tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7965585998403674176.post-21265582835158075252008-03-05T09:59:00.000-05:002008-03-05T09:59:00.000-05:002008-03-05T09:59:00.000-05:00Two points, one on-, one off-topic:<BR/><BR/>First, in looking at these numbers, I agree that Sportsbook did not really make any assumptions regarding seed. In fact, I think these odds are simple extensions of their odds to win the title. For example, UCLA and UNC are the prohibitive favorites and are 5:1 and 11:2 to win the title, respectively; those same teams are 11:10 and 6:5 to reach the Final Four.<BR/><BR/>Now take a team like Memphis, whose 2:1 odds surprised you and appear to be a good bet (I agree). Now look at their championship odds, which are a surprising 9:1 (not saying I'd bet that, but considering their record and hype, that's pretty high).<BR/><BR/>Without going down the line, it appears to me that there's a simple correlation between the odds to win the championship and the odds to reach the Final Four. Simply, it looks like they are dividing the odds of winning the title by a factor between 4.5 and 5.<BR/><BR/>In the end, I think your analysis in projected seedings, and who these teams may face, is where you can find some value in these wagers before the brackets come out.<BR/><BR/>On to my second, quicker point: I'm a Cleveland man, born and bred for 28 years, and a die-hard Tribe fan, even moreso than the Browns. I voted under on their wins, but I think that number's dead-on. To get over 91, I think everything (health, luck, regressions, expectations, etc.) will have to go their way. I'm concerned about Fausto entering his 2nd straight year of a heavy workload, and I'm not as high on the ceiling of Asdrubal as most are. That being said, I'm also highly critical of the entire Tigers pitching staff, and would rather bet on the Indians to win the Division rather than the over on season wins.Robhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05645203437505060534noreply@blogger.com