Comments on Vegas Watch: Breaking Down The Wagerline Numbers: June

Maybe look at the final adjusted line vs expected ...

2008-07-09T12:13:00.343-04:00

Maybe look at the final adjusted line vs expected winning % derived from some form of pythagorean winning % analysis?

I don't understand how this helps with betting on ...

2008-07-09T11:31:47.802-04:00

I don't understand how this helps with betting on future games. You're basically saying the lines are correct rather than looking at which pitchers and teams the lines themselves are overvaluing or undervaluing.

Because they also happen to dislike small sample s...

2008-07-09T00:19:12.417-04:00

Because they also happen to dislike small sample size.

Hate is a strong word, though.

Also, why do the types that usually love run diffe...

2008-07-09T00:17:26.672-04:00

Also, why do the types that usually love run differential still hate the White Sox this year?

He owes you big time, so this is a valid criticism...

2008-07-09T00:16:40.526-04:00

He owes you big time, so this is a valid criticism. Unless it's a joke, but I'm cynical about such things.

I think if you look at Floyd's game log you can see his strikeout rate has increased as the season went on. Since May 28th, he has 48K to 13BB in 44.2 innings. Looking at last year as well, it looks like HRs are his problem not strikeouts.

Wow, this is the most incredibly boring post ever....

2008-07-08T20:20:02.341-04:00

Wow, this is the most incredibly boring post ever. Go suck off Bill James.