Last week:
BAL: W, 30-27
SF: W, 20-10
NYG: W, 20-17
NO: L, 31-21
TEN: W, 27-10
HOU: W, 24-14
The flipping Cardinals.
Teams used: Houston, Detroit, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, New England, Cincinnati, New Orleans, Tennessee.
This week's consensus numbers from OFP and Yahoo!:
Houston (vs. Cleveland)Already picked.
Atlanta (at Indianapolis)
Not sure why the Falcons are so popular in Y!. Despite my apparent obsession with fading the Colts, no real interest in Atlanta this week.
Dallas (vs. Seattle)
Dallas (vs. Seattle)
The Cowboys are the second biggest favorite of the week by a pretty good margin, and not especially popular (particularly in OFP). So that is a good start. They don't have much future value either, with one exception -- hosting the Dolphins in Week 12. That wouldn't normally be a huge deal, but W12 is shaping up to be tricky.
Oakland (vs. Denver)
Oakland (vs. Denver)
Speaking of the Broncos. The Raiders aren't favored by as much as the Cowboys, but they're noticeably less popular, and if I don't use Oakland now I can't see there being another opportunity.
Kansas City (vs. Miami)
Kansas City (vs. Miami)
Not even close.
New England (vs. NY Giants)
New England (vs. NY Giants)
New Orleans (vs. Tampa Bay)
Already used.
Philadelphia (vs. Chicago)
Philadelphia (vs. Chicago)
A third solid option; big favorites and almost nobody's using them. Future value-wise, the Eagles are going to be large favorites against the Cardinals next week. However, I think Philly is going to be really popular next week because a) the Cardinals suck, b) not many survivors have picked the Eagles (some people picked them in Weeks 2-6, but they're no longer with us), and c) the other really obvious pick next week is the Packers, and a LOT of people have used them.
So can't be positive, but I don't think I'll end up needing the Eagles next week. In W17 though, they host Washington. The last week of the season is normally a mess, with some wacky spreads because the game doesn't matter much (if at all) for some of the elite teams. But it doesn't seem like Philly will be in that boat in W17, since they're currently two games behind the Giants, and tied with the Cowboys; that game will likely matter quite a bit for the Eagles.
In the end, I think Dallas' W12 value outweighs Philly's W10+W17 value, so this week's pick is Philadelphia.
Even though they're road games, don't you think Philly has decent future value in Week 13 and Week 14? My pool goes to two picks per week starting in Week 11 so I feel like I need to save teams with viable options for those weeks since if I make it there, I'll be stretched pretty thin. With that in mind, I'm leaning towards Oakland--don't have Dallas anymore unfortunately.
ReplyDeleteSince we are looking several weeks ahead, any thought about the Chargers in Week 12 against Denver over Dallas against Miami? Looking at the Survivor Grid, San Diego has little value except for week 12.
ReplyDeleteYou explained why Philly over Dallas, but not why Philly over Oakland. Seems like W10+W17 value is still better than no future value at all.
ReplyDeleteBodak - Philly more likely to win this week and less popular.
ReplyDeleteBruno - Looked at that one, but the Chargers are +5.5 at home against the Packers this week. I know Green Bay is good, but that is not a good sign for SD.
DJ - With two picks in Weeks 11+, I think Oakland this week makes sense.
Mr. Vegas Watch, I have 1 more opponent to beat and have Houston, Dallas and Pitt, as well as Philly left to use... My opponent already used Houston but still has Dallas and Philly available.
ReplyDeleteI don't have GB left and I might not have a lot of options for next week...
Would it be wise to Take Houston or Dallas this week and Save Philly for next week?
What team would u recommend based on my situation?
Houston, not even close.
ReplyDeleteI'm still not sure your logic on PHI over OAK. If PHI and OAK have the same spread this week, what's the benefit to taking PHI? It seems to me more likely that most people will pick each team about equally, but there's more future benefit to PHI than to OAK.
ReplyDeleteI'm still not sure your logic on that comment. PHI and OAK having the same spread is truly fascinating, have you ever heard of "juice" or a "money line"? It seems to me that the empirical data says more people are picking OAK than PHI, so why would anyone possibly care what "seems more likely" to you?
ReplyDeleteWhy even bother? Seriously.
I bother because I seriously don't get your logic of taking -390 (PHI) over -370 (OAK) when both are less than 10% when that leaves you next week with no good option other than PHI or GB. If you're logic is to leverage GB to its greatest advantage, why not wait until W14 when others will be out of options, rather than next week when the easy out of PHI will be there?
ReplyDeleteOf note, my survivor league requires players to pick twice starting in W14 and has 49 players left, so making it through W14 is a priority.
And forgive my lack of precision, but "about equally" meant between 4-8%, rather than 4-20%, which would be involved if someone picked DAL.
Thank u mr. Vegas watch
ReplyDeleteIf you want to justify picking Oakland over Philadelphia because a bunch of numbers are "close enough", go for it. I don't care.
ReplyDeleteJust pick Oakland and spare us all the expense.
ReplyDeleteIf you still had the pats would you use them instead of Philly?
ReplyDeleteThanks, makes sense to me.
ReplyDeleteMr. Vegas-Thanks for getting me this far. Based on your previous comment are you saying Houston is the pick over Philly this week if I have Houston available? Down to three guys...Thanks for all the help!
ReplyDelete2 of us left Opp using Houston who I already used.
ReplyDeleteOak or Philly?
I still have NE in my back pocket and he does not. I feel if I keep Philly I hold the advantage having NE avail. If I use Philly and he plays Philly next week I'll be forced to play Balt (he also still has Balt)
LogWay - Don't think so.
ReplyDeleteFotios - Depends who the other guys have left.
ERICE - OAK this week if you are going to need PHI next week.
One of the guys has Houston remaining as an option. The other guy's only choice I see is to use PHI...Thanks again for the insight!
ReplyDeleteThanks VW, one last question. Your taking Philly this week and likely Green Bay next week right? If you had already used GB would you be selecting Oakland or Dallas this week instead and saving the Eagles for week 10?
ReplyDeleteI see that Raiders and Eagles are -8 and -7.5 respectively in most Vegas sportsbooks. Survivor Grid has -9. Which spread did you use? Does it matter?
ReplyDeleteFotios - If one guy is very likely to pick PHI and the other is probably going to pick HOU, I would try to avoid picking either of them.
ReplyDeleteLogWay - If I had already used Green Bay, I would no be taking PHI.
gameboy - Use the money lines rather than the spreads.
Thanks Mr. Vegas-Since neither have Dallas available I should go with the Cowboys right? I hear what your saying about week 12 being tricky which is my only concern about picking the Cowboys this week.
ReplyDeleteThanks Again!!!
Cowboys sounds like a very strong option then.
ReplyDeleteoakland or KC?? 2 picks in week 10 and I am thinking Philly and GB next week.
ReplyDeleteHere is my Grid: http://farm7.static.flickr.com/6050/6306334361_98178e4347_z.jpg
See you next year bud
ReplyDeletewhat a DUMB pick! you should have just kept pkcking against the Colts, numbnuts.
ReplyDeleteAlways enjoy the insight. See you next yr buddy fuck the haters!!!
ReplyDeleteI would have lost with my top picks anyways without Hou being avail.
NE=lost
Oak=Lost
Philly=Lost
7 point lead in 4th qtr at home. Ridiculous. I am still in my double elimination pool - would have won already if it was single elimination. Keep up the good work.
ReplyDelete