: L, 17-14
Third straight, and fourth of five, slow week for eliminations, with 5.3% of the Yahoo! pool going down.
Teams used (DAVE rank): Philadelphia (3rd), New Orleans (4th), Dallas (11th), Washington (20th), Houston (21st)
On the recommendations of Matt and Natan, I'm using both OFP and Yahoo! for the consensus numbers this week:
Pittsburgh (vs. Cleveland)
The Steelers are -940/+760 (88.6%) to win at Pinnacle, and are an extremely popular selection according to the OFP numbers. They don't have a crazy amount of future value, but they do play Cincy at home in Week 10, and host Oakland in Week 13. This is a reasonable enough pick, but it'd be nice to find something not quite as popular and with less future value that doesn't give up too much probability of advancing.
Philadelphia (at Oakland)
It's just unfortunate that this game is in Oakland, really, because this had the potential to be a pretty hilarious line. As it stands, the Eagles are "only" favored by 14, and are -840/+660 (87.2%) to win at Pinnacle. PHI -14 is also incredibly public: 81% at Wagerline, and 93% at SIA. It's interesting that they're so much less popular in OFP than Yahoo!; that might indicate that the OFP population is a bit more advanced, and possibly even understands the concept of home-field advantage.
I've already used the Eagles because of their lack of future value. Home games late in the year against Washington and San Francisco both have some potential, but aren't all that appealing.
Green Bay (vs. Detroit)
Despite being favored by 13.5 and -700/+570 (85.4%) to win, the Packers aren't nearly as popular as the Steelers in either pool. Looking at those two variables, Pittsburgh remains the slightly more attractive option. But this is by far Green Bay's easiest game the rest of the year; it's unlikely that any of their games from here on out end up being legitimate options. Considering how ridiculous the line on OAK @ PIT may end up being in Week 13, that makes Green Bay a better selection than Pittsburgh this week.
Jacksonville (vs. St. Louis)
NY Jets (vs. Buffalo)
New England (vs. Tennessee)
All three of these teams are favored by 9.5 points at home, and are about 80% to win. They're less popular selections than Green Bay, but not enough so to make up for the four-point difference in the line. Each also has some future value, with both the Jets and Pats hosting the Panthers down the road, and the Chiefs coming to Jacksonville in Week 9.
No other team is favored by more than a touchdown, so the Packers are the pick this week.
8 comments:
I think the reason the Philly number is so off is that in OFP the Eagles were a huge pick in both week 3 and week 5, so most people can't take them this week. In my league, only 18% of people left can take them, so the 16% is a normal number. [My league has had to pick 2 teams since week 4.]
Whereas in Yahoo, I can sign up this week and go pick Philly.
Okay, but there can't be a huge segment of the population that signs up for Survivor pools in Week 6, enough to more than double their percentage.
Well, looking at the Yahoo public numbers, in the past week there have been 350 new leagues each with 50 members. Thats 17,500 new people this week alone.
Now, roughly 140,000 are perfect from week 1. If 70% of those perfect entries took Philly that means 35,000 can still take Philly.
If 30,000 people signed up in the last 2 weeks (a conservative number), that can make a HUGE difference in the percentages, especially because no one took Philly last week when they were on a bye.
92 left in my pool. Would you consider that big enough to save Pittsburgh?
Teams used:
Baltimore Washington Dallas Houston Philadelphia
I don't want to use Pitt in W10 b/c I have Minny available. W13 for them does make sense, however.
Have you seen next week? Brutal. Giants or a road team IMO.
Seems like your pool will very likely still be going in W13, right? I'd stick with GB.
Could end up going with the Colts @ STL next week.
Choice of Green Bay or Philly -- Which one?
Would have taken the Pack even if I still had the Eagles available.
Here was the breakdown. I selected GB
Carolina - 1
Denver - 1
Green Bay - 20
Indy - 1
Jacksonville - 8
N.E. - 4
NYJ - 9
Phili - 25
Pitt - 21
Tampa - 1
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