Likelihood of MLB Playoff Sweeps (1999-2009)

This is pretty random, but I was curious so I decided to look into it. It seemed like the Yankees' ALDS sweep was one of the more predictable sweeps in recent memory, while the Dodgers taking down the Cardinals in three came as a bit of a surprise. Covers has lines going back all the way to 1999, so using those I determined the odds of each of the 23 sweeps since then; 17 in the DS, and six in the CS/WS (let me know if I missed anything there). Here they are, from most to least likely:

The Yankees' sweep was indeed the least surprising series shutout since '99; it helps to have a 77% chance of winning Game 1. The #2 finisher was the 100-win Cardinals against the 82-win Padres in '05.

The '00 Cards actually had HFA in that series against the Braves, but they were still dogs against Maddux and Glavine in St. Louis, and then Millwood was a large favorite against Garrett Stephenson in the final game.

I promise I didn't intend for STL to dominate the extremes of this list, but beating both Johnson and Schilling on the road in '02 is even more impressive; that one only gets knocked down to second least likely because they were about 60% to win at home against Batista in G3.

It's not particularly surprising, since there are only six of them, but none of the four-game sweeps have been particularly unlikely; if each game is a coin flip, each team had a 6.25% chance of sweeping, which is what the White Sox come in at at the bottom of the list. Compare that to 12.5% for a three-game series, a mark which 10 of the 17 teams are below, which is rather incredible.