tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7965585998403674176.post-83734437944228787222008-04-22T21:41:00.000-04:002008-04-22T21:41:00.000-04:002008-04-22T21:41:00.000-04:00You should be using actual record, not pythad. If you are trying to predict what the actual record of the team is going to be at the end of the season at this stage, just take their actual record and pro-rate the rest of the season using whatever projection system you want. Pythag tells us how many games the team should have won up until this point, but frankly, we don't care how many games the team should have won since we KNOW how many games the team has won. Whether a team is 21-1 by winning all 1 run games or 21-1 by blowing out their opponents, I don't care. I know the team won 21 games. I don't need to, nor should I correct for that. The proration of the projection system over the next 140 games is going to take care of that regression to the mean in luck.Ryanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10206573228455542540noreply@blogger.com