tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7965585998403674176.post-87773083344668585772008-04-23T13:51:00.000-04:002008-04-23T13:51:00.000-04:002008-04-23T13:51:00.000-04:00"That's a concern of mine, but it's not the only one. You are also using Pythag based on actual RS/RA, rather than AEQR/AEQRA (expected RS/RA via the batting lines produced, adjusted by SOS)."<BR/><BR/>I wanted to use that, but figured I wouldn't be able to find it for the past data.<BR/><BR/>What I did is essentially the same thing as combining Davenport's original Playoff Odds, and his PECOTA Playoff odds. For example, the original odds have the Diamondbacks winning 95.4 games, and PECOTA has them winning 90.9 games. My prediction of 93.3 comes down right in between- it's higher than (90.9+(95.4-90.9)*.1) because he is regressing to .500 to get that 95.4 number; if he was using straight Pythag or straight AEQR/AEQRA, I'd assume they would be expected to win more than 95.4 games at this point.Vegas Watchhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02353166004125421683noreply@blogger.com