2009 NFL Survivor: Week 9

Last week:
SD: W, 24-16
CHI: W, 30-6
ARI: L, 34-21
DAL: W, 38-17
IND: W, 18-14
DET: L, 17-10
NO: W, 35-27

OFP had 10.4% of entries knocked out last week; the Yahoo! entrants were a bit more bullish on Arizona, which caused 13.9% of them to go down. There are 60,648 entries left in the Yahoo! pool.

Teams used (DAVE rank): New England (1st), Philadelphia (2nd), New Orleans (3rd), Green Bay (6th), Dallas (9th), Houston (17th), San Diego (19th), Washington (21st).

This week's consensus numbers from OFP and Yahoo!:

Atlanta (vs. Washington)

For most of this season, there's been a choice: either take the most popular team, or sacrifice some win probability. Not this week though, as there are three other teams favored at least as much as the Falcons (-10, 81.3%). Throw in the fact that they still face the Bucs twice, and there's really no reason to waste Atlanta this week.

Seattle (vs. Detroit)

The Seahawks are favored by the exact same amount as the Falcons, but are dramatically less popular; this probably has something to do with Seattle only having won one more game this season than Detroit. They do travel to St. Louis and host Tampa Bay later in the season, but it doesn't get any better than the Lions -- who have been noticeably worse than those other two teams -- at home. Those lines will probably be in single digits, and I don't think there are going to be many weeks the rest of the year where taking a team favored by less than 10 points is necessary.

Green Bay (at Tampa Bay)

I have already used the Packers, but I don't think I'd take them over Seattle even if I hadn't, since they're extremely public at -9.5 (79.6%) on the road, and still face the 49ers, Lions, and, well, Seahawks down the stretch.

New Orleans (vs. Carolina)

You know, when I took the Saints in Week 1 against the Lions, I really had no idea I'd be using the third best team in the league right off the bat. That's how it worked out though, so I obviously can't take New Orleans this week.

If you do still have the Saints available, it's an interesting debate between them and the Seahawks:

Win probability: NO 85.4%, SEA 81.3%
Popularity: SEA 18.1%, NO 11.7%
Future value: The Saints will be large road favorites against the Rams (-14.5 at SBET), Bucs (-17.5), and Redskins (-14), and will be laying a huge number against the Bucs in Week 16 at home (-17.5 right now; I realize this makes no sense). The Seahawks are favored by nine against TB in Week 15, but there are plenty of options that week; Seattle has essentially zero future value.
Future popularity: If they win, the Saints will have been used by 53% of OFP survivors after this week; the Seahawks will be at 30%.

New Orleans comes out on top in three of the four categories, but they have such a ridiculous amount of future value that I think I'd probably still go with Seattle.

New England (vs. Miami)

The Pats are actually the second biggest favorite of the week at -10.5 (82.8%). They have more value going forward (-10.5 vs NYJ, -13 vs CAR, -16 vs JAX) than the Seahawks, but are less popular this week; I'd probably stick with Seattle and save New England for later if I hadn't used either team.

The lack of available options made my choice unusually simple this week: the Seahawks are the pick.