Comments on Vegas Watch: You're Not Even Trying

I am in New York. For the next month, anyway.

2008-07-25T21:16:37.659-04:00

I am in New York. For the next month, anyway.

Hey, anyone in the NYC area? I'm looking for a gam...

2008-07-25T20:20:34.587-04:00

Hey, anyone in the NYC area? I'm looking for a gambling buddy and someone to just bounce ideas off of. It's so hard to find someone in real life who's serious about gambling the way everyone on here who reads this blog does.

haha yeah i was noticing that myself, i meant to d...

2008-07-22T18:16:39.362-04:00

haha yeah i was noticing that myself, i meant to delete cardinals from mine. amusing indeed mchale

By saying you can spread them out among 4 teams yo...

2008-07-22T18:07:19.142-04:00

By saying you can spread them out among 4 teams you limited them to 4 correct?

If that is the case, then 4 out of 11 people couldn't follow your simple directions the first time.

If you were requiring them to spread them across 4 teams (which I don't think you were), then 7 out of 11 didn't follow directions the first time.

Just thought you might appreciate the breakdown, figuring your love for stats.

Contest is now closed. Thanks to everybody who en...

2008-07-22T15:56:47.997-04:00

Contest is now closed. Thanks to everybody who entered. The winner may or may not receive a prize in October.

Spankees $20Phailers $25Mess $25Milly-Wau-Kay $30

2008-07-22T12:23:55.391-04:00

Spankees $20
Phailers $25
Mess $25
Milly-Wau-Kay $30

Dodgers for 50 Red Sox for 20 Tigers for 20 Philli...

2008-07-22T09:39:40.640-04:00

Dodgers for 50
Red Sox for 20
Tigers for 20
Phillies for 10

Vegas Watch: My girlfriend tells me that every da...

2008-07-22T09:25:40.759-04:00

Vegas Watch: My girlfriend tells me that every day. I guess I'll go with the Mets for $60, the Rays for $30, and the Athletics for $10.

White Sox $60Phillies $20Rays $10D'Backs $10

2008-07-22T01:37:05.541-04:00

White Sox $60
Phillies $20
Rays $10
D'Backs $10

I think Passan actually does mean a 5/9 chance for...

2008-07-22T00:18:41.957-04:00

I think Passan actually does mean a 5/9 chance for the Cubs and Angels because otherwise it would be a big gap from 80% to the 3rd place Red Sox team at 33%. Then all of a sudden the next 8 teams are bunched up between 11% and 20%?

I would go:Phillies - 5/1 $58Mets - 7/1 $42I pic...

2008-07-21T22:28:42.037-04:00

I would go:

Phillies - 5/1 $58
Mets - 7/1 $42

I picked this hedge because I think it gives the best chance for both wagers to hit.

I'll the first one to take the (my hometown) D'Bac...

2008-07-21T22:00:55.160-04:00

I'll the first one to take the (my hometown) D'Backs, merely because they have pitching and play in a terrible division.

D'Back - $42
Mets - $12
Tampa Bay - $22
Phillies - $12
White Sox - $12

$30 phillies $20 brewers$20 yankees$20 cardinals$1...

2008-07-21T20:02:38.657-04:00

$30 phillies
$20 brewers
$20 yankees
$20 cardinals
$10 marlins

marlins 99/1 seems too long shot. pitching and defense suck, and they allegedly win championships, but to just make the playoffs i am def throwing money down on them

But, seriously:$60 - Mets$15 - Twins$15 - White So...

2008-07-21T18:52:34.188-04:00

But, seriously:

$60 - Mets
$15 - Twins
$15 - White Sox
$10 - Tigers

"Athletics for $3.""All $100 on the Mets!"You guys...

2008-07-21T18:36:39.824-04:00

"Athletics for $3."
"All $100 on the Mets!"

You guys aren't very good at following instructions.

I'll go with White Sox for $35, Twins for $35 and ...

2008-07-21T18:25:31.295-04:00

I'll go with White Sox for $35, Twins for $35 and Tigers for $30. That way I'm virtually guaranteed to wind up with no less than $245 (and more if the Tigers make it or if any of these teams is the Wildcard).

This is fun ... can we convince Passan to open up a sportsbook?

All $100 on the Mets! Hedge my ass!

2008-07-21T17:55:34.626-04:00

All $100 on the Mets! Hedge my ass!

I'll take the Mets for $35, the White Sox for $35,...

2008-07-21T17:04:09.481-04:00

I'll take the Mets for $35, the White Sox for $35, and the Rays for $30.

The great things about these odds is even giving him the benefit of the doubt (which affects the Cubs and Angels the most), if you compare them to BP's Pecota adjusted odds each team shows up as +EV so no team is really a bad bet here!

I'll go with the Mets for $60, the Rays for $37, a...

2008-07-21T16:54:04.789-04:00

I'll go with the Mets for $60, the Rays for $37, and the Athletics for $3.

So, for our purposes, the odds are:Cubs 1/4Angels ...

2008-07-21T16:24:46.632-04:00

So, for our purposes, the odds are:

Cubs 1/4
Angels 1/4
Red Sox 1/1
Rays 3/1
D'Backs 3/1
Dodgers 4/1
Brewers 5/1
Phillies 5/1
White Sox 7/1
Twins 7/1
Mets 7/1
Cardinals 9/1
Yankees 9/1
Tigers 14/1
Rangers 74/1
Athletics 99/1
Marlins 99/1