2010 NFL Survivor: Second Round

First, to quickly recap last weekend, here are the consensus numbers from my pool (241 entries):

I was a bit off with some of my guesses, but I think I see what happened here. On Saturday, most people either went with the Saints, or thought NO was too obvious and resorted to the next "best" option, that being Indianapolis. Almost nobody was contrarian enough to pick the Seahawks -- even the percentage shown above is inflated, as two of the five SEA picks were submitted by me. Not many people took the Jets, who ended up being a great option, both in theory and practice.

Sunday shook out a bit differently. There were plenty of Ravens backers, as expected, but a much larger number took the contrarian angle and went with the Chiefs. Then, surprisingly, Green Bay was almost as popular as Philly, which actually meant that the favored Eagles were the best pick of the day.

In summary, here were the actual EVs for each combo (assuming a $1 entry fee), using the closing MLs and the consensus data from my pool:

Though it doesn't seem like it from the chart, these do average out to $1.00 when you weight them, since so many people had the Saints/Ravens combo.

It didn't end well, but a Saints-Chiefs pairing actually would have been a good idea. New Orleans wasn't a great selection by itself, but it made a lot of sense to try to get through Saturday with them, and then see a huge percentage of your fellow Saturday survivors get knocked out if the Ravens lost. For this EV analysis I used the granular data from each entry, rather than the overall percentages -- the high correlation between picking NO and picking BAL is why the NO/KC combo comes out looking so good. Something to keep in mind for next year.

On to this weekend, here are the consensus numbers from OFP:

Not sure what the sample size is here; I'm skeptical of there being zero NYJ/BAL selections. That's probably caused by these OFP pools being an extension of the regular season, so keep that in mind.

I certainly understand the logic behind going with the Bears -- huge faves this weekend, then you can take either Atlanta at home or Green Bay as a short dog next weekend, and the AFC in the Super Bowl. Makes perfect sense. So they're out.

Seems to me that the way to combat the Chicago strategy is taking the Falcons. That way you get a 2.5-point favorite this week, which isn't ideal but is the fourth best option available. Assuming the Bears win (which they will about 80% of the time), most of this week's Chicago backers will take Atlanta in the NFC title game. So then you can go against the consensus by taking Chicago; the Bears will be underdogs, but still about 1 in 3 to win. This also allows you to take the (very likely favored) AFC in the Super Bowl, if it comes to that.

Another reasonable option would be to go against the consensus right away, taking the Seahawks this weekend. Sure, you get knocked out right there 80% of the time, but if Seattle somehow advances it will knock a ton of people out, you'll get to pick favored GB/ATL in the NFC title game, and then the AFC in the Super Bowl.

Pittsburgh is also interesting. The Steelers are the third biggest favorites this weekend, but at least according to OFP, almost nobody is picking them. This would allow you to take the Pats next week, assuming they get by the Jets. It's actually possible that New England won't be all that popular in the AFC title game, since those who took them against NYJ obviously can't use them again, and most of the people that took the Bears (assuming they win) will probably use either ATL or GB in the NFCCG. The biggest issue here is that you'd have to pick the NFC winner vs. the Pats in the Super Bowl, but advancing that far is likely enough that I don't think it's a huge issue.

Green Bay wouldn't be a bad idea -- giving up a little advancement probability this week to be able to take the Bears at home next week -- but I already used them on both my remaining entries. While I do like the idea of taking the Seahawks, I think it's best to avoid taking 10-point underdogs when possible, so I'm going to take Atlanta and Pittsburgh on my two entries. If I had to pick one I'd probably go with the Falcons, but it's very close.