tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7965585998403674176.post8044164704096985660..comments2008-03-24T16:30:13.216-04:00Vegas Watchhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02353166004125421683vegaswatch@gmail.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7965585998403674176.post-35955254892596099802008-03-11T20:14:03.589-04:002008-03-11T20:14:03.589-04:00Okay, I added at note at the bottom:<BR/><BR/>"Because of the weird distribution of wins (each year, one team wins six, one wins five, two win four, four win three, and so on), 65% of teams are below their expected wins. In our example, 88% of the teams in the first table (bad road teams) won less games than expected, while for the second table (good road teams) only 47% won less than expected. This confirms what is displayed in the average (road success is a better indicator than home games), but it's important to have a relevant baseline."<BR/><BR/>Thanks, Kevin.Vegas Watchhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02353166004125421683noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7965585998403674176.post-41513253334221600482008-03-11T19:58:02.209-04:002008-03-11T19:58:02.209-04:00Right. The distribution is all kinds of weird. That was more of an anecdotal observation- that they're 0.5 wins below the average is more meaningful.<BR/><BR/>I was considering making the maximum wins 4, and running the regression that way. Maybe I'll do that now.Vegas Watchhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02353166004125421683noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7965585998403674176.post-23795960701663185632008-03-11T19:35:00.000-04:002008-03-11T19:35:00.000-04:00You should be careful about 15 of 17 finished below - the distribution of wins around the mean wins isn't going to be even, partly because its so rare to have 4 wins (2 teams out of 65) 5 wins (1 team out of 65) or 6 wins (1 team). A lot of teams would finish below the mean because I'm pretty sure the majority of data points are below the mean seed performance.Kevinhttp://kburke.org/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7965585998403674176.post-28692973141329238232008-03-11T18:20:00.000-04:002008-03-11T18:20:00.000-04:00OopsDavidhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13265280700529267139noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7965585998403674176.post-91020691216375604512008-03-11T18:12:00.000-04:002008-03-11T18:12:00.000-04:00That was one of the worst seedings of all time. <BR/><BR/>A&M closed as a favorite in that game and rightfully so.moneylinehttp://www.themoneylinejournal.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7965585998403674176.post-17082225871266732982008-03-11T17:29:18.878-04:002008-03-11T17:29:18.878-04:00That's two years ago; they were a 9 seed in the BE tourney (on the bubble at that point, I believe), won those four games by a total of seven points (McNamara went absolutely nuts), and got a 5. McNamara was hurt, and they lost to Texas A&M in the first round.Vegas Watchhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02353166004125421683noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7965585998403674176.post-68255454885683848092008-03-11T17:23:00.000-04:002008-03-11T17:23:00.000-04:00Nice. I wanted to do something along those lines, but hadn't really thought of a plan yet. Thanks for takin' care of it for me.<BR/><BR/>One thing that jumped out at me - WTF was Syracuse doing with a 5 seed last year?Davidhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13265280700529267139noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7965585998403674176.post-31436543333775680652008-03-11T16:50:00.001-04:002008-03-11T16:50:00.001-04:00If you really want to be thorough, you should do a hypothesis test for H0: beta(away)= -0.0237. Then, you could absolutely say whether a team's road performance is clearly a better indicator. I assume you already know how to do this, but if not, shoot me a PM over at RMMB.am19psuhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18441351103470970374noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7965585998403674176.post-28722667910123104592008-03-11T16:50:00.000-04:002008-03-11T16:50:00.000-04:00Great Article!Ari Baum-Cohenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01477623016701099737noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7965585998403674176.post-22415130635843855502008-03-11T16:18:00.000-04:002008-03-11T16:18:00.000-04:00/places 'Wisconsin to be in the final four' betFastnesshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04250511345868226554noreply@blogger.com