Comments on Vegas Watch: What Are The Odds: 16-0

I think Belicheck's scoring tendencies this year i...

2007-11-01T12:51:00.000-04:00

I think Belicheck's scoring tendencies this year indicate that he could careless what people think of him. Plus would it be any worse than being known as the 'guy who got brady hurt playing in a meaningless game before the playoffs'?

If they get to 15-0 heading into the NYG game, I t...

2007-10-31T15:13:00.000-04:00

If they get to 15-0 heading into the NYG game, I think they have to play the starters regardless of HFA.

Do you really want to be known as the team/coach/player who had a chance to be perfect, but benched Brady instead?

That's an interesting point. Although, the way th...

2007-10-31T14:52:48.101-04:00

That's an interesting point. Although, the way they've been going, would anybody be surprised if Belichick played all his starters, at least for the first half?

the Pats have a big chance of losing at NYG Game 1...

2007-10-31T14:43:00.000-04:00

the Pats have a big chance of losing at NYG Game 16 if they are 15-0, because they will have HFA locked up.

If either team loses a game this season (after Sun...

2007-10-31T14:34:48.528-04:00

If either team loses a game this season (after Sunday, of course), then the most likely culprits to beat them are:

Colts:
SD (at home vs. Indy)
BAL (at home vs. Indy - revenge game)

Pats:
BAL (at home vs. NE) or
PIT (at NE)

Other than that, I don't see either team losing the rest of the way.

Xei- it's not so much a formula, but just taking t...

2007-10-31T14:34:27.284-04:00

Xei- it's not so much a formula, but just taking the money line and converting that into a %, then adjusting it so the %s for the two teams add up to 100%.

Portola- I think the link k-man posted is the best analysis of that you'll find. I think it's pretty hard to do that kind of thing was such a small sample though. Like, how much credit do you give the Pats for winning by 45? Is it really that much more impressive than not going for it on 4th down when you're up 31 (or whatever it was), and winning by 24?

Looking at the schedules alone, I think the favor ...

2007-10-31T14:25:00.000-04:00

Looking at the schedules alone, I think the favor clearly has to go to NE. They're remaining opponents (after this Sunday) are 22-30 with 3 road games, while the Colts' are 28-29 with 4 on away from RCA.

NE has also palyed an extra game, so they have a shorter (in addition to easier) remaining schedule.

I'm curious to know whether there is a statistical way to calculate the 16-0 odds based on remaining opponents winning percentage and home/away splits.

VW, do you care to share the conversion formula/ta...

2007-10-31T13:49:00.000-04:00

VW, do you care to share the conversion formula/table? Is it online somewhere??
vr, Xei

K-man: Thanks, that's interesting. I figured that...

2007-10-31T10:21:12.937-04:00

K-man: Thanks, that's interesting. I figured that that kind of analysis would probably have them lower than the lines do.

Xei: Yes, and that's what I did to calculate NE's chances of winning on Sunday.

Out of curiousity is there a way to convert point ...

2007-10-31T10:14:00.000-04:00

Out of curiousity is there a way to convert point spreads to %win probabilities. For example if the Colts are 3 point favorites (making this up) over the Patriots, could it be converted to saying something along the lines of the Colts having a win probability of 65%.? Thanks.
vr, Xei

Here's a statistical projection (The methadology i...

2007-10-31T04:53:00.000-04:00

Here's a statistical projection (The methadology is explained in detail on the site.) to compare to the Vegas lines to.

http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds.php

Here's the meat of the issue:

Chances of New England going 16-0: 12.3%
Chances of Indy going 16-0: 4.7%

Well, I like to think that the other stuff here is...

2007-10-31T02:45:39.815-04:00

Well, I like to think that the other stuff here is also interesting, but I do understand your point. There's not enough of this material to do this kind of thing every day, however.

I would like to note that the "hype it up" icon currently reads zero, as someone apparently "hyped it down". I have never seen a "0" on BallHype before.

Why don't you do this all the time. This is Vegas...

2007-10-31T02:38:00.000-04:00

Why don't you do this all the time. This is Vegas Watch, right? this is what you do best. It's too bad you venture from your niche so often.