tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7965585998403674176.post-68476479185955995322008-04-24T21:16:00.000-04:002008-04-24T21:16:00.000-04:002008-04-24T21:16:00.000-04:00Interesting article. <BR/><BR/>It would be a nightmare to compile all of the necessary data, but I wonder if weighting the pythagorean projections based upon the schedule a given team has already played versus the schedule a given team has yet to play would provide more accurate predictions. <BR/><BR/>For instance, the Twins have played the Royals 6 times thus far. In those games, they scored a total of 19 runs and allowed 15. The pythagorean expectation would project them to win about 62% of their remaining 12 games against the Royals. Given that they have 140 games left, you could give .62 a weight of 12/140. Rinse and repeat for the rest of the teams, applying the overall pythagorean projection towards any teams that they haven't played. Then, sum up the respective pythagorean shares to determine a weighted pythagorean expectation. <BR/><BR/>Then again, that's a lot of work. In any case, great article.ChuckDickenshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11709571849561444523noreply@blogger.com