tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7965585998403674176.post-13195595794177191402008-05-12T20:04:00.010-04:002008-05-12T21:16:23.339-04:002008-05-12T21:16:23.339-04:00These are from <a href="http://affiliates.commissionaccount.com/processing/clickthrgh.asp?btag=a_6420b_115">Sportsbook</a>. They are the first to post them, I believe.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_Xtn5bp8dZEg/SCjiU_ONt-I/AAAAAAAABbg/PcBEnAFBtjU/s1600-h/nflwintotals1.bmp"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer;" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_Xtn5bp8dZEg/SCjiU_ONt-I/AAAAAAAABbg/PcBEnAFBtjU/s400/nflwintotals1.bmp" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5199654619995551714" border="0" /></a><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_Xtn5bp8dZEg/SCjiyvONt_I/AAAAAAAABbo/8zsp9VKoLz4/s1600-h/nflwintotals2.bmp"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer;" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_Xtn5bp8dZEg/SCjiyvONt_I/AAAAAAAABbo/8zsp9VKoLz4/s400/nflwintotals2.bmp" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5199655131096659954" border="0" /></a>8.5 for the defending Super Bowl champs. Nice.<br /><br />Some crazy juice on these, since the season is 1/10 as long as baseball and there's not much room to move them around. Ignoring the juice for now, average wins for each division:<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_Xtn5bp8dZEg/SCjlcPONuAI/AAAAAAAABbw/AeK0ee_Cc0Y/s1600-h/nflwintotals3.bmp"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer;" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_Xtn5bp8dZEg/SCjlcPONuAI/AAAAAAAABbw/AeK0ee_Cc0Y/s400/nflwintotals3.bmp" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5199658043084486658" border="0" /></a>The NFC average is 7.72, while the AFC is 8.03 (the overall average is less than 8; it looks like you have to pay more juice for most of the overs, though). The only NFC team over 8.5 is the Cowboys, at 10.5.<br /><br />Money Line had a <a href="http://www.themoneylinejournal.com/?p=391">post a few weeks</a> back listing various helpful stats from last year. The correlation between last year's wins and this year's O/Us is .887; the correlation between last year's Pythag record and this year's O/Us is .900.<br /><br />Here are the biggest difference between '07 Pythag and '08 O/U:<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_Xtn5bp8dZEg/SCjp3PONuBI/AAAAAAAABb4/iRjpXFvbkD4/s1600-h/nflwintotals4.bmp"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer;" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_Xtn5bp8dZEg/SCjp3PONuBI/AAAAAAAABb4/iRjpXFvbkD4/s400/nflwintotals4.bmp" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5199662904987465746" border="0" /></a>The three teams with the biggest discrepancies between '07 wins and '07 Pythag were the Patriots (16, 13.8), Bills (7, 4.9), and Dolphins (1, 3.8). So, in theory, that would make the NE U, BUF U, and MIA O attractive, although there are obviously many other factors to consider.Vegas Watchhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02353166004125421683VegasWatch@gmail.com14