Super Bowl XLIV Props Recap

Check out this post for the full odds on most of the props discussed below. Hopefully this analysis, as well as my recap posts from the last two years, will be helpful in the week leading up to SB XLV.

What will be the highest rated commercial on the USA Today Super Bowl Ad Meter?

You have to admit, this is pretty sick:

It goes without saying that the initial odds on Doritos (+1650) and Bud (+900) were fantastic; Bookmaker moved the lines multiple times after I wrote that post, and they both closed at +100. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think you could've watched the SB ads online prior to the game. It's hard to know how the people that USA Today asks will respond to the commercials, but the second I saw that Snickers (+1350) commercial, I knew their competitors were in trouble. Watching the commercials ahead of time would be a worthwhile exercise if odds are offered again next year. Seems obvious now, but I was quite crunched for time last week.

Who will the Super Bowl MVP of the Game thank first?

For (at least) the fourth consecutive year, "Does not thank anyone" (+450) was the winner on this prop. Hopefully they continue to offer this at similar odds in the future, because even at +150 or so I think "Does not thank anyone" is great value. It would just be extremely awkward for the MVP to respond to a question by specifically thanking people; these odds are good because it doesn't count if the MVP gives credit to someone, or anything like that, he has to specifically say "thank". Brees was plenty gracious -- he said "God is great", and talked about how the Saints had the best ownership, best head coach, best GM, and best team -- but none of those counted.

I saw some "Who will the winning coach thank first" odds offered as well; I didn't write about them because I wasn't sure what had happened with coaches in the past. But the Payton interview went very similarly to the Brees interview, so I'll have to keep an eye on "Does not thank anyone" for the coach prop as well next year.

What Color will the Gatorade be that is dumped on the Head Coach of the Winning Super Bowl Team?

"Orange" (+550) ended up winning. I'm not so sure where the value lies on this one anymore, as "clear/water" may have won three times in a row but that could have been a fluke, since it hasn't won either of the last two years.

How long will it take Carrie Underwood to sing the National Anthem?

I guess somebody knew something on this one, because the juice on O1:41 actually moved from +130 when I wrote the post to something like -150 by the time the game kicked off. I haven't gotten any official results from Bodog but I timed it at 1:46.82.

How Many Times will CBS show Archie Manning on TV during the Game?

I believe the under on this one, and possibly every single "How many times will CBS show X" prop, ended up winning. I didn't even consider the CBS vs. FOX thing when "handicapping" these, but the unders are clearly far better options when CBS is broadcasting the game, since they actually focus on the action on the field rather than the nonsense in the stands.

Which CBS Show will get the most Promo’s during the game? (For a show to be counted it must appear in a picture box on the screen during the game broadcast only.)

Bodog has still not graded this. I legitimately have no idea who won. They mentioned Undercover Boss repeatedly during the postgame, but did they show any "picture boxes" during the actual game? If they did, I missed it, but I wasn't exactly taking notes while watching.

Will Kim Kardashian Be Shown Wearing a Saints Shirt or Jersey During Super Bowl XLIV?

Kardashian announced that she would not be wearing a Saints jersey well before the game. "No" (-160) was the winner even though I don't think they ever showed her. There's a reason the limits on these are low.