This summer MoneyLine, Jonny, RTC and myself took on the task of giving preseason KenPom ratings to each team in the six majors conferences, as well as a few other relevant one. I'll obviously have a full analysis of how we did after the season -- I'd say it's gone decent to well so far -- but for now I wanted to look at some of the teams we really missed on. This week we'll discuss some of the teams that have been much worse than we expected.
North Carolina
Projected: 0.930
Actual: 0.862
VW: Okay, we may have been wrong about UNC overall, but I was correct about one thing:
"Now I doubt that John Henson:2010 :: Tyler Hansbrough:2006..."Which really illustrates the main problem with projecting a team that lost 75% of its scoring; I didn't think Henson would be nearly as good as Hansbrough, but it was within the realm of possibility.
Davis has been as good as advertised, but Thompson hasn't, and the freshmen most certainly haven't; one of their five 4+ star recruits has an ORtg over 100, and only Strickland (who's been awful) has played more than 30% of possible minutes. Ginyard's injury definitely didn't help the already thin backcourt, but turnovers have been a problem on both ends of the floor with or without the senior guard.
RM: I wasn't around to vote on the ACC teams, but had I been, I would have definitely put the Heels above .900, and I would have also been wrong because UNC looks like an 8-8 team. The guard play of Drew the Second and Strickland is discouraging -- they've combined for 88 turnovers in eighteen games, or nearly five per contest. By comparison, Ty Lawson had 65 all of last season. Roy knows that it doesn't help to play uptempo basketball (+6.6 possessions vs. the average) if your primary ball handlers are giving most of those extra scoring opportunities away.
JP: After looking at the Tar Heels’ four factors two things really jump out: They turn the ball over too much, and they don’t get to the line. I don’t think comparing Drew II/Strickland to 2009’s most offensively efficient player is fair, but they clearly need to improve. By slowing it down and working the ball inside they can utilize the 3rd tallest team in the nation in effective height, and improve from here on out. Whether they do this, remains to be seen.
Washington
Projected: 0.908
Actual: 0.816
VW: Washington's biggest problem on offense has been horrendous shooting from deep; they're currently at 30.5% from three, which is 289th in the country. You'd think that will have to regress at some point, but they weren't great last year (33.7%, 179th), and they lost Dentmon, who shot 41.2%. It might be time to accept the fact that Isaiah Thomas isn't a very good shooter; he shot 29% on 134 attempts last year, and is 31/103 (30%) so far this season.
Washington has also fouled an incredible amount on defense, more than every other major conference team. Overton and Gaddy appear to be the biggest liabilities in this category, along with a couple of freshmen who don't play much but still manage to get their hacks in. I'm not quite sure what to make of this, but I know it's not helped by their opponents shooting 70% from the line.
RM: The biggest question mark I have about this team is what happened to Abdul Gaddy? The consensus #2 PG prospect behind John Wall has looked completely lost in a structured offense this year, and is bringing almost nothing other than spot minutes and poor shooting (41.5% eFG%) to the table.
VW: It indeed has; Iowa's KenPom rating has risen nearly 100 points since I started this e-mail thread last week. That's another thing we need to keep in mind -- some of these gaps may be huge now, but they will inevitably get smaller as more games are played.
Regardless, that's a lot of red. It's good that they've been so strong on the defensive glass, because otherwise they've had one of the worst defenses in the country. We all knew they were going to be bad, but I'm not sure how much lower we could have gone with the projection.
Auburn
Projected: 0.800
Actual: 0.640
Auburn
Projected: 0.800
Actual: 0.640
JP: Lucas Hargove, remove yourself from the 3-point line immediately. Thank you.
VW: Auburn's freshman class ended up being worse than one could've reasonably expected -- this is going to sound crazy, but it's inferior to even UNC's -- but I think this was a case where we overrated the gap between average seniors and 3* freshmen. Barber, Barrett, and Robertson weren't great, but they used up a lot of possessions without embarrassing themselves and played D. That's not going to win any championships, but it will keep you in the top 100 in KenPom.
RM: The one thing they do well (shoot twos at 53%), they don't do enough. Instead, they prefer to chuck up threes with reckless abandon, having six players tossing two or more a game at the rim. Beyond the stats, though, Barber was the heart and soul of that team. Once he left campus, Lebo's days were numbered.
Louisiana St.
Projected: 0.778
Actual: 0.493
VW: And here I was, thinking Georgia was clearly the worst team in the SEC; they're not even in the bottom three thus far. I think this is another example of us underrating the importance of depth, as I pointed out that they were going to have trouble finding production beyond Mitchell and Spencer, but apparently didn't realize just how difficult that would be.
One thing that would've been tough to predict is that Spencer would go from shooting 40% from three as a sophomore to 27% as a junior. They've seen a huge drop in 3P% as a team, going from 37% last year to 29% this year despite returning their best shooter; freshman Aaron Dotson's 6/38 (16%) has not helped matters.
RM: I thought Mitchell and Spencer could carry the Tigers so long as their freshmen stepped into vacated roles. Storm Warren has been a pleasant surprise to go along with that duo, but after those three, there's nobody doing much of anything here.
Oregon St.
Projected: 0.802
Actual: 0.482
VW: This is a strange one. The Beavers finished at .677 last year, and returned everybody except Ricky Claitt, who was very efficient but extremely low usage. I wasn't totally convinced that they had enough talent returning to take another big step forward, but I had no idea their offense would fall off a cliff like this (95th to 253rd).
RM: They also expected to have four-star recruit Roberto Nelson in the fold, but eligibility issues have sidelined him this season. Still, it is bizarre, because their offense has nearly fallen to 2008 levels (the 0-19 Pac-10 year). I'm not sure I've ever seen a high-major team get demolished by a mid-major on its home court like Seattle did to the Beavers, though -- that's a signal of more than just talent and execution being the problem.
JP: Craig Robinson needs to sit Joe Burton down and tell him he isn’t getting back on the floor until he agrees not to be an overly confident terrible offensive player. I know this is making a big deal out of someone playing less than half the game but his usage/offefficiency split is pretty disgusting. This team would benefit much more if they gave his possessions to senior Seth Tarver (as long as he agrees to not launch treys – of which he has not hit a single one in 2010).
UCLA
Projected: 0.907
Actual: 0.629
VW: I guess Darren Collison was an important part of their offense. Who knew? Everybody was wrong on the Bruins, and that certainly includes us. Five-star freshman Tyler Honeycutt has been useless, Dragovic's ORtg has fallen by almost 30 points, they're 333rd in the nation in FT%; it's really been an incredible fall from grace, and I'm not sure we could have seen it coming.
RM: Speaking of talent, Howland has a roster full of busts (among those who bothered to stick around). I'm still trying to figure out how on such a bad team J'Mison Morgan can only play 8 mpg and average 2 points and a single rebound. His five-star colleagues in the Class of 2008, Lee and Anderson, may not be the stars everyone thought they could be, but at least they're on the floor. Could that class be the worst #1 rated recruiting class of all-time?
Oklahoma
Projected: 0.878
Actual: 0.750
VW: Their offense has fallen off about as much as you'd expect considering what they lost, but it's been D that's really killed them. Griffin wasn't the greatest post defender ever, but he did pull in a ton of defensive boards, which is a factor we probably underrated. Their 3P defense has gotten a lot worse as well, which is something that should probably be expected when you have a 5'11 freshman playing over 80% of the time. Great name, though.
RM: Much of this has to fall on Willie Warren's inability to lead as a sophomore. His numbers are marginally improved (all but shooting %s), but it's no secret that Capel is unhappy with him. He's the kind of player who can carry a team for a while if he gets his head on straight, though, so out of the teams we've reviewed here I'd give OU the best shot to turn things around and make the NCAAs.
JP: I may just be my love for Tiny, but I agree that OU has a shot to turn this season around. Ryan Wright has been getting elevated minutes after a brief hiatus at the end of the bench, and has performed above expectations. If he can learn to play clean defense without making stupid ticky tack fouls, he could become a decent contributor for their stretch run. It also helps moving forward that OU has been quite unlucky defending 3’s (36.1%) and FTs (71.7%); both should regress.
RM: I thought Mitchell and Spencer could carry the Tigers so long as their freshmen stepped into vacated roles. Storm Warren has been a pleasant surprise to go along with that duo, but after those three, there's nobody doing much of anything here.
Oregon St.
Projected: 0.802
Actual: 0.482
VW: This is a strange one. The Beavers finished at .677 last year, and returned everybody except Ricky Claitt, who was very efficient but extremely low usage. I wasn't totally convinced that they had enough talent returning to take another big step forward, but I had no idea their offense would fall off a cliff like this (95th to 253rd).
RM: They also expected to have four-star recruit Roberto Nelson in the fold, but eligibility issues have sidelined him this season. Still, it is bizarre, because their offense has nearly fallen to 2008 levels (the 0-19 Pac-10 year). I'm not sure I've ever seen a high-major team get demolished by a mid-major on its home court like Seattle did to the Beavers, though -- that's a signal of more than just talent and execution being the problem.
JP: Craig Robinson needs to sit Joe Burton down and tell him he isn’t getting back on the floor until he agrees not to be an overly confident terrible offensive player. I know this is making a big deal out of someone playing less than half the game but his usage/offefficiency split is pretty disgusting. This team would benefit much more if they gave his possessions to senior Seth Tarver (as long as he agrees to not launch treys – of which he has not hit a single one in 2010).
UCLA
Projected: 0.907
Actual: 0.629
VW: I guess Darren Collison was an important part of their offense. Who knew? Everybody was wrong on the Bruins, and that certainly includes us. Five-star freshman Tyler Honeycutt has been useless, Dragovic's ORtg has fallen by almost 30 points, they're 333rd in the nation in FT%; it's really been an incredible fall from grace, and I'm not sure we could have seen it coming.
RM: Speaking of talent, Howland has a roster full of busts (among those who bothered to stick around). I'm still trying to figure out how on such a bad team J'Mison Morgan can only play 8 mpg and average 2 points and a single rebound. His five-star colleagues in the Class of 2008, Lee and Anderson, may not be the stars everyone thought they could be, but at least they're on the floor. Could that class be the worst #1 rated recruiting class of all-time?
Oklahoma
Projected: 0.878
Actual: 0.750
VW: Their offense has fallen off about as much as you'd expect considering what they lost, but it's been D that's really killed them. Griffin wasn't the greatest post defender ever, but he did pull in a ton of defensive boards, which is a factor we probably underrated. Their 3P defense has gotten a lot worse as well, which is something that should probably be expected when you have a 5'11 freshman playing over 80% of the time. Great name, though.
RM: Much of this has to fall on Willie Warren's inability to lead as a sophomore. His numbers are marginally improved (all but shooting %s), but it's no secret that Capel is unhappy with him. He's the kind of player who can carry a team for a while if he gets his head on straight, though, so out of the teams we've reviewed here I'd give OU the best shot to turn things around and make the NCAAs.
JP: I may just be my love for Tiny, but I agree that OU has a shot to turn this season around. Ryan Wright has been getting elevated minutes after a brief hiatus at the end of the bench, and has performed above expectations. If he can learn to play clean defense without making stupid ticky tack fouls, he could become a decent contributor for their stretch run. It also helps moving forward that OU has been quite unlucky defending 3’s (36.1%) and FTs (71.7%); both should regress.
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