Last week:
DAL: W, 34-7
NO: W, 62-7
BAL: L, 12-7
GB: W, 33-27
Ponder was so close, but 87.3% of OFP ended up advancing to Week 8.
Teams used: Houston, Detroit, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, New England, Cincinnati, New Orleans.
This week's consensus numbers from OFP and Yahoo!:
Baltimore (vs. Arizona)The Ravens are the biggest favorite available to me this week, but I'd rather not use them unless absolutely necessary. Baltimore isn't absurdly popular, but they are the most frequently selected team, and they continue to have a lot of future value, with home games against the Colts and Browns in the last quarter of the season.
San Francisco (vs. Cleveland)
Not a big fan of the 49ers this week, as they're the second most popular team but only the sixth most likely to actually win.
NY Giants (vs. Miami)
The Giants are about as popular as SF, but are ~82% to win, as opposed to ~79%. New York's remaining home games are against PHI, GB, WAS, and DAL, so there's not a ton of value there.
New Orleans (at St. Louis)
Big road favorites, but I burned them last week. Strong option otherwise.
Tennessee (vs. Indianapolis)
A team that lost by 34 at home last week; now we're talking. Tennessee is very comparable to the Giants for this week after considering the probability/popularity tradeoff; they're a bit less likely to win, but a lot less popular. The Titans are also not an especially good team (only a significant favorite this week because their opponent is truly atrocious), which is a plus from a future value standpoint.
Houston (vs. Jacksonville)
Already used.
Considering all that, I'm going with the Titans this week.
With 10 weeks remaining (including this week), at what point do you look at the available winning teams that haven't been used (Packers, Bills, Ravens, Jets, Chargers, Giants, Falcons & 49ers; let alone teams such as Dallas or Philly who have underperformed) and stop considering future value of good teams, and risk a week on a lesser quality team?
ReplyDeleteAs we get closer to the end of the season (maybe three weeks from now; pretty decent chance I've lost by that point), I think it's worth charting out week-by-week, and figuring out not just how much future value each team has in a vacuum, but how much they have to your entry in particular (don't need both BAL and GB for W14).
ReplyDeleteI don't think we're quite there yet though, and especially for a team like BAL that has lots of value in 2+ weeks, I'd much rather save them as long as it's reasonable.
If you had Houston available would you take them over the Titans?
ReplyDeleteWould stick with TEN. No strong opinion either way though.
ReplyDeleteHi mr vegas watch , I already picked ternnesee and only have 1 more opponent left in my pool. I still have sf, giants and the ravens to pick from. My opponnent also has the same choices but he can take tennesee as well. Who would you take if you already used the titans?
ReplyDeleteRavens in that situation, definitely. Assuming you have already used the Saints.
ReplyDeleteToo funny! Why don't you just say you're going to take the Colts opponent the rest of the way and spare us all the expense! What an unimaginative, boring pick!
ReplyDeleteThe expense? Fuck off.
ReplyDeleteRc turnboat is just upset that he lost already by taking the giants and is taking out his frustration out on mr. Vegas watch...not cool....
ReplyDeleteAnd yes, mr vegas watch I did take the saints last week.
I've used TEN and HOU already. I have BAL, NYG, SF all available. Our pool allows one rebuy. I am one of five perfect, and there are about 30 with one loss. I'm thinking the Giants are the best option here, since Baltimore has so much future value. What do you think?
ReplyDeleteGiants seem like the way to go.
ReplyDeleteVegas - didnt realize this was a pay service. RC - go crawl back under the rock from where you came.
ReplyDeleteVegas
I do have a question about win probability. In your mind what is significant? 2% points? 5% points? I guess the Survivor Grid shows that 2% of WP (Ten 79% vs NYG 81%) is equal to 10 points (Ten 9% vs NYG 19%) of popularity? By the way the Survivor Grid is one helluva tool... at a great price!
I figured the choice was NYG or Ten this week. I was thinking less people might be on NYG but obviously those that are still alive (or only have one loss as in my pool) already used the Giants so they are still relatively popular.
I look forward to this analysis more than any other regarding football.. its not even the money just the science/art of it. Keep it coming!