tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7965585998403674176.post-29393256338543337102008-03-05T11:14:00.000-05:002008-03-05T11:14:00.000-05:002008-03-05T11:14:00.000-05:00I had not noticed the clear correlation between F4 and NC odds. I'm not surprised by it, but that is dumb. The relationship is not linear.<BR/><BR/>Purdue is 100:1 (0.99%) to win it all, and 22:1 (4.35%) to make the F4. That gives them a 22.8% chance of winning it all if they reach the F4.<BR/><BR/>Kansas' numbers are 6:1 (14.29%) and +130 (43.49%); that puts them at 32.36% to win it all if they reach San Antonio. Their ratio is probably about right; Purdue's however, is not even close. If the Boilermakers reach the F4, they will be HUGE underdogs in both games. Giving them a 30% chance of winning each game is probably generous, and even that would only put them at 9% to win it all. Purdue's F4 odds are much, much better than their NC odds. Better teams should have a smaller discrepancy between their F4 and NC odds, since they are *better* and are more likely to win against that level of competition.<BR/><BR/>The Indians to win the division (I got it at +220) is definitely better than their win total. I think the 91 number is pretty much dead on also, but I went with the over. I find myself to be more optimistic than most Cleveland fans, which is almost definitely caused by my relatively young age.Vegas Watchhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02353166004125421683noreply@blogger.com