Last week:
MIN: W, 27-10
MIA: W, 25-23
NO: W, 28-23
DEN: L, 27-17
BAL: W, 16-0
OFP had 4.6% of entries knocked out last week, and Yahoo lost 14.9%; the Broncos were a lot more popular in Yahoo!. There are 41,157 entries left in the Yahoo! pool.
Teams used (Weighted DVOA rank): New England (1st), Philadelphia (3rd), New Orleans (4th), Minnesota (6th), Dallas (8th), Green Bay (10th), Houston (14th), San Diego (16th), Washington (22nd), Seattle (23rd).
This week's consensus numbers from OFP and Yahoo!:
Cincinnati (at Oakland)
The Bengals are an even 80.0% to win according to the line at Pinnacle, which is solid but really doesn't stand out in a week that contains a ridiculous eight legitimate options. They are also pretty popular in both pools, and the handy Survivor Grid tells us they still host the Browns, Lions, and Chiefs. With all that future value, there's no real reason to use Cincinnati this week.
Dallas (vs Washington)
Jacksonville (vs Buffalo)
Dallas (vs Washington)
I've already used the Cowboys, which is unfortunate because they're the most likely team to win this week at 83.3%. They're also very popular according to the most accurate consensus numbers we have though (OFP), and are an even better option next week when they host the Raiders.
Arizona (at St. Louis)
Arizona (at St. Louis)
The Cardinals are a very average option this week. Their implied win probability of 78.3% is good, but not great -- it's actually only the seventh highest this week, although I've already used four of the teams ahead of them. They aren't ridiculously popular, but Arizona is the third most common pick in both OFP and Yahoo! And they don't have that much future value, although hosting the Rams in Week 16 is clearly a better option than this game. The Cardinals are slightly better than Cincy this week, but hopefully there's something else out there.
Pittsburgh (at Kansas City)
The Steelers are more likely to win than both Cincy and Arizona, and also less popular than those two teams, so that's certainly a good start. Pittsburgh is an extremely popular pick ATS this week, but that's the case for nearly all of these big road faves, so that's not going to be much of a differentiator. Future value could be though -- they have two games that are potential options, hosting Oakland in W13 and playing in Cleveland the next week.
Pittsburgh (at Kansas City)
The Steelers are more likely to win than both Cincy and Arizona, and also less popular than those two teams, so that's certainly a good start. Pittsburgh is an extremely popular pick ATS this week, but that's the case for nearly all of these big road faves, so that's not going to be much of a differentiator. Future value could be though -- they have two games that are potential options, hosting Oakland in W13 and playing in Cleveland the next week.
Is that enough of a reason not to take them? The Browns game isn't, since Baltimore hosts the Lions that week. The Ravens are going to be a great option there, as 78% of the OFP survivors have already picked them. In W13, you could take the Bengals (vs DET) instead of Pittsburgh -- those two spreads should be about the same. The only problem with that is it means in W12, Cincy won't be available. The Cowboys and Chargers will be big favorites that week, but I've already used both of them. It looks like I'm going to need Cincy in W12, and Pittsburgh the following week, which really narrows down my current options.
Jacksonville (vs Buffalo)
After coming to that realization, it basically comes down to the Cardinals and Jaguars for me. Arizona is a bit more likely to win, but also slightly more popular. That's a slight edge to the Cards, but pretty much a wash, especially after you consider my preference for home teams. And if it comes down to future value, Arizona clearly has more, with a W15 visit to Detroit and a home game against St. Louis in W16. The Jaguars do play in Cleveland in the always unpredictable Week 17, but that's not a great option, and they're not going to be close to playable any other week.
New Orleans (at Tampa Bay)
New England (vs NY Jets)
Minnesota (vs Seattle)
New Orleans (at Tampa Bay)
New England (vs NY Jets)
Minnesota (vs Seattle)
I've already used each of these teams, so my pick this week is the team with the eighth highest win probability: Jacksonville.
40 comments:
What are your feelings on Detroit at home playing a pathetic Browns team on a short week?
They're favored by 3.5 points. They were last in the league in DVOA coming into last week. That would be a horrendous pick.
For future reference, this is not an AOL chat room. If you want to post a legitimate comment, or question including the details of your pool/situation, please do. If you want to go spouting off about how bad Brady Quinn looked last week and how that is playing a large factor in your selection, please do so elsewhere.
Ok I still have Cincy, Dallas, Arizona, Pittsburgh, Jags and saints left
If you still had the Cowboys and Saints left would you take one of them instead of the Jags this week? Would it alter your future picks?I only ask because the Jags scare me, I never know what team is going to show up. Plus the Bills just fired their coach...seems like a risky pick
Minnesota is actually my favorite pick this week in an ideal world, but I guess you have used them. If you still have the Ravens available I would probably go something like NO/DAL/PIT/BAL/ARI/CIN in Weeks 11/12/13/14/15/16, and figure out W17 if/when it comes to that.
Thanks for the reply, I've been checking your picks every week and you've helped me get this far. Hope I make it to the end for the big prize in my pool
Have used Bal, Was, Dallas, Hou, Philly, GB, NE, SD, SEA, MIA. In that Order.
I saved Minny for this week. I see no reason to select anyone other than Minny for this week. Do you?
Thanks for your work on this, Jacob.
"I see no reason to select anyone other than Minny for this week. Do you?"
Nope. I will likely be taking them in my pool that started in Week 4, which I have different picks in than this one for obvious reasons.
I still have the Pats and the Saints available, but I'm considering taking the Jaguars. They play well at home, they have close to zero future value, and I feel with the firing if Dick Jauron the spread will climb to double digits. Plus the Saints going to Tampa Bay makes me a little nervous. What do you think?
So far gone: NO/ WAS / BAL / HOU / NYG / GB / NE / SD / SEA / MIN
Since I have DAL, CIN, and PIT left, don't you use them as DAL / CIN / PIT in the next 3 weeks?
Also, I think you've done the same, but where at this point do you use Indy? As long as they're not going for 16-0, it's hard to save them for the last couple of weeks, so doesn't that force your hand at W14 v Denver?
Hey Vegas,
With so many people having various teams left, can you put a ranking of the top 6-8 teams IF you still had them. Thanks.
Hey Mr. Vegas,
I have been following your advise since last year and have been winning ever since.
I am not big on your pick of Jacksonville this week..., What do u think of going with the NY Giants instead?
what kind of equation of picks would you do with a 3 strikes pool that may run into the playoffs..after using your picks? lower win percentage?
Already Used = Saints, Skins, Baltimore, Texans, Philly, Green Bay, Pats, Chargers, Seahawks, & Dolphins.
Plan for the rest of the year (noting the tiebreaker is most points scored by your week 17 selection)
Week 11 Vikings vs Seahawks
Week 12 Cowboys vs Oakland
Week 13 Bengals vs Detroit
Week 14 Steelers vs Clowns
Week 15 Broncos vs Oakland
Week 16 Cardinals vs Rams
Week 17 Colts at Buffalo
If Peyton is taking week 17 off I plan to use the Falcons @ Tampa Bay as they present the highest scoring opportunity left on the board.
Thoughts? I miss anything?
It should probably be the Broncos instead of the Redskins in your first paragraph.
Really really appreciate the work you put into this.
I still have the Pats left... better pick than Jags this week?
Thanks!
VW,
First, great posts....really appreciate all the effort and hard work you put into this.
My question is I still have NO available, would this be the week to use them? I was also looking at JAC for this week as well. But I could have sworn I remember an old addage from way back that swears against betting against a team firing/hiring a new coach mid season. Teams tend to rise up to the occasion. But I could be wrong.....
NO does host TB in week 16 but there could be other options such as Det @ SF. Thoughts??
Blame my own blog being blocked at work for this mess:
Unpainted: If the line was going to climb to double digits because of the Jauron firing, it would have already. It has not. I would probably go with the Pats in your situation.
Kyle B.: Indy will likely be a good option in W4 since you've already used Baltimore. I think you are right, something like DAL/CIN/PIT/IND/ARI/SF/whatever probably makes sense, the only thing is that CIN will probably be better than SF in W16, so you could do something like JAX/DAL/PIT/IND/ARI/SF/CIN/whatever.
Jeff: Top eight options this week, considering how much future value they have but not where it's placed/scenarios for use:
New England
Minnesota
New Orleans
Jacksonville
Pittsburgh
Dallas
Arizona
Cincinnati
Kristen: It's close; I think the Jags are the slightly better pick, but since neither of them have much future value at all it doesn't make a huge difference either way. Jacksonville is definitely more likely to win this week though.
Bobby: I would make sure not to pick teams that have even a reasonable chance of having a home game in the playoffs.
ahhruff: Hello sir. That looks about right, although enough people are likely going to finish 17-0 in the ESPN pool that you're going to need at least 2-3 high scoring weeks to win the tiebreaker. I personally don't really care enough about that enough to switch up my whole strategy though, I'd rather just give myself the best chance to make it through the year and see what happens from there.
adam: Thanks, fixed.
mclyker: Yes, I'd definitely go with New England if I could. Especially now that they're up to 83.0% to win, the Pats are a great option this week.
mburanicz: I tend to not go by "old addages". If you have another strong option in W16 I'd go ahead and take the Saints this week.
The line has actually tightened on the Jags game... shows what I know! That's why I come here. Thanks VW, the Pats are my pick this week.
Hey Jacob,
So I only came upon your advice in week 2 and I used baltimore in week one so I still have new orleans.
Should I be using new orleans this week or sitting on them for a future week. I'm never sure which team will show up with Jacksonville and am just wondering what my best option is.
Thanks for all your help
I would go with New Orleans if you have a good option other than the Saints in Week 16, otherwise I'd stick with Jacksonville.
Alright thanks Jacob,
For week 16 I have Arizona which I think would be fine
Then I'm assuming as you hinted you're thinking cincinatti and pittsburgh for weeks 12 and 13 I have both of those
But looking forward then for week 14 I don't have baltimore, so I am considering Tennessee home to st louis and then for week 17 possibly Indy at buffalo
But this leaves me with a problem for week 15, what do you suggest I do?
To recap I have, pittsburgh, cincinatti, indy, tennessee, arizona, jacksonville, new orleans and atlanta left as usable teams (plus the giants and bears)
Thanks again
Sorry I also just realized I have denver to possibly use for week 15 what do you think of the rundown?
Sorry for all the questions
Not feeling that confident in Jacksonville this week so I'm waffling between them and the Steelers.
If I use the Steelers this week, thoughts on using the Bears in Week 13 against the Rams? I also could potentially use Carolina that week against Tampa Bay.
I am contemplating the following:
11 - Pit
12 - Dal
13 - NO or Cin
14 - Ten
15 - Ari
16 - Cin or Atl
17 - roll the dice
Thoughts?
VW, Thanks for posting every week.
Taken: NE, Atl, Phi, Indy, NYG, Pitt, GB, NO, SD, Min (in order)
Here is what I am thinking going forward
11 - Jax
12 - Dal
13 - Cincy
14 - Balt
15 - Sea or Hou
16 - Ariz
17 - Who knows
Thoughts?
Update to previous post - I have already taken the following (in order):
Bal, Was, SD, Hou, Phi, GB, NE, Chi, Sea, Min
I am contemplating the following:
11 - Pit
12 - Dal
13 - NO or Cin
14 - Ten
15 - Ari
16 - Cin or Atl
17 - roll the dice
Thoughts?
Just stumbled across your site and it is great! So far I have used the following in this order:
NO, WAS, BAL, SF, NYG, PIT, GB, SD, SEA, MIN
As you can see, I have used Pit and MIN already. This week I am thinking of taking the Jags, but they scare me.
If they win, it will set me up for the following:
12-DAL
13-CIN
14-IND
15-NE
16-AZ
17-roll the dice
Any thoughts? should I use NE this week and figure something else out for week 15?
Not sure if posting this for feedback or just to show people another example of a rest of the year list, either way here you go...
Week 1: BAL vs KC
Week 2: WAS vs STL
Week 3: NYG @ TB
Week 4: SF vs STL
Week 5: PHI vs TB
Week 6: GB vs DET
Week 7: IND @ STL
Week 8: SD vs OAK
Week 9: ATL vs WAS
Week 10: MIN vs DET
Week 11: NO @ TB
Week 12: DAL vs OAK
Week 13: PIT vs OAK
Week 14: NE vs CAR
Week 15: DEN vs OAK (or SEA vs TB)
Week 16: CIN vs KC
Week 17: Whoever has something to play for vs someone who doesn't
(Subject to shuffling as the year develops if I'm still in the pool)
Daniel,
I too have used Balt and was looking forward to week 14. In addition to Tenn I was also looking at Sea @ Hou, with Hou being my pick. VW, comments?
I have the Patriots AND Saints...Which is the better play?
I would say use the Saints this week; The Pats have many more sure wins after this week. They still play the Dolphins, Bills and Panthers. The Saints have a tough schedule ahead and the only other time you may use them is Week 16 home vs. TB
Wow, that was close!!!
Who do you guys think I should take in week 12 and also in future games? These are the teams I have taken so far... This is a winner take all $1550.00 with six guys and gals left.
Ravens
Redskins
Eagles
Colts
Giants
Packers
Patriots
Bears
Seahawks
Vikings
Jags
Thanks,
Willy
Should I take Cincy this week and the Steelers next week or Dallas this week and the Steelers next week?
I am nervous about Dallas....not sure I trust them to win after almost losing to Washington. I am debating between Philly home vs. Washington or Atlanta home vs. Tampa Bay
I'd be nervous with Washinton's D vs Philly. Chicago kept it close and Wash seems like a better team. Dallas will be ready to play and will pound the rock on the ground opening the big shots down filed.
Who do I go with week 14?
Teams used
NO
WASH
BALT
INDY
PITT
GB
NE
CHI
ATL
MIN
JAC
12-DALL
13-CINCI
14-
15-AZ
16-
17-
Leaning Tenn-14 and Ginats -16 ??
Down to 2 players
Help
I think I'd go with Tennessee in Week 14 if I were you. Also, week 15 I'd go maybe Houston (@St Louis) or Philly (home vs. SF). Then you can save AZ for week 16 when they are home vs. St Louis (who they just beat easily in St Louis)
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