Last week:
ATL: W, 31-17
SEA: W, 32-20
GB: L, 38-28
NO: W, 30-20
NE: W, 27-17
OFP had 11.6% of entries knocked out last week, and Yahoo lost 16.8%; the vast majority of this in both pools was because of Green Bay. There are 51,150 entries left in the Yahoo! pool.
Teams used (DAVE rank): New England (1st), New Orleans (2nd), Philadelphia (4th), Dallas (5th), Green Bay (9th), Houston (14th), San Diego (18th), Seattle (21st), Washington (23rd).
This week's consensus numbers from OFP and Yahoo!:
Minnesota (vs. Detroit)
The Vikings are favored by 16.5 and are 91.0% to win. That's a pretty convincing argument.
The immediately obvious reason to look elsewhere is Minnesota's popularity, but the gap between their win probability and that of my next best option (Baltimore, 82.4%) means the Vikings are still easily the most attractive option this week.
Minnesota also has surprisingly little future value. They do host the Seahawks next week (currently -10.5 at SportsBetting), but there are so many other comparable lines (PIT@KC, ARI@STL, CIN@OAK, plus a bunch of teams I've already used) that not having the Vikings available next week wouldn't be a huge loss. And their highest spread after that game is just seven, so there's not much to worry about there.
Miami (vs. Tampa Bay)
If not for Minnesota, the Dolphins would be an interesting option. They're a bit too popular since they're only the fourth most likely team to win, but Miami makes up for it with their complete lack of future value: they're not favored by more than a field goal in any game the rest of the year at SBET.
New Orleans (at St. Louis)
The Saints may at first seem like an interesting option if you have them available, since they are very good and the Rams are quite poor. But there's no way you can take them over the Vikings this week, and I'd take Miami over New Orleans as well. That's because the Saints are "only" 84.5% to win (favored by 13.5, and an extremely popular selection ATS) and have an immense amount of future value.
They play at Tampa next week, and visit Washington in Week 13, but the most ridiculous line will come in Week 16, when they host the Bucs. Hopefully the Saints still have something to play for at that point, since not only will the spread be huge (-17.5 at SBET) but after this week only 32% of the OFP population will still have New Orleans as an option, so by Week 16 they won't be a popular selection at all.
Denver (at Washington)
The Broncos are favored by 3.5 points. Go Redskins.
Baltimore (at Cleveland)
The Ravens are the third most likely team to win this week (-10.5, 82.4%), but the case for them falls apart when you look at future value. They're going to be a great option when they host the Lions in Week 14, especially since over 70% of the OFP population has already used Baltimore. The other thing about W14 is that there aren't many other great options, with only two prospective lines above 10 at SBET. And even with those, I've already used New England and I doubt the Steelers-Browns line will be as high as the -15 it's currently listed at (and I'll probably use Pittsburgh before then anyway).
None of the other games are particularly compelling, so the Vikings are the obvious pick this week.
7 comments:
Let's say hypothetically I'm in a pool with only 6 people left and I know that the five others will all take the Vikings. The Dolphins would be the pick in this case, right?
I have Min, NO, and Miami left and am choosing the Fish.
Why? The Bucs line seems deflated and I'd like to have Minny at home next week.
Here's how TB scored last week:
1st TD: setup by INT return to within GB 15 yard line
2nd TD: blocked FG returned for TD
3rd TD: setup by 80+ yard kickoff return to within GB 15 yard line
4th TD: legitimate long drive, with TD scored on 4th down
5th TD: INT return
Can we say not repeatable skill?
Also, I rarely buy into emotional BS, but Tampa was incredibly jacked for that game and it was actually a sell out. Guys I know at the game said the atmosphere was the best in probably two years.
"Let's say hypothetically I'm in a pool with only 6 people left and I know that the five others will all take the Vikings. The Dolphins would be the pick in this case, right?"
Yeah. If you take the Vikings, you have a 1/6 chance of winning (16.7%). If you take the Dolphins, there are four possibilities:
74.0% of the time, both teams win, and you're still at 16.7%.
17.0% of the time, MIN wins and MIA loses, you're at 0%.
7.3% of the time, MIN loses and MIA wins, and you win the pool (100%).
1.7% of the time, they both lose and you win 1/6 of the pool (16.7%).
Add all those up and it's a 19.9% chance of winning, which is obviously better than 16.7%. Also, it's a bit stronger than that since the Vikings have more future value.
I still have the top four picks this week available in Min, NO, Miami and Denver. I came into this week thinking Minny or the Dolphins would be the best options as I see good spots to use the saints and broncos in the future. Gonna be a tough call.
I have used, in order, New Orleans, Minnesota, Dallas, San Fran, Philadelphia, Greeen Bay, New England, San Diego, Seattle. So I think I have to use Miami this week. Is this my best move -- there are 21 people left in my pool from an original 72 -- what kind of method might I use to sort of predict how many weeks it might last? What information is pertinent?
Also, at what number of people/weeks left should one start hedging their bets, if at all?
Also, at what number of people/weeks left should one start hedging their bets, if at all?
The answer definitely depends on how much money the pool is worth. Is it life changing money? Is it 100x (whatever that is to you)? Is it $250?
Also, how many people are left? It's a lot more defensible to hedge with two people left than twenty.
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