2011 NFL Survivor: Wild Card Weekend

Quick format summary: Same idea as regular season Survivor: except pick one team on Wild Card Saturday, one on WC Sunday, one in second round, one on CC Sunday, one in Super Bowl. Can't use any team twice, lose and you're out.

As noted on Twitter the other day, this year's first round doesn't set up quite as favorably as it has in the past.

Last season there was a huge favorite on Saturday (New Orleans) which was extremely popular, as you'd expect. But on Sunday, the majority of entrants picked the Ravens, who were the day's biggest favorite but only ~61% to win. This essentially meant that any of the other three Sunday options were strong picks, particularly the Chiefs (who got blown out, of course).

This year both days set up pretty much the same as that Saturday, with the Saints at ~84% to beat the Lions, and Pittsburgh about 78% to advance against Denver. The one positive is that taking those two is the very obvious pick, and I'd expect over half the entries to go that route. In fact, I have made up consensus numbers for each team:

Saints 70%
Texans 17%
Bengals 10%
Lions 3%

Steelers 68%
Giants 17%
Falcons 8%
Broncos 7%

These numbers, along with the MLs from Pinny, give us almost everything we need. Just a few more things to consider:

• If someone picks New Orleans on Saturday, they're more likely to take Pittsburgh on Sunday than the average entry. In math terms, the % of entries that take both NO and PIT will be higher than the straight calculation of (.70)*(.68). This is taken into account in the EV table below.

• Future value isn't normally too much of an issue in the first round, since the teams that advance will all be playing road games next weekend. However, this season the Saints are the second favorite to win the NFC (+298/-341 at Pinny), so that must be considered. Pittsburgh also has a worthwhile amount of future value (+528/-642), if not quite as much. This is not taken into account in the EV table below.

• Beyond a specific team's future value, it's worth considering how you set yourself up for future weeks. For example, I think it's worthwhile to try to avoid picking the Lions if possible. That way, if the Saints win (likely) and I advance (maybe), I'll have the option of picking New Orleans over SF next week, which will not be a popular option since a) most survivors will have already used them, and b) they're on the road.
  

And finally, the EV table below (assuming $1 entry fee):

Unsurprisingly, the really obvious combo doesn't do very well in this analysis, as even if you advance by picking those two teams, it's guaranteed that at least half of your competitors will still be alive as well.

Such a popular pick being -EV allows 14 of the other 15 possibilities to be at least breakeven. Since I'm assuming only a 17/10 split in popularity between HOU/CIN, despite the Texans being 62% to advance, they come out looking like a pretty good option to pair with any non-Steelers partner.

I think the EVs in the chart above give us a good general idea of the best picks, but it's tough to be exact due to the uncertainty and importance of the consensus numbers. I will stand by Texans/Broncos as the best combo though, as it has a decent lead on the field.

Of course, there's a 87% chance that combo doesn't survive the weekend; all I'm really trying to do here is predict which option will have the highest EV when I repeat this analysis with the "real" consensus numbers next week.