Last week:
CIN: W, 16-7
DAL: W, 24-7
SD: W, 43-14
ATL: W, 20-17
GB: W, 34-12
PHI: W, 27-24
MIN: W, 36-10
Everybody won last week, although it was certainly close; 1.0% of OFP entries went down, while Yahoo! lost 2.7% and is down to 23,053. There are 29 people left in the ESPN VW group; I guess somebody joined after I linked to it last week?
Teams used (Weighted DVOA rank): New Orleans (1st), New England (2nd), Minnesota (4th), Philadelphia (5th), Green Bay (6th), Dallas (9th), Houston (11th), San Diego (12th), Atlanta (19th), Jacksonville (20th), Washington (23rd), Seattle (25th).
This week's consensus numbers from OFP and Yahoo!:
Cincinnati (vs. Detroit)
The Bengals are a very strong option at home against the Lions, favored by 13 and 84.3% to win according to the Pinnacle odds. They're also a very obvious option though, causing nearly 40% of the OFP population to pick them. That fact, along with the future value they still have in their Week 16 game against the Chiefs, makes continuing to look for a second option very much worthwhile.
San Diego (at Cleveland)
I've already used the Chargers, who are -13 themselves, although only 83.0% to win. San Diego is way less popular than Cincy, but has more future value, hosting the Redskins in Week 17. The Chargers are quite popular at the consensus sites, but given the uncertainty surrounding Week 17, and their lack of popularity in OFP relative to the Bengals, I think they're the better option between the two, not that it matters for my purposes.
Pittsburgh (vs. Oakland)
The Bengals are a very strong option at home against the Lions, favored by 13 and 84.3% to win according to the Pinnacle odds. They're also a very obvious option though, causing nearly 40% of the OFP population to pick them. That fact, along with the future value they still have in their Week 16 game against the Chiefs, makes continuing to look for a second option very much worthwhile.
San Diego (at Cleveland)
I've already used the Chargers, who are -13 themselves, although only 83.0% to win. San Diego is way less popular than Cincy, but has more future value, hosting the Redskins in Week 17. The Chargers are quite popular at the consensus sites, but given the uncertainty surrounding Week 17, and their lack of popularity in OFP relative to the Bengals, I think they're the better option between the two, not that it matters for my purposes.
Pittsburgh (vs. Oakland)
It took Pinnacle forever to release a line on this game, but it looks like Roethlisberger is going to play, so the Steelers are favored by 14. That's excellent news, since they're barely half as popular in OFP as the Bengals despite being more likely to win. There is some value in saving Pittsburgh, as their visit to Cleveland is one of the best options on next week's card. But there is a clearly superior option, with the Ravens hosting the Lions.
Baltimore becomes even more attractive after considering how few people still have them available, so there's no sense in saving the Steelers if using them next week is extremely unlikely, since their final three games (vs. GB, vs. BAL, @MIA) are pretty tough.
Chicago (vs. St. Louis)
The Bears are a reasonable enough option if you've already used each of the three teams above. They're favored by 9.5, 80.6% to win, and aren't all that popular in OFP. They do have some future value, when they visit Detroit in W17, but not a ton.
Denver (at Kansas City)
The Broncos are only favored by 4.5, and are under 67% to win. Don't pick them.
Chicago (vs. St. Louis)
The Bears are a reasonable enough option if you've already used each of the three teams above. They're favored by 9.5, 80.6% to win, and aren't all that popular in OFP. They do have some future value, when they visit Detroit in W17, but not a ton.
Denver (at Kansas City)
The Broncos are only favored by 4.5, and are under 67% to win. Don't pick them.
New Orleans (at Washington)
I've already used the Saints, who are favored by 9.5 in DC. If you're stuck picking between them and the Bears, Chicago is a better option since they're slightly more likely to win, and the Saints are going to be huge favorites at home against Tampa Bay in Week 16.
My options basically come down to the Bengals and Steelers, and for the reasons presented above I think Pittsburgh is the obvious choice this week. The only way I'd change that is if it was announced Roethlisberger wasn't going to play, or if the line moved significantly; if the Steelers are -14 when your deadline comes around, I'd definitely take them.
My options basically come down to the Bengals and Steelers, and for the reasons presented above I think Pittsburgh is the obvious choice this week. The only way I'd change that is if it was announced Roethlisberger wasn't going to play, or if the line moved significantly; if the Steelers are -14 when your deadline comes around, I'd definitely take them.
41 comments:
Hey Jacob,
Thanks for all the great picks,
I don't have baltimore for week 14 but I still have cincinatti pittsburgh indianapolis chicago tennessee arizona and jacksonville
Do I still use pittsburgh this week and go with let's say tennessee next week?
What do you think my best option is?
Thanks again,
I burned Baltimore week 1 and still have New Orleans available for 16.
Bal, Was, Dal, Hou, Phi, GB, N.E., S.D., Sea, Mia, Min, Atl
Seeing that I don't need Cinci for week 16 due to the Saints, is there any reason to hold off on the Bengals this week?
Without Baltimore, my options for next week are more limited. I will choose from Pit (@ CLE short week), Ind (host Denver), or Ten (host STL).
An equal number of people have used Pitt and Cinci in my pool (22 remaining people, Cinci & Pitt both have been selected 13 times).
Under these circumstances, don't you think Cinci is the better option? I do and want to make sure I am not missing anything.
Thanks for your help, Jacob.
Jacob,
I still have Pitt and Cincy available, but want to hold them for Week 13 (Pitt vs Cle) and Week 16 (Cin vs KC). What are your thoughts on using Philly this week against a banged up Atlanta team? Philly can't be used the rest of the way with their schedule, so it's the only time left that I can sneak them in.
Pitt looks like the best choice for me. In our pool, we have to make double picks in weeks 15-17. With that in mind, I absolutely need to save Cincy for week 16 v. KC if possible.
Going to be interesting in the late weeks for me!
I do have to wonder though... should I consider taking Chicago this week and Pit next week, saving Baltimore for week 17 @ Oakland? The obvious pick in week 17 is looking like Denver v. KC but since I have to double pick I'll need a second option.
daniel_ozier: Yeah, I think that makes sense, PIT at home this week and then TEN at home next week.
Scalper: I agree, in your situation I think I'd take CIN this week, and figure next week out after the lines come out.
R.C.: Philly is favored by 5.5, so I think that'd be a pretty big mistake. Assuming you have TEN/IND left, I'd use the Steelers this week.
Lord Bodak: I would stick with the Steelers this week and figure out Week 17 if/when you get there.
Vegas,
I have chosen the following already. Reading your analysis up top who should I take this week?? Do I take the Chargers this week and the Steelers next week and then take Cincy in week 16 against the Cheifs? Or do I take Cincy this week the Steelers next week and week 15?, na dthen the Saints in week 16 against the Bucs. Your thoughts are always appreciated. Here are the teams I have already chosen...
Ravens
Redskins
Eagles
Colts
Giants
Packers
Patriots
Bears
Seahawks
Vikings
Jags
Cowboys
Thanks,
Willy
I'm sorry, but how stupid are some of you? If you haven't used the Steelers, VegasWatch is saying use them.
If you have the Steelers available, freaking use them this week. Is it really that hard?
You should probably stop calling other people stupid if you don't really understand what's going on yourself.
Thanks for the advice VW. I have already used Steelers and Chargers, so it looks like the Bengals for me. It truly is my only viable option this week.
Jacob:
In a contest where beginning next week, you need to select two teams. I still have CIN, PITT, BALT available.
Considering Cincy this week and using BALT and PITT next week as I am the only one left (out of 38) with all three of these teams available. Thoughts? Thanks in advance.
VW -- Great column, keep up the good work and analysis. I saw your comment regarding SD/CIN, but curious to your thoughts on the following:
Week 16 -- GB (v. SEA), ARI (v. STL), and SF (v. DET) all appear to be strong plays
Week 17 -- Other options besides SD appear to be JAX (@ CLE), CHI (@ DET), TEN (@ SEA)
Since available Week 16 options (besides CIN) are pretty strong home teams and Week 17 options (besides SD) are soft road teams, would it be better to take CIN this week and go with SD in Week 17 (despite uncertainty)?
I know you also advised avoiding CIN since they will be popular, but most of the remaining participants have already used them. Thanks!
Great analysis and very appreciated.
Used: NE, WAS, BAL, SF, PHI, GB, IND, SD, ATL, MIN, DAL, CIN
When I originally mapped out the remainder of the season I was planning: 13) NO 14) PIT 15) HOU or ARI 16) NYG or ARI 17) JAX or DEN or CHI
Now looking at 13) PIT 14) TEN 15) ARIz/HOU/DEN 16) NO 17) JAX/DEN/CHI
Any thoughts on optimal picks for the rest of season with what I have left? There are still 78 people still left my the pool at OFP. Thanks.
im sure im late to the party with this question, but how do you get that cincy has an 84.3% chance to win and san diego only has 83% chance? what is the math that leads to that?
Slatter,
Are you this much of a JACK ASS!! (I'm sorry, but how stupid are some of you? If you haven't used the Steelers, VegasWatch is saying use them). What kind of comment is that. Survivor is a year long thing you are playing each week for the next week. Next time keep your idiot comments to yourself!!!
VW,
Was wondering what you think of my scenerio up top?? I am thinking San Deigo week 13, Pittsburg week 14, week 15 Arizona or Denver, week 16 New Orleans or Cincy and week 17 New Orleans or San Fransisco?? I really appreciate the help...
Willy
Hi,
I know you recomend SD over Cinci, but what do you think of a strategy that goes: 13-Cin/14-(Indi or Ten)/15-Sea/16-Ari/17-SD till the end?
I'll keep to myself. Jesus, I wasn't trying to come off like a dick, I was just pointing out that when VW suggests picking a team, and you have that team available, that asking him if you should pick the team he recommended is silly. I didn't think it was going to cause such a commotion. My apologies.
I'm in a pool with 6 people left, and think I need to really start tailoring my picks away from what the others are likely to do. With that in mind, my road map is as follows:
13) Cincy v Detroit (only one other has cincy left)
14) Pit @ Cle (only two others have Pit left)
15) NO v Dal (only one other has NO left, and will likely be using it the week after against TB)
16) Ari v Stl (4 others have Ari left, but hope they will use them in week 15 v Det)
17) Remaining choices are Den v KC, Chi @ Det, Jax @ Cle, so I'll go with whoever looks better and has the most to play for.
Any major flaws in that strategy? I think the only real discussion point is week 15, where Dallas are a much better team than one would normally like to pick against. However, after watching the saints on MNF against the pats, and the Austin/Romo vegas excursion, and the cowboys annual december troubles, I really dont think that this is THAT risky a pick, espcially considering that it give me a number of picks against the grain from here on out.
GoNU: If you still have Tennessee I would probably go PIT this week, BAL/TEN next week, and save CIN for (hopefully) Week 16.
roarlions23: If you don't think Cincy will be very popular in your particular pool, it probably makes sense to use them this week and save SD.
SDCZK: I like the PIT/TEN plan. Stick with the home teams while you can and save NO for W16.
JT: From the money lines at PinnacleSports.com.
Juan: I'd say that probably depends on how many people are left in your pool, and how likely it is that it'll go to Week 17.
JP Rocks: That looks good except for the W15 thing; I think if it comes to that you'll probably be able to find a team that's more likely to win than NO and isn't going to be very popular in your pool.
Vegas Watch,
I have Cinn, Pitsburgh and Chicago to use this week.
My question is If I knew that everyone else in my pool was going with the Steelers, would it be better for me to take Chicago or Cinncinatti this week to try to win the pool altogether?
1-NO, 2-MIN, 3-BAL, 4-SF, 5-NYG, 6-GB, 7-IND, 8-CHI, 9-ATL, 10-AZ, 11-NE, 12-DAL
I have not to many options after this week do I take Pitt week-13 and save Cincy for week 16-SD for week 17 week 14 TN and week 15????punt
Besides myself, 5 of the 9 remaining teams have Cincy available. Should I buck the trend and go with Chicago (the next best available matchup) or just stick it out and hope the 3 teams without Cincy bow out? For the record only 2 teams have Pittsburgh left and nobody has SD left.
Any thoughts on picking Carolina? I don't have any of the top 4 teams (Cin, SD, Pit, Chi) left. My choice is between Carolina and Denver, because I have a personal rule to never pick away teams (only time I broke this year was Ind vs. STL with no other good games available).
I'm with you Paul - debating between CAR and DEN... CAR has a young QB with lots of INT's.. and Denver is on the road!
VW - I have used: SEA, WAS, HOU, CHI, PIT, GB, PHI, SD, ATL, TEN, ARI, DAL. We have a bottom 5 rule starting this week, so this week I can't use Cinci :( Any suggestions? 31 remaining this week, and I got a feeling it is going to get a major cut!
Kristen- If everyone else is taking PIT, you should definitely take CIN.
ts: I think that makes sense -- PIT, TEN, CIN, SD, and figure something out for W15 when the time comes.
PC Load: If you think about half the pool is going to take Cincy, I think you should take the risk with Chicago.
Paul: Not really sure what you're getting at, since Denver is on the road. I'd definitely go with the Saints if you still have them available.
AF: I don't know what a "bottom 5" rule is (can't pick against the worst five teams in the league, determined by record?), but if possible I'd go with the Saints.
Thanks VW, I'll come seeking your advice week 15 if I make it that far.Still 59 left out of 278 in my pool.Last year we had 6 left on week 16 and all lost,we played it out and all won.
We split the pot
You had a nice run Jacob. I hope you'll still provide analysis to those that didn't take the Steelers this week (check above, I took the Eagles, which you said would be a "pretty big mistake"). Thanks again.
R.C.
Yes, because today conclusively proved that a team favored by 4 is more likely to win than a team favored by 14.5. That's how it works.
But if you look deeper, the Eagles were playing a team missing its starting QB and starting RB and struglled to beat Tampa last week. Whereas Pitt (with their own concussed QB to worry about) was playing a frisky team that either lays eggs or shocks people, and they had an extra 3 days rest due to playing on Thanksgiving. Just saying, I rode you the whole way..... until this week.
I'm sure the oddsmakers never considered who was playing quarterback for the Falcons.
They did.
I'm saying - YOU didn't.
Oddsmakers consider quarterbacks. VW considers odds. Yes, he did.
I think I speak for most of planet Earth when I say that R.C. and those of his ilk should keep their "thoughts" to themselves.
It was a great run while it lasted VW, keep the picks coming. I'll definitely continue reading for as long as your making picks. Here's to the start of another long winning streak!
According to my "Frisky Rankings" (TM), Philly was the best pick of the week. It's way too scientific to explain.
yeah man love the info...keep the picks coming .. you have really improved my season.. but i did pick chicago with cutler..
Please don't take my posts the wrong way. The only reason I am still alive in my pool is because of this blog and the analysis and insight that Jacob provides.
I'm just saying that this week, regardless of the point spread, I think the Eagles were at least worth considering. But Jacob dismissed them too quickly, in my humble opinion. He also locked in on the Steelers this week, but could have saved them for next week when they play the hapless Browns. (Yes, I know he's planning on using Baltimore next week, and that's why, but Baltimore also has Chicago and Oakland on their schedule where he could have kept them.
Anyway, I apologize to Jacob if my posts came out more negatively than I had intentioned, I love his blog and hope he continues to post for the remainder of the season.
R.C.
Thanks for the assistance all season. I hope you'll keep simulating survivor the rest of the season even with the loss today. The pool I'm in allows for one rebuy (and it's not cheap, but I'm taking it), so I'm still around. We had 9 people unbeaten and 23 total going into today. 5 of the unbeatens took Pittsburgh, including myself. Still can't believe the Steelers blew it.
Survivor pools are inherently about being fortunate enough to either not have a team available in the week it is upset; or not having a good option in a following week forcing you to not take a team available in the week it is upset.
Fortunately, I presumed I needed Pittsburgh in week 14 only because I did not wish to be forced to use what should be an insanely popular Tennessee team this week at OFP. So I fortunately used Cincinnati on all my picks. Ironically, with Pittsburgh's loss Tennessee might actually be the safer play this week. But I will still use Pittsburgh over Cleveland and hope for the big knockout.
VW's analysis of last week was dead-on however.
"there's no sense in saving the Steelers if using them next week is extremely unlikely"
Pittsburgh was absolutely the right call for anyone that had better options, i.e. Baltimore, in week 14.
I find RC's comments amusing regarding using Philly this week as a 4-5 point favorite over Atlanta stating "Philly can't be used the rest of the way with their schedule, so it's the only time left that I can sneak them in"
Well, I can promise you RC that the Philadelphia line in week 15 at home vs. San Francisco will be higher than -4. It will probably be -7. So if you needed to, you could have "sneaked" Philly in at that point.
VW was absoultely correct in immediately dismissing Philly as a viable option based upon its liklihood of winning the game compared with other significantly better options. Hey, I thought Arizona was a cinch to beat Minnesota last night. Still didn't make it a good suicide pool play.
sorry for all the crap people are giving you, i am not trying to continue that. i understand that the percentages of winning come from the money lines, but what i am asking is exactly what math took you from cincy -650 to them having an 84.3% chance of winning and san diego -600 to having a 83% chance?
JT: If Cincy is -650/+520, here is what you do:
650/(650+100) = 86.7%
100/(520+100) = 16.1%
Those add up to 102.8% (over 100% because of the juice), so you divide 86.7% by 1.028, and get 84.3%.
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