tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7965585998403674176.post8858095487138115416..comments2007-10-03T14:14:58.388-04:00Vegas Watchhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02353166004125421683VegasWatch@gmail.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7965585998403674176.post-16561095212090740692007-10-03T14:08:00.000-04:002007-10-03T14:08:00.000-04:002007-10-03T14:08:00.000-04:00The Red Sox aren't even likely to be more than a 60% favorite to win any one game, how could they then be over a 61% favorite to win the series. LV Hilton has them with a 60% win probability for game #1, which will likely come down in game 2, 3 and 4. <A HREF="http://DodgerSims.blogspot.com/" REL="nofollow"><B>My Simulator</B></A> has them with a much more modest win expectancy. vr, XeiXeifrankhttp://dodgersims.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7965585998403674176.post-86591238853136448902007-10-03T13:30:00.000-04:002007-10-03T13:30:00.000-04:002007-10-03T13:30:00.000-04:00My first comment references the first table of probabilities, from actual Vegas lines, not Mr. VegasWatch's revised table, fyi.Skyhttp://greenmen.org/skyking162noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7965585998403674176.post-78186884247128695692007-10-03T12:53:00.000-04:002007-10-03T12:53:00.000-04:002007-10-03T12:53:00.000-04:00Absolutely correct. Fixed that, thanks.Vegas Watchhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02353166004125421683noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7965585998403674176.post-56573431009959357482007-10-03T11:55:00.000-04:002007-10-03T11:55:00.000-04:002007-10-03T11:55:00.000-04:00"Yankees are the only favorites out of the road teams." The Cubs are a road team also. Arizona has home field advantage.Adamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12189873212187150522noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7965585998403674176.post-28934547751992909332007-10-03T10:36:00.000-04:002007-10-03T10:36:00.000-04:002007-10-03T10:36:00.000-04:00BTW Sky, I really like how that was phrased; they "automatically get a team", like MLB is doing them a favor by letting them participate. They really are.Vegas Watchhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02353166004125421683noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7965585998403674176.post-46025226591525345102007-10-03T10:32:00.000-04:002007-10-03T10:32:00.000-04:002007-10-03T10:32:00.000-04:00You scared me for a second there, cubbie, but yes it does.<BR/><BR/>On the bottom table, AL is 56.9%, NL is 43.1%.Vegas Watchhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02353166004125421683noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7965585998403674176.post-58212165048939236552007-10-03T10:26:00.000-04:002007-10-03T10:26:00.000-04:002007-10-03T10:26:00.000-04:00AL adds up to 43% though, it does not add up to a full 100%$Cubbie denhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15308580338311071843noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7965585998403674176.post-80340790541426133762007-10-03T09:10:00.000-04:002007-10-03T09:10:00.000-04:002007-10-03T09:10:00.000-04:00The NL teams' probabilities add up to about 35%. Given that the NL automatically gets a team in the World Series, that's REALLY low.<BR/><BR/>I'd put my money on Colorado and Cleveland.Skyhttp://greenmen.org/skyking162noreply@blogger.com