Last week:
ATL: W, 24-14
CIN: W, 23-20
PIT: W, 13-9
DAL: W, 20-19
CAR: W, 27-19
NYJ: W, 28-24
HOU: W, 20-13
Well that is boring.
Teams used: Houston, Detroit, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, New England, Cincinnati, New Orleans, Tennessee, Philadelphia, Green Bay, Dallas, NY Jets.
This week's consensus numbers from OFP and Yahoo!:
The Patriots are a ridiculously good option this week, at ~95% to win and only being used by about 1 in 4 entries. Sadly I have already used them.Beyond that, the 49ers are by far the biggest favorite of the teams I have left. They're more popular than I'd prefer, but they really don't have much future value, so San Francisco is the pick this week.
Actually it was exciting and frustrating as I had atlanta and my two opponents had jets and bengals. Oh well.. Unfortunately we all have the niners and point spreads get turned on week 14. Is it worth the risk using baltimore (which they cant use) or chicago (which they can use). the safe play is to go with sf and then make a deal but I am wondering if I have a positive expected value with ravens. Wish the spread was closer to 10.
ReplyDeleteI calculated my own EV and it comes out a little ahead with Chicago (75% chance to win), a little behind with Baltimore (71% chance to win). There is an outside one of the other remaining players could take Chicago so if I am going to gamble I am thinking Baltimore is the only choice. What do you think?
ReplyDeleteI agree that Baltimore would be a better choice than Chicago, since there's no way either opponent picks the Ravens.
ReplyDeleteBeyond that, I think you should probably come up with your different EVs in the different scenarios based on if you pick BAL or SF, guess at how often those scenarios occur, and make the choice from there.
not sure if I am calculating it properly but it appears that my EV is .983 which really is insignificant. I think it is a matter of settling for onw third of the prize (assuming a deal) or going for it all.
ReplyDeleteI calculated EV by multiplying the %'s of four outcomes.. both win, both lose, one wins, one loses.. the probability of Bal winning and SF losing is 11% and the reverse is 24% based on Survivor Grid. Did I do this correctly?
Well, there's two different general scenarios, one in which you pick BAL, another in which you pick SF. Within that, there are combos based on who your opponents pick -- the combos could be BAL-SF-SF, BAL-SF-CHI, BAL-CHI-CHI, etc. Then you have to figure the probabilities of each of those scenarios, and figure out your overall EV if you pick BAL vs. if you pick SF.
ReplyDeleteoh I think there is a 99.9% chance that my opponents will pick SF. I will be shocked if they go Chicago but maybe I am underestimating them.
ReplyDeleteNo surprise. Both of my opponents went with sf. If I don't win this pool it's criminal
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ReplyDeleteI've already won my pool, but I'm trying to go 17-0 for fun.
ReplyDeleteGameboy, if you took BAL this week, who do you plan to take next week? I've been saving them for W14 or W16.
Unfortunately my pool goes to point spread now so the skills part of the competition is over
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