Updated 2009 NFL Wins Over/Unders

Bodog has posted revised win totals for a few notable teams. Here they are, compared to the numbers Bodog had for each team back in May, and the rates at which each team would have to win the rest of the season to hit their new total:

Even during their hot start, the Bengals' DVOA was only -2.6%, so .545 definitely seems optimistic for their true talent level. However, part of that is because of schedule: Cincinnati still has games against the Browns, Lions, and Chiefs at home, and Oakland on the road. Their revised total still seems a bit high, but FO has them finishing with 9.5 wins, so it's close.

Despite their record, DVOA actually has the Jets having played better than Cincy, with New York coming in at +8.4%. FO thinks they'll be a bit better than the Bengals the rest of the way, and puts their mean win total at 9.1, so everybody is in agreement there.

I'm not sold on Tennessee being a .500 team at this point after their -28.1% DVOA performance over the last five weeks. It's not like their remaining schedule is a walk in the park either. FO says 4.7 wins, and I'd have to agree with the under there, especially at only -105 at Bodog.

I hate to be the one to obsess with recent results, but: the Titans are better than the Broncos!? Denver's remaining schedule includes an interesting combination of very difficult games (@BAL, @IND, @PHI), and fairly straightforward ones (@KC, vsOAK, vsKC). FO strongly disagrees with this total, putting the Broncos at 11.2 wins, and I'd have to side with them here -- pegging Denver as a .409 team (give or take, based on SOS) after how they've played over the last five weeks seems unreasonable. The only problem with this is that the juice on the over is up to -125.

Carolina has been bad, certainly, but they do have a win under their belt, and home games remaining against the Bills and Bucs; 5.5 seems about right (FO says 5.0).

The last two are pretty funny. They definitely both seem low to me, but let's go through some line guesses for their future games to find out. Here are line estimates for the Rams based on DAVE, the LVSC, and SportsBetting's prospective lines, followed by my guess and how likely that'd make them to win each contest:

Some of those SBET lines are pretty ridiculous. It does look the over is the way to go with St. Louis, but not by all that much, and it's currently -130 at Bodog.

Now, for the Bucs:

That's quite ugly; at -130, there doesn't look to be value in the over two wins for the Bucs.