2011 NFL Survior: Second Round

Well, the Texans-Broncos combo worked out well, which was fortunate. In my particular pool Houston actually ended up being more popular than New Orleans, which must have been people wanting to save NOLA for future rounds. That made Saints-Broncos the best combo from an round one EV standpoint, although it's obviously not as attractive when you consider future value.

Anyway, on to the next round. This week I only need to make one pick. I think it makes more sense to look at this from the standpoint of picking a path the rest of the way, rather than just picking one team this week.

For example, if I pick Baltimore this week, that basically means I need to pick the DEN-NE winner next week, since if that team doesn't beat Baltimore I'm screwed anyway. And then in the Super Bowl I'd be left with the NFC winner, since I wouldn't have the AFC champ available.

With that in mind, here are my estimates for surviving through each round based on who you pick this week, which I figured out using various Pinny markets:

Worth noting that there's a negative correlation between the R2 and CC columns. For example, if you pick DEN this week and they win, then you get to pick either Baltimore or Houston hosting the Broncos next week. On the other hand, if you pick New England and advance, you're forced to take the Ravens or Texans on the road in Foxboro, which is less than ideal.

The numbers in this chart didn't surprise me much. Baltimore is the obvious choice, since if BAL advances you can (likely) take New England next week, and then the (likely favored) NFC in the Super Bowl.

I don't think they're the best pick though, as popularity has a huge effect here:

Realistically, I have no idea how many people are going to pick the underdogs; it hasn't happened in either of the last two years in this pool, but there are a lot more people left at this point than there have been in the past.

I don't think it really matters though. As long as you're in a decent sized pool, I would go with Denver. It's an extremely ugly pick this week -- which is the best part, really -- but it puts you in a great position in future weeks, and gives you a chance to be the only person to remain undefeated through the Super Bowl.