2009 NFL Survivor: Week 17

Last week:
ARI: W, 31-10
SF: W, 20-6
GB: W, 48-10
NO: L, 20-17
CIN: W, 17-10
IND: L, 29-15

The New Orleans loss knocked out about 12% of OFP, which lost 17% total. Yahoo! lost 23%, and is down to 8,399. There are 10 people that are one win away from 17-0 in the VW group.

Teams used (Weighted DVOA): Green Bay (1st), New England (2nd), Philadelphia (3rd), Dallas (4th), Baltimore (5th), San Diego (6th), New Orleans (9th), Arizona (10th) Houston (11th), Pittsburgh (12th), Minnesota (14th), Cincinnati (16th), Washington (21st), Atlanta (22nd), Jacksonville (23rd), Seattle (30th).

This week's consensus numbers from OFP and Yahoo!:

Denver (vs. Kansas City)

The Broncos have been the most obvious Week 17 pick for awhile now, and that comes through both in the consensus numbers above and the line. Denver was favored by as much as 13, but now that Marshall isn't playing the spread is down to 12, and the ML puts them at 83% to win. Those are the only two variables we need to look at in the last week of the season, so the Broncos are a good pick but it'd be preferable to find something less popular.

San Francisco (at St. Louis)

The 49ers aren't a bad choice, but they're only favored by seven and 74% to win, so you're giving up a lot there. San Fran is a slightly better option than Denver, but both are less than ideal.

NY Jets (vs. Cincinnati)

Here's a good example of why Week 17 is the most important time to look at the lines and ignore everything else if you want to know how likely a team is to win, with the 8-7 Jets favored by 10 against the 10-5 Bengals. New York is only slightly more popular than San Francisco, and is easily the best option of these first three teams.

Baltimore (at Oakland)

For those who have managed to save them all year, the Ravens are an awesome pick, favored by 10.5 and 83% to win with barely 1 in 25 OFP survivors picking them this week. Unfortunately I'm part of the overwhelming majority that has already used Baltimore.

Buffalo (vs. Indianapolis)

Going off the board with this one, as the Bills are only at 0.5% in OFP. But they're favored by nine, and are 78% to win according to Pinnacle. That makes them almost exactly equal to the Jets as a Survivor option. It really doesn't make a difference, but using the Yahoo! numbers as the tiebreaker, I'm going with the Jets.

2009 NFL Survivor: Week 16

Last week:
DEN: L, 20-19
HOU: W, 16-13
ARI: W, 31-24
SEA: L, 24-7
PHI: W, 27-13
NE: W, 17-10
BAL: W, 31-7

The Denver loss was pretty huge, since over 42% of OFP picked them last week. Overall, OFP lost almost half of its entries (49.6%), while 35.2% of Yahoo! went down. There are 10,488 people left in the Yahoo! pool, and 11 remaining in the VW group.

Teams used (Weighted DVOA rank from last week): Green Bay (2nd), New England (3rd), Philadelphia (4th), New Orleans (5th), Baltimore (6th), Minnesota (7th), Dallas (8th), Arizona (9th) Houston (10th), San Diego (11th), Pittsburgh (13th), Washington (20th), Jacksonville (22nd), Atlanta (23rd), Seattle (26th).

This week's consensus numbers from OFP and Yahoo!:

Arizona (vs. St. Louis)

The Cardinals are the biggest favorites of the week, at 87% to beat the Rams according to Pinnacle. They've very popular, but play Green Bay in Week 17, so this is definitely your last chance to use them. I don't have that option since I took Arizona last week.

San Francisco (vs. Detroit)

I haven't used the 49ers, who are favored by 12 against the Lions. San Francisco does have some future value, playing in St. Louis next week, and they're pretty popular in OFP. This is a decent option, but less than ideal.

Green Bay (vs. Seattle)
New Orleans (vs. Tampa Bay)

I've already used the Packers and the Saints. Given the choice between the two I'd go with New Orleans, since the teams are almost identical in terms of win probability but the Packers are substantially more popular.

Cincinnati (vs. Kansas City)

This is a good one. I've managed to save the Bengals, and it pays off this week as they're -14 against the Chiefs, and 86% to win. They're also not very popular at all, since so many people have successfully taken them in the past; only about 1 in 14 OFP entries are using Cincy this week. The Bengals won't be much of an option in W17 when they play at the Jets; they're clearly a better choice than San Francisco, and almost certainly the pick this week.

Indianapolis (vs. NY Jets)

The Colts may well go undefeated, but they were just never a great Survivor pick all season. Indy is only favored by 5.5 here because they've already locked up HFA, and may be underdogs in Buffalo next week.

There are a bunch of other teams favored by 7-9, but none compare to the Bengals, so Cincinnati is the pick this week.

2009 NFL Survivor: Week 15

Last week:
TEN: W, 47-7
BAL: W, 48-3
NE: W, 20-10
PIT: L, 13-6
NYJ: W, 26-3
HOU: W, 34-7
IND: W, 28-16
NO: W, 26-23

Pittsburgh was the only notable loser of the week, and the main reason behind 6.9% of the OFP pool going down; for Yahoo! that number was 8.4%. There are 17,684 people left in the Yahoo! pool, and 16 remaining in the VW group.

Since the VW group is extremely likely to end in a tie, I think what we'll do is take the people who go 17-0 and make a group with just them next year, and then there will be a prize for the winner of that group. I have no interest in using the completely arbitrary ESPN tiebreaker to decide anything.

Teams used (Weighted DVOA rank): Green Bay (2nd), New England (3rd), Philadelphia (4th), New Orleans (5th), Baltimore (6th), Minnesota (7th), Dallas (8th), Houston (10th), San Diego (11th), Pittsburgh (13th), Washington (20th), Jacksonville (22nd), Atlanta (23rd), Seattle (26th).

This week's consensus numbers from OFP and Yahoo!:

Denver (vs. Oakland)

The Broncos are the team most likely to win this week, although it's not by as much as the consensus numbers above would indicate; Denver is favored by 14 against the Raiders. They are at the extreme in the third relevant category as well, since they host the Chiefs in Week 17. A reasonable pick, but it'd be nice to find something that avoids sacrificing future value and going with such a popular selection.

Houston (at St. Louis)

No line on this one yet, as the Rams haven't figured out if Boller is going to be able to play. This might be a decent option if Keith Null, who had a historically bad debut last week, starts, but I wouldn't get involved until a QB decision is made and the line is subsequently released.

Arizona (at Detroit)

The Cardinals are less than half as popular in OFP as the Broncos, but are nearly as likely to win (88.1% for DEN, 85.4% for ARI, according to the Pinnacle MLs). The combination of those two factors makes Arizona a slightly better option this week. The only hesitation I have in taking the Cardinals is they have such a great matchup in Week 16, hosting the Rams. But there appear to be other strong options next week (CIN vs. KC, SF vs. DET), while the Broncos are far and away the best look I still have available in W17, so for this week I think Arizona is the better option of the two.

Seattle (vs. Tampa Bay)

Philadelphia (vs. San Francisco)

New England (at Buffalo)
Baltimore (vs. Chicago)
Indianapolis (at Jacksonville)
Minnesota (at Carolina)
New Orleans (vs. Dallas)

I've already used six of these seven, and the Colts, having already clinched HFA throughout, are only favored by three in Jacksonville on Thursday night. We can go through any dilemmas involving these teams in the comments, but my pick for Week 15 is Arizona.

2009 NFL Survivor: Week 14

Last week:
CIN: W, 23-13
SD: W, 30-23
PIT: L, 27-24
CHI: W, 17-9
DEN: W, 44-13
NO: W, 33-30

Well, that's the end of my streak; it was bound to happen eventually. I'll keep going with these posts though, since I don't see any reason not to.

Decent week for knockouts; 23.0% of OFP entries went down, while Yahoo! lost 17.1% and is down to 19,080. There are 21 people left in the ESPN VW group.

Teams used (Weighted DVOA rank): Green Bay (1st), New Orleans (2nd), New England (3rd), Minnesota (6th), Philadelphia (7th), Dallas (8th), Houston (10th), Pittsburgh (11th), San Diego (12th), Washington (20th), Jacksonville (21st), Atlanta (23rd), Seattle (25th).

This week's consensus numbers from OFP and Yahoo!:

Tennessee (vs. St. Louis)

The Titans have got to be the most popular Survivor pick all season, right? With nearly 2/3 of OFP entries taking the Titans, they would have to be the biggest favorites of the week by a huge margin to be a good option, and that's not the case. Unless you have already used PIT, NO, BAL, and NE, I wouldn't give Tennessee too much thought. Before considering future value, even a team like Indy (only favored by seven) is a better option this week.

Baltimore (vs. Detroit)

I've been excited about taking the Ravens here for at least a month, so it's fitting that I got knocked out a week before having the opportunity. According to the Pinny odds, the Ravens (86.1%) are actually slightly more likely to win than the Titans (84.8%). After considering that Tennessee is nearly seven times as popular, the comparison becomes comical.

New England (vs. Carolina)

I've already used the Pats, who are the biggest favorite of the week at 86.8%. They don't have much future value (vs. JAX in W16 is the best possibility), and are another excellent option. If you somehow haven't used either the Ravens or Patriots -- and that can't be a long list -- I'd go with the Pats, unless you think you'll need them two weeks from now.

Pittsburgh (at Cleveland)

The Steelers are in the second tier of options, if you've used Baltimore and New England. Pittsburgh is 82.4% to win, and not very popular; the also have basically zero future value (GB, BAL, @MIA). Road teams are usually a concern, but the Steelers, with their four game losing streak, aren't a popular ATS selection at all.

NY Jets (at Tampa Bay)

The Jets are favored by three. Don't do it.

Houston (vs. Seattle)

The Texans aren't a great option either, at just 70.0% to win. Unless you have used each of the four clearly superior non-TEN options, there's no reason to look at a team only favored by six.

Indianapolis (vs. Denver)
New Orleans (at Atlanta)

Neither of the undefeated teams are great options this week, although I'd take either before going with the Titans (noticing a theme here?). The Colts are in the weird position of being undefeated but not having much future value; vs. NYJ in W16 is the only real possibility. Not so for the Saints, who are going to be enormous favorites in Week 16 against the Bucs.

I have already used every other comparable option, and was never terribly interested in finding an alternate anyway, so this week's pick is Baltimore.

What Are The Odds: Undefeated 2009

I mentioned the VIP undefeated odds for the Colts and Saints on Twitter yesterday, but here are the game-by-game breakdowns for both teams. These are mostly based on the SportsBetting prospective lines, although I adjusted a few of them (if they're 15-0, I can't see the Colts being -3 against the Bills in Week 17).

Indianapolis

W14: vs. Denver, -7 (73.9%)
W15: at Jacksonville, -4 (65.4%)
W16: vs. NY Jets, -8 (76.3%)
W17: at Buffalo, -6 (69.7%)

Undefeated odds: 25.7%
VIP odds: +250/-350 (26.9%)

New Orleans

W14: at Atlanta, -10 (81.2%)
W15: vs. Dallas, -6.5 (71.3%)
W16: vs. Tampa Bay, -15 (89.2%)
W17: at Carolina, -7 (73.9%)

Undefeated odds: 38.2%
VIP odds: +160/-200 (36.6%)

There's not an official NO/ATL line out yet, but it's -8.5 -118/+114 at Matchbook, so I used the equivalent of that. And I bumped SBET's prospective DAL/NO line down half a point, since seven seemed a bit high.

My numbers put the odds of both teams going 16-0 at 9.8%, and the chances of at least one team finishing the regular season undefeated at 54.1%.

The Football Outsiders numbers are a bit less optimistic, putting the Saints at 21.6% and the Colts at 21.0%. They also put a Super Bowl titled the "Mercury Morris is a Royal Douchebag Bowl (IND-NO, both 18-0)" at a disappointing 0.8%.

Vegas Watch Top 16: December

Everybody's picks can be found here; we ended up with 71 entries. Awarding points for each seed on a 6-5-4-3 basis, here are the top 16 teams according to us:

Surprisingly, our top three already have the three best Pomeroy ratings in the country, although I think it's still too early to put much stock in that.

Two entries -- "Mean Girls" and "Point Plankin" -- kept Kansas from perfection. The Jayhawks haven't really challenged themselves thus far, although obviously that was their intention when they originally scheduled Memphis and UCLA. Kansas does play Michigan, Cal, Cornell, and Temple at home over the next month, but their first serious test doesn't come until they travel to Tennessee on January 10th.

I think we were a bit too hard on Tennessee as a group. They were only +1 against Purdue on a neutral court on 11/23, and lost by that same margin when Wayne Chism decided to hoist up an incredibly ill-advised three. It doesn't help that they don't have a notable win on their resume yet, and won't until at least New Year's Eve (at Memphis), but they have a great opportunity to get on the national radar with that KU game in January, and should win 11-13 games in the SEC.

It also looks like I'm a bit higher on Georgetown than most, putting them on the third line. I think this is partially validated by Tuesday night's line, which has them three points better than Butler on a neutral floor. The Hoyas haven't done anything of not thus far this season, but they also haven't lost. They have a pretty tough non-con schedule the rest of the way, facing Butler, Washington, and Duke, and then obviously plenty of opportunities to notch quality wins in Big East play. Even in a down year last year, they finished 27th in the nation in Pomeroy, and returned their three most efficient offensive players in Monroe, Wright, and Freeman.

I like this Top 16 output that comes from the 71 entries, and was thinking of extending the contest a bit, having people re-submit entries every month or so, and giving points on Selection Sunday based on each submission. It would probably make sense to award fewer and fewer points for each correct pick as the season goes on and evaluating teams gets easier. Let me know what you guys think of that idea or some variation of it in the comments.

Guessing the Seeds: My Entry

Entry name: Vegas Watch

1. Kansas
1. Kentucky
1. Texas
1. Purdue

2. West Virginia
2. Tennessee
2. Duke
2. Michigan St.

3. North Carolina
3. Syracuse
3. Villanova
3. Georgetown

4. Florida
4. Connecticut
4. Clemson
4. Minnesota

Commentary on both my picks and the other 70 entries coming later in the week.

This Week's Links (11/30-12/4)

The deadline for the Guessing the Seeds contest is midnight tonight.

FanGraphs is taking on a cool community projections project.

No more fisting. Very sad.

The Richmond Flying Squirrels unveiled their logos and opened the team store.

Posnanski on likely HoFers currently under 30.

2009 NFL Survivor: Week 13

Last week:
CIN: W, 16-7
DAL: W, 24-7
SD: W, 43-14
ATL: W, 20-17
GB: W, 34-12
PHI: W, 27-24
MIN: W, 36-10

Everybody won last week, although it was certainly close; 1.0% of OFP entries went down, while Yahoo! lost 2.7% and is down to 23,053. There are 29 people left in the ESPN VW group; I guess somebody joined after I linked to it last week?

Teams used (Weighted DVOA rank): New Orleans (1st), New England (2nd), Minnesota (4th), Philadelphia (5th), Green Bay (6th), Dallas (9th), Houston (11th), San Diego (12th), Atlanta (19th), Jacksonville (20th), Washington (23rd), Seattle (25th).

This week's consensus numbers from OFP and Yahoo!:

Cincinnati (vs. Detroit)

The Bengals are a very strong option at home against the Lions, favored by 13 and 84.3% to win according to the Pinnacle odds. They're also a very obvious option though, causing nearly 40% of the OFP population to pick them. That fact, along with the future value they still have in their Week 16 game against the Chiefs, makes continuing to look for a second option very much worthwhile.

San Diego (at Cleveland)

I've already used the Chargers, who are -13 themselves, although only 83.0% to win. San Diego is way less popular than Cincy, but has more future value, hosting the Redskins in Week 17. The Chargers are quite popular at the consensus sites, but given the uncertainty surrounding Week 17, and their lack of popularity in OFP relative to the Bengals, I think they're the better option between the two, not that it matters for my purposes.

Pittsburgh (vs. Oakland)

It took Pinnacle forever to release a line on this game, but it looks like Roethlisberger is going to play, so the Steelers are favored by 14. That's excellent news, since they're barely half as popular in OFP as the Bengals despite being more likely to win. There is some value in saving Pittsburgh, as their visit to Cleveland is one of the best options on next week's card. But there is a clearly superior option, with the Ravens hosting the Lions.

Baltimore becomes even more attractive after considering how few people still have them available, so there's no sense in saving the Steelers if using them next week is extremely unlikely, since their final three games (vs. GB, vs. BAL, @MIA) are pretty tough.

Chicago (vs. St. Louis)

The Bears are a reasonable enough option if you've already used each of the three teams above. They're favored by 9.5, 80.6% to win, and aren't all that popular in OFP. They do have some future value, when they visit Detroit in W17, but not a ton.

Denver (at Kansas City)

The Broncos are only favored by 4.5, and are under 67% to win. Don't pick them.

New Orleans (at Washington)

I've already used the Saints, who are favored by 9.5 in DC. If you're stuck picking between them and the Bears, Chicago is a better option since they're slightly more likely to win, and the Saints are going to be huge favorites at home against Tampa Bay in Week 16.

My options basically come down to the Bengals and Steelers, and for the reasons presented above I think Pittsburgh is the obvious choice this week. The only way I'd change that is if it was announced Roethlisberger wasn't going to play, or if the line moved significantly; if the Steelers are -14 when your deadline comes around, I'd definitely take them.