Last week:
PIT: W, 27-14
PHI: L, 13-9
GB: W, 26-0
JAC: W, 23-20 (OT)
NYJ: L, 16-13 (OT)
NE: W, 59-0
We finally had some people knocked out in the late games on Sunday; 44.4% of the Yahoo! pool was eliminated, nearly as high a percentage as the first four weeks combined (47.1%). There are now 75,742 entries remaining in the Yahoo! pool, and 38 left in the VW ESPN group.
Teams used (DAVE rank): New Orleans (2nd), Philadelphia (4th), Green Bay (9th), Dallas (12th), Houston (20th), Washington (22nd)
This week's consensus numbers from OFP and Yahoo!:
The consensus this week is pretty astounding, if understandable. The Colts and Patriots are both very obvious huge favorites, and no other team is laying more than a touchdown. As much as I'd love to come up with something clever, it's not worth sacrificing that much likelihood of advancing just for the sake of being different, and I have already used two of the three seven point favorites (GB and PHI, with NYG being the third) anyway.
Indianapolis (at St. Louis)
Coming off a bye, the Colts are favored by 13 on the road against the Rams, and are -700/+570 (85.4%) to win at Pinnacle. I would certainly expect them to come away with the win in St. Louis, but it's hard to imagine that the line isn't at least slightly inflated. Indianapolis is on pace to be the most popular NFL side in the history of Wagerline this week, receiving an insane 87% of the action thus far. The numbers are pretty ridiculous at the other consensus sites as well; 96% at SIA, and 100% (!) at Sportsbook. So that is definitely something worth taking into consideration when thinking about how likely the Colts are to win.
The Colts are certainly a popular Survivor pick, but so is their only competition; I'd say that's pretty much a wash. In terms of future value, that Week 13 game against Tennessee jumps out after the Titans' showing last Sunday (which dropped them to 29th in DAVE); home games against the 49ers, Texans, and Jets are potential options as well. Indy has about as much future value as you'd expect from DAVE's #1 ranked team.
New England (vs. Tampa Bay in London)
The Patriots are favored by a bit more (14.5) than the Colts, with the odds giving them an 89.0% chance of emerging from London victorious. That figure should be take with a grain of salt as well, since the Pats are rather popular ATS themselves at the consensus sites (78%/94%/97% at WL/SIA/SB), but the action on NE isn't quite as lopsided as the action on IND. Either way, just from an advancing to Week 8 standpoint, the Patriots are a more attractive pick.
Since we have established that for our purposes the teams are equally popular in Survivor, that leaves only New England's future value to consider. The Pats don't have anything that stands out as much as Indy's game against the Titans, although they do face the Dolphins, Jets, and Panthers at home. It'd be nice to be able to save them, but since they are favored by more and not as popular ATS, and the Colts have a more favorable schedule down the stretch while appearing to be the stronger team, New England is the pick this week.
23 comments:
I could be mistaken but I believe Yahoo shows eliminations on a week by week basis. The percentage they show is how many were eliminated that week, not related to the initial amount signed up. So 44.4% of the people remaining were eliminated last week, not 44.4% of the pool. Through six weeks about 67% of the yahoo pool has been eliminated.
I'm surprised you didn't mention that the Patiots are playing the game in London, making it a neutral site game and not a true road game.
Also they are playing Tampa Bay, not KC.
To follow up on the Yahoo comment, roughly 35% of entries that were perfect from week 1 were eliminated. People who entered after week 1 are messing up the ratios.
My fault on the various London/KC/TB screw ups, was writing this up too quickly at work this morning. Should be fixed now.
I get what you guys were saying on the Yahoo! data, I was just trying to throw together a quick stat comparing how difficult the various weeks have been to survive through. Does anyone happen to have the data on how many people have been left in the Yahoo! pool after each week?
Eliminated
Week Percent Incorrect Most Picked
Week 1 5.76% ARI (2.32%)
Week 2 27.11% GNB (17.67%)
Week 3 7.00% WAS (2.69%)
Week 4 1.82% TEN (0.56%)
Week 5 5.37% BUF (2.15%)
Week 6 44.43% PHI (34.58%)
Sorry if that looks confusing. Just go here
http://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/survival/overallresults
But that's just percent of people who got it incorrect, rather than % of people with perfect entries who got knocked out each week, right?
I have managed to put myself in quite a bind here as I have already used Indy, NE and GB (as well as Philly). SD is the next most popular pick I have available. That is who I was considering, but looking at the spreads now, The Giants, the Saints and Jets have a larger spread. What are your thoughts on these options I have available?
TIA
Tough spot Keith, I'd probably have to go with the Giants there. Highest spread of the three, the Saints are pretty public at -6, and I wouldn't be too thrilled about relying on the Jets on the road.
I like the Colts option better myself. Assuming I make it, I'll likely be using the Steelers in week 13 (home vs Oakland) and NE in week 14 (home vs Carolina). I used Baltimore in my main pool in week 3 (I'm a Cowboy fan, so I stayed away in all pools except yours oddly) so I can't take them at home against Detroit in week 14. I haven't mapped everything out yet, so I may have to use Pitt before Week 13 which would ruin my plan, but oh well. It made sense last night when I had to get my pick in.
If one of your choices for a team is home field advantage then in actuality I think the Pats have this going for them. I believe that the Pats' name recognition in Europe is more popular then Tampa Bay's. Safe to say there will be more Pat's jersey sprinkled in the mix than the Bucs. Also, I think Brady will serve as the mini-me version of Beckham in regards to sports personalities (U.S. of course). With all of these going for the Pats they are, obviously, THE choice. Couple that with NE's schedule down the stretch then I have to agree with VW (as if it matters though =) ).
If I had the Pats available, I'd take them, but I probably could have decided that without guessing at player celebrity status.
Colts for me.
VW,
Yea, I agree with you on the Giants out of those 3. Esp now that it looks like Boldin could miss as well. However, lines for the Buffalo vs. Carolina game are starting to come out now that it looks like Edwards won't play. It looks Carolina is -7 as well. It's really hard to depend on Carolina (as they have their QB issues as well), but the NYG obviously have far more future value, as I would most likely never consider using the Panther's in normal circumstances. With the similar spreads and that considered, do you like Carolina more than NYG if that was your 2 best options?
Thanks again
Agree with everything you said Keith, didn't expect the BUF/CAR line to be that high, but now that it is I think taking the Panthers is the right move.
Too much risk taking NYG and CAR in a survivor ppool re-buy starting this week - 2 picks a week - saving IND/NYG for later weeks? Thanks.
Robert -- I'm having a hard time figuring how how much risk you should be taking in a pool like that. It would probably make some sense to go with something like NE/CAR, but I'm honestly not sure.
VW, The only thing I have a problem with picking the NE game is that it's in London... do you think that will pump up the spirits of the Bucs and make them try harder? Just don't want to see an upset because it's in another country
Thanks
B
I'm going to spare you the embarrassment of seeing a reply from VegasWatch on that one, Bobby, and just tell you explicitly without further comment: no.
Heh... that's funny adam, because I was thinking the same thing as Bobby. Not necessarily that the Bucs will be particularly pumped up, but that the travel time, the time zone change, and the neutral foreign site all might be equalizers. I'd be hesitant to pick any team in a game with X factors like that in play.
I love Google.
"But that's just percent of people who got it incorrect, rather than % of people with perfect entries who got knocked out each week, right?"
In yahoo!, there are different settings a commish can use. In mine, you can't keep picking after you've been knocked out. In others, they let the commish pick the "number of strikes," I think up to three. And they also give all commishes the option of resetting the entire group. Also, "If you're eliminated from a Public Group, you'll be allowed to join a new group beginning the Tuesday following your elimination." So it's a mixed bag to say the least.
I'm in a pool with about 40 people and you get 3 strikes. I'm thinking to win I'll have to go strikeless. More than half the people already have 1 strike but it will likely last to the end. I've already used NE so would I be better off just to take the colts now or save them for later and use NYG or CAR right now? And if so which one?
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