I mentioned the VIP undefeated odds for the Colts and Saints on Twitter yesterday, but here are the game-by-game breakdowns for both teams. These are mostly based on the SportsBetting prospective lines, although I adjusted a few of them (if they're 15-0, I can't see the Colts being -3 against the Bills in Week 17).
Indianapolis
W14: vs. Denver, -7 (73.9%)
W15: at Jacksonville, -4 (65.4%)
W16: vs. NY Jets, -8 (76.3%)
W17: at Buffalo, -6 (69.7%)
Undefeated odds: 25.7%
VIP odds: +250/-350 (26.9%)
New Orleans
W14: at Atlanta, -10 (81.2%)
W15: vs. Dallas, -6.5 (71.3%)
W16: vs. Tampa Bay, -15 (89.2%)
W17: at Carolina, -7 (73.9%)
Undefeated odds: 38.2%
VIP odds: +160/-200 (36.6%)
There's not an official NO/ATL line out yet, but it's -8.5 -118/+114 at Matchbook, so I used the equivalent of that. And I bumped SBET's prospective DAL/NO line down half a point, since seven seemed a bit high.
My numbers put the odds of both teams going 16-0 at 9.8%, and the chances of at least one team finishing the regular season undefeated at 54.1%.
The Football Outsiders numbers are a bit less optimistic, putting the Saints at 21.6% and the Colts at 21.0%. They also put a Super Bowl titled the "Mercury Morris is a Royal Douchebag Bowl (IND-NO, both 18-0)" at a disappointing 0.8%.
Tuesday, December 8, 2009
What Are The Odds: Undefeated 2009
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4 comments:
The Colts have Denver this week. Keep up the good work, I like the new Power Poll for hoops
Are you trying to tell me that they don't play a team that's not in their division twice in four weeks? I find that pretty hard to believe.
Thanks.
I just visited sportsbetting.com and found that the Colts are -2.5 (-115) against the Bills.
On sportsbook.com (their sister site), the Colts are +5 against the Bills.
What do you make of this, and how best should one get value out of this disparity?
I'd just take Buffalo +2.5 at SportsBetting. That makes more sense given this week's line and that Indy will likely be resting even more guys in Week 17. Sportsbook also tends to have more accurate lines on this sort of thing.
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