Comments on Vegas Watch: Regional Previews: West

Duke? Interesting...I was on the Duke bandwagon u...

2008-03-19T23:27:00.000-04:00

Duke? Interesting...I was on the Duke bandwagon until very recently. They just haven't looked good to me. But who knows??

Reasons for not wanting to pick UCLA:1. They got l...

2008-03-19T20:49:00.000-04:00

Reasons for not wanting to pick UCLA:

1. They got luck in their last two home games, and at that point everyone started to declare them the best team in the country. This annoys me.
2. Mbah a Moute is hurt.
3. I do think they have a tricky draw.
4*. http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=simmons/080319

*This was not an actual reason, and I did not even see this article until after I wrote the post. It is strong logic, though.

I think perhaps Aram's point was that once you got...

2008-03-19T20:43:00.000-04:00

I think perhaps Aram's point was that once you got around to talking about UCLA, you clearly noted that Duke is a notch below UCLA without giving any clear reason why the Blue Devils should be your pick. Perhaps it has something to do with UCLA having a tougher road?

Whoa there with the full name, Aram.I don't really...

2008-03-19T18:52:00.000-04:00

Whoa there with the full name, Aram.

I don't really see your point. The #1 seeds are each going to have the highest % chance to reach San Antonio- would you like me to have a Final Four of UNC, KU, Memphis, and UCLA? Would that be interesting?

My bracket will be up later tonight with some expl...

2008-03-19T18:50:00.000-04:00

My bracket will be up later tonight with some explanations.

It's the chalkiest bracket I have done in years. You'll be a bit surprised by some of it.

reading this it seems like you're picking duke jus...

2008-03-19T18:39:00.000-04:00

reading this it seems like you're picking duke just to prove they aren't the supposed weak 2 seed. As far as the Xavier bandwagon, maybe i'm just a sap for a great story, but I like Bayor, talent tends to win in march, and looking at Drew's recruiting classes, theres definitely talent in Waco, beside a double digit seed has to make the second week, they always do.

Marquette???That's not mine (well, maybe it is, I ...

2008-03-19T18:08:00.000-04:00

Marquette???

That's not mine (well, maybe it is, I haven't figured it out yet), but given your description it's my guess for yours. Unless you've done a complete 180 on the Longhorns. I haven't.

Our Final 4 picks are the same so far. That isn't...

2008-03-19T18:05:00.000-04:00

Our Final 4 picks are the same so far. That isn't surprising considering how similar we think.

I went back and forth between Duke and UCLA.

I think our selections from the South will be different though.

Looking at the KenPom archives, I only see region ...

2008-03-19T15:09:00.000-04:00

Looking at the KenPom archives, I only see region breakdown/log5 computations for the past two years. Among the 8/9 seeds, the highest percentages of winning their 2nd round game were both in 2006, Arizona at 18.82% and Kentucky at 18.55%. Both suffered 4-point losses.

The Arizona loss was a 2-point deficit with 1:31 to go, and trading layups and free-throws for the last 91 seconds resulted in a Villanova victory. The UK loss to UConn was similar: down 2 at the 0:52 mark, but the #1 seed made their free throws to hold on for victory.

Last year, the two highest were Michigan State (12.72%), who lost an 81-67 contest to UNC. The Spartans held a 59-58 lead with 6:54 left on the clock, and would be outscored 23-8 over the remainder of the game. Xavier also had a 12.37% chance of succeeding in the 2nd round, and while I'll remind you the final score was OSU 78, Xavier 71, I doubt I have to remind anyone that this was the closest to being an upset out of any of the previously mentioned games.

So this year... Indiana is given a whopping 21.26% chance of moving on to the Sweet Sixteen... Texas A&M at 18.67%. Granted, a very small sample size, but the 4 games presented in the last 2 years should indicate that #8/9 seeds with better than a 10-to-1 shot of playing on the second weekend hold tremendous value at 40:1 and 60:1, respectively, to win 4 consecutive games.