Comments on Vegas Watch: 2009 NFL Survivor: Week 4

I'm starting to regret my SF pick.

2009-10-03T17:07:06.885-04:00

I'm starting to regret my SF pick.

i am also scared of oakland this week....i think t...

2009-10-03T14:57:10.920-04:00

i am also scared of oakland this week....i think they can beat anybody any given week.....with that said, i really like san fran this week a lot. kyle "I should of been a" bowler is starting and i can not see any way he can lead the rams to victory over a very MAD and ANGRY 9ers team who lost on a last second fluke miracle play...

I guess i'm just asking do you also feel this strongly about SAN FRAN??

Yep. Because of both that and the payout ($100K t...

2009-10-03T12:57:20.415-04:00

Yep. Because of both that and the payout ($100K to the winner, $0 for everyone else), I think there is usually some kind of deal worked out once they get down to a few people.

A little late to the game here, but how do your gu...

2009-10-03T12:52:34.583-04:00

A little late to the game here, but how do your guys' pools work that go into the playoffs? What if you had neither Pitt nor Arizona left last year in the Super Bowl? Do you just get a strike or eliminated if it's a one and done?

"if u are choosing between the giants and Indy thi...

2009-10-02T17:56:56.222-04:00

"if u are choosing between the giants and Indy this week, who would be the better choice?"

The Colts.

"VW - How long before you get hired at ESPN as a Survivor Guru?"

I realize this was said with tongue firmly in cheek, but I tried to pitch this weekly article to Jimmy Traina at SI last year and it didn't work. Probably a good thing, really, because I think this blog would be a lot less interesting from September to December without these posts.

VW - How long before you get hired at ESPN as a Su...

2009-10-02T14:53:40.232-04:00

VW - How long before you get hired at ESPN as a Survivor Guru?

HEY Vegas Watch, I think I was to go with either I...

2009-10-02T11:32:18.701-04:00

HEY Vegas Watch,
I think I was to go with either Indy or NY Giants this week.
Oakland kind of scares me this week and can easily pull upset against the texans this week.

if u are choosing between the giants and Indy this week, who would be the better choice?
Thanks,

"Also, to follow up on what Micahel said in regard...

2009-10-02T09:52:48.075-04:00

"Also, to follow up on what Micahel said in regards to the teams strenghts, obviously Oakland's strength (well, what they are not the worst at) offensively is running the ball. Houston's run D has basically been a swinging gate this year. Kind of scares me a little."

It's factored into the line.

Did you ever give anymore thought to the Indy pick?

I have not, but let's do that now.

According to the Pinny MLs, Indy is 82.8% to win right now, while Houston is 78.3%. The tricky thing here is how often the two teams are actually going to be picked in any real pool. Yahoo! says 9.6% for the Colts, and 6% for the Texans; I don't buy that. Let's say 18% for Indy, and 5% for Houston. That still makes the Colts more attractive before you factor in their future value, which is limited. In a straight pool -- no playoffs, one loss and you're out -- I'd probably go with Indy. If the playoffs are involved, or if you get more than one "strike" (or both, like Deebs' pool), I think Houston is the clear choice.

VW, Did you ever give anymore thought to the Indy...

2009-10-02T09:29:48.023-04:00

VW,

Did you ever give anymore thought to the Indy pick? Also, to follow up on what Micahel said in regards to the teams strenghts, obviously Oakland's strength (well, what they are not the worst at) offensively is running the ball. Houston's run D has basically been a swinging gate this year. Kind of scares me a little.

Houston's strength is its passing offense, and tha...

2009-10-01T19:00:35.443-04:00

Houston's strength is its passing offense, and that's precisely where Oakland is strong.

Anyway, VW, I've been reading the blog since I discovered it last year, and your advice helped lead me to first place in my Survivor league. I just wanted to say thanks for your posts; they're tremendously helpful.

Deebs, I would definitely take the DVOA playoff o...

2009-10-01T16:24:30.397-04:00

Deebs,

I would definitely take the DVOA playoff odds into consideration each week; a lot of times the make the decision for you, like with the Houston/Indianapolis situation this week.

You also should probably be more willing to sacrifice % chance of winning in any particular week in order to save teams for the playoffs because of the three strike thing. I don't have any particular formula to offer, but we can certainly go through it in the comments here when necessary.

Vegas Watch said: "Another thing on the COlts is t...

2009-10-01T15:04:52.166-04:00

Vegas Watch said: "Another thing on the COlts is that my big pool continues into the playoffs, so I definitely have to take Houston in that one."

I'm in a Survivor League with the following format:

- Each player gets 3 strikes
- The league continues into the playoffs
- 150+ entries
- Top 3 eliminations are paid.

This is my first time participating, but last year, the league came down to the SuperBowl. Both players had Arizona left. They tied for first.

What changes, if any, would you recommend from a strategic perspective? I'm trying to save likely playoff teams as long as I can -- I'm playing Houston this week, and have already played New Orleans, Washington, and Dalls.

How aggressive is optimal strategy? Can you think of a good way to track and weight performance? (Combination of DAVE and Playoff Likelihood of teams remaining for all players + Strikes acquired, etc.)

Thanks,

Deebs

Another thing on the Colts is that my big pool con...

2009-10-01T10:19:19.379-04:00

Another thing on the Colts is that my big pool continues into the playoffs, so I definitely have to take Houston in that one.

Remember the info I posted after week 1 on the log...

2009-10-01T00:49:51.733-04:00

Remember the info I posted after week 1 on the logistic regression using DVOA margin and HFA to predict the chances of winning a game? Well, I'm still keeping track of those predictions, so just for ships and giggles, here is what those odds say about the games you reviewed (first number is using DAVE, second is using the weighting that VW came up with):

NYG 77%/82%
SF 63%/70%
CHI 86%/86%
IND 80%/81%
CIN 77%/83%
HOU 66%/68%

No other games are over 80% for either weighting.

"In a very small pool of 30+ with only 17 remainin...

2009-09-30T23:28:53.641-04:00

"In a very small pool of 30+ with only 17 remaining, would you still go with Houston?"

Why not?

"Indy just went up as a 10.5 point favorite." Of ...

2009-09-30T23:27:53.772-04:00

"Indy just went up as a 10.5 point favorite."

Of course the line goes up 15 minutes after I finish the writeup. Thanks for posting though.

Colts are definitely a legit option, according to the Olympic MLs they are 80.6% to win while Houston is 78.6%. Two issues with Indy:

-While they're not a popular selection *now*, I'd imagine they will be now that there's a line out and it's the only one of the week in double digits. This is especially true in more "sophisticated" pools, where more people wait until later in the week to submit their picks and pay more attention to the line.

-Along with the two weeks you mentioned, the Colts could have value in W8 (vs. SF, who I don't think is actually good) and W9 (vs. HOU). Those aren't locks to be plays (far from it), but there is definitely value in having that option, which you don't get with the Texans.

I'll give it some more thought tomorrow, and am curious to see the Pinny ML when they release it, but for now I'm leaning towards staying with Houston.

In a very small pool of 30+ with only 17 remaining...

2009-09-30T22:22:23.748-04:00

In a very small pool of 30+ with only 17 remaining, would you still go with Houston? I was counting on SF being the pick.

Indy just went up as a 10.5 point favorite. I thi...

2009-09-30T19:55:19.844-04:00

Indy just went up as a 10.5 point favorite. I think they're worth considering as a) they're not extremely popular in the Yahoo pool, and b) they don't have much value besides Week 7 @ St. Louis and Week 14 vs. Denver.