The Seventh Inning

The Indians blew a 3-1 lead, but I don't think "collapse" is an appropriate term. Personally, I never felt particularly confident. After going up 3-1 they immediately had to face Beckett, which is never pleasant. Then it was back to Boston, and although I thought Carmona had the edge over Schilling in Game Six, I knew we were dealing with a 23-year old who had thrown way more innings than ever before, and his performance was extremely unpredictable. I never got the feeling that it was within reach; the Indians never had a lead in any of the final three games, and the latest the game was tied was the third inning (in Game 5).

Having said that, the Indians certainly had their chances. The seventh inning on Sunday night featured a ridiculous sequence of momentum swings, which I have tried to portray in the graph below. The y-axis is Boston's % chance to win the game throughout the inning, and I'll explain what each point represents below.


1. At the beginning of the seventh, Boston's win expectancy (or WE, which can be approximated here) was 73%.

2. Jhonny Peralta led off the inning with a fly out to right, which was neither controversial or interesting. Boston up to 76%.

3. Kenny Lofton then popped one up to short left, and Julio Lugo simply dropped it. The red dot represents what Boston's WE would've been if he had caught it; 80%. In reality, it was down to 68%, as the Indians had the tying run on second with one out.

4. Franklin Gutierrez followed with a sharp single right over the third base bag. As you may remember, third base coach Joel Skinner held Lofton at third, even though it seems like he would have scored easily. If Lofton scores there, Boston's WE drops to 51%. Even with Lofton at third, the Indians were in good shape, as Boston's WE had decreased to 60%.

5. On the next pitch, Casey Blake grounds into a 5-4-3 double play, and just like that the rally has ended, and Boston is up to 82%. So, in the span of less than a minute, a questionable decision by the third base coach and a Casey Blake ground ball caused the Indians' chances of winning the AL Pennant decrease from 49% to 18%. This was fun.

6. But Blake wasn't done, as he botched an easy grounder off the bat of Jacoby Ellsbury to start the bottom of the inning. If Blake makes that play the Indians have a 20% chance of winning. When he didn't, Boston's % increases to 90%. So, in the span of two batters, Casey Blake has personally cost the Indians nearly 1/3 of the Pennant.

7. The only interesting thing about Lugo bunting Ellsbury over to third was that it actually decreased Boston's chance of winning, from 90% to 89%.

8. Finally, Betancourt leaves a fastball up, and Dustin Pedroia hammers it over the monster, increasing Boston's lead to three, and their WE to 95%.

From the timestamps in the live-blog, Skinner's hold of Lofton happened at about 10:52, and Pedroia homered at 11:02. So in ten minutes the Indians went from having the go ahead run on first to being down three with six outs left in their season.

The Indians did rally in the eighth, and got the potential tying run to the plate, as Papelbon came in. Hafner proceeded to strike out on three pitches, and Victor hit what should have been an easy DP ball, reaching when both Pedroia and Lugo struggled with the transfer. That brought Garko up, and he actually hit the ball well, but to the wrong part of the park. Coco made the catch on the run, and the game was essentially over.

Posting is going to be minimal this week, as I have an unbelievable amount of work. But I'll try to get something up tomorrow night, as I understand there's another series to be played.

ALCS Game Seven Live-Blog

7:29 At this point I'm pretty convinced that there is absolutely no logic behind who starts in RF for the Indians. Like Wedge flips a coin or something.

7:39 This live-blog is not going to be unbiased or intelligent. Exhibit A (from LGT):

7:51 Right now there is a countdown on FOX: Game 7 starts in 5:56, 5:55, 5:54....

That's not even close to being true. It's not even 8:00 at the end of that countdown. Why lie?

7:55 The last time the Indians were involved in a Game Seven? Yup. That one.

7:57 Is Beckett available tonight in relief? No, right?

8:03 No, Hermano, I refuse to predict anything. It's hopeless.

8:08 I would just like to point out that Trot Nixon did in fact butcher a ball in right field last night. It just happened to be when the score was like 10-1, so nobody noticed.

Peralta, Garko, Lofton, and Nixon each had defensive miscues last night. Asdrubal and Grady made tremendous plays. This shocks me.

8:22 And I've already been called a "dummy" in the comments for asking a question.

And yes, apparently Beckett could pitch tonight on two days' rest.

8:24 Ball one to Grady.

8:31 Indians go down 1-2-3.

At least Hafner made him throw seven pitches. I guess.

8:34 Sabathia and Beckett are both in the bullpen.

Well, Sabathia is literally in the bullpen, Beckett only figuratively (for now). They're really gonna use Sabathia on two days rest? I suppose that's only if Westbrook gets knocked out real early.

And Pedroia singles to left.

8:35 McCarver just said something about how that wasn't a mistake, except for the location. Then he went on to talk about how surprised he was that Westbrook threw a changeup there.

I have no idea.

2-0 on Youkilis. Off to a flying start.

8:38 I think it's today, OMDQ.

8:40 And Jake Westbrook strikes David Ortiz out with two on in an elimination game.

Again, with the sentences that make no sense. Manny.

8:42 Ramirez hits a DP ball right at Peralta, but it hits the lip and bounces over his head.

1-0 Boston. 2 on, 1 out, Lowell.

8:45 Lowell singles sharply to left. Runner doesn't score because it's Fenway/the ball was smoked.

Carl Willis comes to the mound. Drew up. No comment on this situation.

8:47 Drew hits into a 6-4-3 DP.

Asdrubal Cabrera is absolutely filthy.

1-0 after 1.

8:52 Victor smacks one right at Lowell. He's been crushing the ball lately.

8:54 Garko and Peralta each weakly ground out to Lowell. 6 up, 6 down for Matsuzaka.

8:57 Varitek doubles off the monster to lead off the inning.

8:58 "I don't think this is the time to bunt, you give up an out." -McCarver

As opposed to a normal sacrifice bunt, where you...?

8:59 I don't even know how to describe that hit. It looked like a tennis lob or something.

Runners on the corners for Lugo. Still none out.

9:01 And Lugo rolls into another 6-4-3 DP, this one much easier than last inning. 2-0.

9:02 Pedroia pops out. 7-8-9 coming up for the Tribe, then 2-3-4 for the Sox, which should be interesting.

9:06 That 1-0 pitch wasn't a strike, but he's been calling that.

9:07 I don't care about the trivia question.

It's game seven of the ALCS, do we really need trivia questions to keep people entertained?

Count goes full on Lofton.

9:10 Huge sample sizes on these Gutierrez and Nixon playoff #s. This is really what we should be basing decisions on. Seven at bats.

9:11 After working a full count, Gutierrez pops out to Pedroia. Two out.

9:12 And the 0-1 pitch was clearly a strike.

9:13 A hit! Blake lines one past a diving Lugo into center.

9:14 Since when is Casey Blake alert on the bases? He goes to second on a pitch in the dirt that didn't even really get away from Varitek.

9:18 Sizemore strikes out.

9:21 Youkilis smokes one over third for a double.

It's time for action in the bullpen. Lewis starts warming.

9:24 Ortiz grounds it right to Garko, Youk advances to third. Manny.

9:25 They're gonna intentionally walk Manny to set up the DP and get to Lowell.

9:27 Lowell hits a sac fly to right, Youk tags easily.

What a weird way to end your season. It's just slowly getting out of hand.

9:30 I would let Westbrook come out for the 4th, and bring in Lewis if anyone reaches.

9:33 Beckett is available for two innings tonight.

I don't envision that being necessary.

9:34 Manny's reaction to that hit was hysterical. I guess he thought it was gone?

Hafner doubles off the monster, Victor up. A hit here is kind of vital.

9:36 Victor hits one right back up the middle, Matsuzaka knocks it down and has time to make the play at first. Garko.

9:42 Garko crushes one into center. Hits off the monster- 10 feet to the right and it's a HR. 3-1, runner on second, Peralta up.

9:44 Peralta continues to try to pull pitches that are six inches off the outside corner. 1-2.

9:46 Peralta hits a weak grounder to Lugo, decides not to sprint down to first, and is out by a step.

9:48 If this game gets out of hand with Jake Westbrook on the mound...I don't know. It better not. 2-0 on Varitek. Hopefully Lewis is ready to come in.

9:50 The ground balls are finding holes. Willis is on the phone with the bullpen, at least.

"Bending but hasn't broken."

I'd say allowing three runs in three innings is breaking.

9:52 What a strange play. Ellsbury lines one to first, Garko doesn't catch it but knocks it down, is too far away from the back when he picks it up to get the out at first, but lobs it down to second to get the lead runner.

Jensen Lewis is going to be well rested for 2008, at least.

9:55 Well, that's why you hit and run.

How many balls do they have to hit hard for Wedge to get Westbrook out of there? 15? We're getting close.

9:59 It's called luck. 4-4-3 DP with Lugo going. 3-1 after 4.

Now Wedge brings Westbrook out for the fifth, and the leadoff hitter gets on, rinse, wash, repeat.

10:00 I cannot think of a single reason not to bring Jensen Lewis in for the fifth inning.

10:03 Lofton was safe at second.

10:04 Asdrubal singles up the middle.

If, theoretically, there had been a runner on second, he would have scored easily. There was not.

10:06 "How big was the play to get Kenny at second?" - McCarver

How about the blown call, Tim? Has that had any effect on this game?

Leaving Matsuzaka in to pitch to Grady. Good.

10:08 0-2 on Grady. "Gyroball". Whatever.

10:09 Biggest at-bat of Grady Sizemore's life, by the way. Thought I'd mention that.

10:11 Sizemore skies one into center, Gutierrez scores easily. 3-2, runner on first, two out, Asdrubal up.

10:15 Great pitch by Matsuzaka, completely fool Asdrubal, but apparently it was away.

10:16 Cabrera Ks on the 9th pitch of the AB.

That should be it for both starters. Lewis should come in, as should Okajima.


10:20 And Westbrook is back out for the fifth.

Is this a joke? What are you waiting for, Eric?

10:21 Youkilis strikes out. I'm pretty sure that's the first time Westbrook has retired the leadoff hitter.

10:22 Yup. Two doubles, two singles, and now finally a K.

10:24 Ortiz grounds out. Two dead for Manny.

10:25 Westbrook pulls a "Mastny"? Really?

10:26 Pronk, Victor and Garko coming up against Okajima, I would think.

10:28 Yup, Okajima.

10:29 "This should be the specific definition of a Mastny: when the pitcher has no reason to be out there, yet comes through brilliantly." -My brother

Completely agree, Nick. Well done. Make sure Dad doesn't fall asleep.

10:34 Hafner flies to left, then Victor flies to Drew in right. Two down for Garko.

10:36 Garko hits a slow grounder to Lugo, who gets him easily at first.

The Indians do not have a fast team.

10:39 Westbrook back out for the 6th. But you already knew that.

Betancourt warming up.

10:43 Westbrook has an easy 1-2-3 inning. Eric Wedge is a genius, and Jake Westbrook is filthy.

And Rafael Betancourt better come out for the 7th.

10:45 " this is the inning!" -t-bone

It is? Alright!

10:47 Peralta flies out weakly to right.

Two innings later, Lofton was still safe.

10:48 Julio Lugo drops a pop-up, which should have been Manny's ball in the first place. Lofton gets to second.

Absolutely have to take advantage of that gift. This run has to get home. Somehow.

10:52 Gutierrez singles right over the third base bag, Lofton doesn't score from second. I have no idea if that was a good hold or not, it's impossible to tell.

Corners for...

Damn it.

10:55 Casey Blake hit into a double play. In the biggest at-bat of his life.

Good job buddy.

10:57 Betancourt.

10:59 And Blake makes an error, and Ellsbury gets to second, and Lugo's about to get him to third.

11:00 Good bunt by Lugo. Runner on third, Pedroia. Need a K here.

11:02 And Rafael Betancourt gives up at 2-R HR to Dustin Pedroia. Logical.

Youk grounds out, Ortiz up.

11:04 "Terry Francona and Pedroia play cribbage every day before the game."

WHO CARES

11:05 Sizemore, Asdrubal, Hafner.

Need three runs against Okajima/Papelbon before you make six outs.

11:08 Great bunt by Grady, he beats everybody to first. Papelbon?

11:11 Asdubal smacks a single up the middle.

11:12 They're bringing in Papelbon. I don't really get how you pull Okajima now. Seems like either you pull him after the Grady AB, or you let him pitch to Hafner. To take him up with the lefty Hafner coming up is kind of odd.

But it is Papelbon, I guess. Hafner vs Papelbon, this should be fun. Or actually whatever the opposite of fun is.

11:16 " Okajima vs. LHB: .236 BA
Papelbon vs. LHB: .104 BA" - OMDQ

Wow, good call. Thanks for that.

11:17 And on cue, Hafner Ks on three pitches.

Now Victor. This is their shot.

11:17 And Pedroia and Lugo fail to turn one of the easiest DPs you'll ever come across, against one of the slowest guys in the league.

Corners for Garko, 2 out.

11:20 I don't think Garko was looking for the slider on that 1-1 pitch. Just a guess.

11:21 Garko hits one fairly deep, but Ellsbury makes the catch on the right before he reaches the track.

11:24 Manny pops out to Cabrera.

I still can't believe Pedroia homered off Betancourt.

11:27 Lowell doubles.

11:30 Drew ropes on into center, Lowell scores. 6-2.

11:31 "All of the sudden, J.D. Drew is locked in."

He was 0/3 before that, stranding four runners. Locked in.

11:33 "How's that for crack analysis, I have no idea." -McCarver

Significantly better than usual.

11:35 Varitek pops one behind third, Peralta and Blake run into each other, nobody says anything, the ball bounces into the seats for a double. 2nd and 3rd, 1 out for Ellsbury.

11:37 IBB for Ellsbury, now Lugo.

11:42 Lugo Ks. Two down for Pedroia, who ropes one into left-center, clearing the bases.

9-2.

11:47 Lewis is in now. Doesn't matter. Youkilis absolutely creams one off the Coke bottle in left.

11-2.

11:49 Nine runs, three outs.

They've got this.

11:51 Ellsbury now in left, Coco in center.

Just trying to be thorough.

11:54 Peralta gets the rally started with a single to left.

11:55 Ellsbury makes a nice catch in left on Lofton's liner. Two outs to go.

11:56 Gutierrez flies out to center, Coco is there to make the catch.

11:57 Tremendous running catch by Coco in center. That's it.

Congratulations to the Boston Red Sox, the best team in the AL all year, and 2007 American League Champions.

12:01 That's it for me. Post up whenever I see a WS line. Gonna be -230, or something absurd like that.

ALCS Primer: Game 7

Listening to ESPN Radio last night, I heard one of the hosts (Jeff Rickard?) say that there's no way Boston loses Game Seven. I think I agree with this. The way he's thrown over his last three starts, the Indians really have no shot at beating Josh Beckett. Westbrook would have to pitch the game of his life, and I just don't see that happening. This series is over.

Oh, wait, Beckett isn't pitching? Francona didn't pitch him on three days' rest, saved him for G5, and so Daisuke Matsuzaka is pitching tonight? Well, that certainly changes things.

The Red Sox were 17-15 in games started by Matsuzaka during the regular season, and are 1-1 in the playoffs. After winning 8 of Matsuzka's first 10 starts, the Sox are 10-14 over his last 24.

The only point I'm trying to make is that saying the Indians don't have a chance is ridiculous. The Red Sox are favored, and rightfully so. They have "momentum" on their side, are playing at home, and have a stronger offense. But with each of these teams' seasons coming down to tonight, anyone who says they know what the result will be is lying.

Game 7 Lineups
Varitek, Youkilis, Pedroia, Lugo, Lowell, Manny, Ellsbury (why not?), Drew, Ortiz

Victor, Garko, Asdrubal, Peralta, Blake, Kenny, Grady, Trot.

I would say these are educated guesses, but that's probably giving myself too much credit at this point.

Game 7 Starters
Matsuzaka really struggled in Game 3, getting knocked out in the 5th. He allowed four runs (and it could have been worse; Timlin stranded both runners he inherited) on six hits, walking two and striking out six. The two walks are a bit deceiving, as he was behind in the count the whole night, throwing just 59 of his 101 pitches for strikes.

Westbrook was effective in Game 3, if not dominant. He struck out just two over 6.2 innings, while allowing seven hits and walking three. But he worked out of trouble, inducing Ortiz, Crisp, and Ramirez to hit into double plays in the first, second, and sixth, respectively.

Part of this was luck, but part is by design- Westbrook's career GB rate is 59.6%. He's a sinkerballer who pitches to contact, and his G3 performance was somewhat typical. Tonight, the Sox are inevitably going to have their fair share of baserunners; even more so than usual, the outcome of the game hinges on what they'll do in those situations.

Game 7 Bullpens
The Red Sox only used Gagne and Lopez last night. Okajima has as much rest as the two starters- he hasn't pitched since Game 3, six days ago. Papelbon went an inning in Game 5; I would think he'll be able to go two tonight, although it's unclear how comfortable Francona is with doing that.

Rafael Betancourt and Jensen Lewis could play huge roles in this game. Amazingly, these two are pretty obviously the Indians' best relievers at this point. Betancourt last pitched in Game 5, Lewis in Game 4. Each is very capable of going two innings. It seems somewhat unreasonable to expect Westbrook to pitch in to the seventh again. I think Wedge will (should?) be happy if Westbrook pitches five innings and keeps the game close. After that, there's no reason to hold back- go right to Lewis. If he gets through the sixth, bringing him back out for the seventh, but have Betancourt ready. And yes, I expect to send a good deal of the game tonight yelling at the TV about Wedge's bullpen managment.

Live blog will be up a little later than usual, probably around 7:45ET. I expect it to be a complete mess, regardless of the outcome of the game.

ALCS Game Six Live-Blog

6:38 So Ellsbury is starting in place of Coco, and Trot is starting in right for the Tribe (Yahoo!).

I am looking forward to the Indians throwing their season away because Trot Nixon cannot make a routine play in right field.

6:55 Posnanski rants about the Indians, Red Sox, and clutch hitting.

7:11 The rest of the lineups:

7:37 The odds at Matchbook the Red Sox a 54.8% chance of winning.

I think that's somewhat insane, by the way.

8:03 "Fenway Park, the very last place the Indians expected to be after taking a 3-1 series lead."

Wow. Dramatic. And wrong.

8:07 Re: Intersquad games, Karros (to Tulowitzki): "Have you been able to keep up that level of intensity?"

...no?

8:13 Kennedy & Karros...worse than Buck & McCarver? They might be.

8:17 I like how they're talking about how Fausto wasn't good in G2, but only talking about what Schilling did four years ago. Schilling was awful in G2 as well.

8:25 Grady just misses a cheap Pesky pole HR. Was it fair? I have no idea.

8:28 I think it was foul, then they show that angles thats actually right down the line.

Grady grounds out to Lugo.

The "Keys to the Game" are so useless.

At least Schilling's 88-89mph FBs don't provoke that stupid flame.

8:29 I am very interested in how well Curt Schilling pitched at home in the playoffs in 1993. This is relevant and helpful information.

8:31 Schilling fires one in at 92(!), right on the outside corner to get Hafner swinging.

8:34 Pedroia reaches on a well placed grounder. Tremendous effort by Asdrubal, but that's an impossible play. Good start for Fausto, though.

8:38 He should have been safe at second regardless. Peralta is so slow.

Two on for Papi.

8:42 Fausto walks Ortiz on the 3-2. It's entirely possible that all six of those pitches were outside. He's gotta stop pitching like that to Ortiz & Manny.

8:46 "How in the world can he continue to lay off these pitches just off the plate???" -McCarver

That 1-2 pitch was not even remotely close. At all.

8:48 Didn't lay off that one, did he, Tim?

Manny Ks on a filthy sinker down and in.

8:48 Lowell pops out to right, shallow enough that they won't run on even Trot Nixon.

8:51 Ugh.

4-0.

8:52 That was just an awful pitch. Middle of the plate, not low, didn't move.

I mean, it would have to be an awful pitch for JD Drew to hit it 400 feet, right?

8:59 Fausto threw 36 pitches, 19 strikes, almost exactly the ratio he was at in G2.

He was wild, and that pitch to Drew was awful. Looked good to the first two batters, at least.

9:01 Victor crushes one to right, and this one's fair.

4-1. Excuse me if I'm not very enthusiastic.

9:02 NSchaef, regarding your comment at 9:00: Yes.

9:04 McCarver, on Peralta: "Makes all the plays at shortstop."

Right.

9:04 OMDQ, jogging slowly around the bases is a lot different than standing at home plate with your hands raised.

I'm not saying you should do it. But they're not comparable.

4-1 after 2.

9:12 Pedroia doubles off the bottom of the monster, on a ball that Lofton probably should have caught.

Corner outfield defense is not a strength for the Tribe with this lineup.

9:15 Youkilis' slow grounder hits the lip of the grass, and Peralta doesn't have a play anywhere.

Ortiz hits into a huge DP, hitting one right at Peralta, who was playing up the middle. But I'm not done complaining about the Youkilis hit, one second.

9:16 So on the Youkilis play, Pedroia was going on a ground ball hit in front of him. This is not what you are supposed to do. In fact, it is the exact opposite.

Because the ball hit the lip, he ended up being safe at third. McCarver praised Pedroia for his "excellent" baserunning. I just don't understand.

9:19 "Eric Wedge was hoping for a little Trot Nixon, Fenway Park October magic."

I sincerely hope that wasn't his logic behind the decision.

Nixon singles to right, just out of the reach of Pedroia.

"Solo shot by Grady Sizemore." -Rosenthal

That's what he just said, right?

9:22 Blake weakly singles into left. The Indians desperately need to get a couple back here. Grady up.

9:23 " I love Peralta at short. He's fast, has active hands, and is accurate." -Hermano

Well played.

Sizemore weakly lofts one into right, Drew makes the catch. Now Asdrubal.

9:25 Cabrera hits it a little harder than Sizemore, but Drew makes the catch in front of the track.

Hafner has struck out in 7 of 9 ABs, and one of the other two was that DP with runners on first and third in the first inning of G5.

That was a good pitch to hit, but he fouls it off.

9:29 And Hafner rolls over weakly to Youkilis. Not good.

9:36 Back-to-back walks to lead off the 3rd. And J.D. Drew is up again. He'll probably crush one out to RF.

9:37 Why do they wait until now to bring up that Sabathia and Carmona have thrown a lot more innings than ever before? I was aware of this, obviously, but you couldn't have informed people of this prior to the game? Prior to G5? This wasn't relevant then?

Drew singles up the middle, Manny scores, and that's gonna be it for Carmona. Perez is coming in, I believe. In the third inning.

9:40 It's 5-1 in the bottom of the third, Paul. The game is on FOX.

If you're not watching the game you should probably go to MLB.com and pull up Gameday or something.

9:44 How is this a profile of Perez? This is his third appearance, and the Indians' bullpen has been good? How is this helpful in any way?

9:45 Ellsbury singles to left, 6-1.

9:47 Lugo smacks one over the third base bag. 8-1.

The Indians are getting beat by J.D. Drew and Julio Lugo. They have combined for seven RBIs. There's one out on the third.

9:53 10-1.

Live-blog is on life support right now.

9:58 Nice throw, Ryan. Well done.

10:04 I'm reading this article about Gawker, which owns Deadspin.

Oh, and 10-1 after 3. Laffey is in now, apparently. And Victor gets another hit. Rally time.

10:20 Laffey puts them down 1-2-3 in the fourth.

There's no real reason to be refreshing this right now. Come back if it gets to 10-5, or tomorrow at 8:30, whichever comes first.

10:32 At least Asdrubal and Grady can still play defense.

11:34 12-2 Boston, final. Gagne "closed it out".

Well at least there's a Game Seven now- those are fun, aren't they? Westbrook vs. Matsuzaka tomorrow night, . Some actual analysis of the game tomorrow (which is something this live-blog sorely lacked, sorry), as well as one final live-blog.

ALCS Primer: Game 6

Game 6 Lineups

Quickly, because this section is clearly useless:

Victor, Garko, Asdrubal, Peralta, Blake, Kenny, Grady, Gutierrez, Hafner.

Varitek, Youk, Pedroia, Lugo, Lowell, Manny, Coco, Drew, Ortiz

Game 6 Starters
In 17 career postseason starts, Curt Schilling has a 2.23 ERA, with 111 Ks in 121 innings. That's pretty impressive, but I'm not sure it's all that relevant. In his career, Schilling has averaged 8.6 K/9, but this year he was down to 6.0. He's a completely different pitcher than he was in 2001, when he pitched 48.1 innings in October (and November, actually), striking out 56 and allowing just six earned runs (1.18 ERA). I'm not saying he's bad, or won't pitch well. I just don't think what he did in the playoffs six years ago plays much of a factor here.

In two playoff starts this year, Schilling has a 3.86 ERA, with 7 Ks and only 1 BB in 11.2 IP. He pitched very well against the Angels offense in the ALDS (7IP, 6H, 0R, 1BB, 4K, although the Angels didn't have Kotchman or Matthews Jr.), but struggled in G2 of the ALCS (4.2 IP, 9H, 5ER, 0BB, 3K, 2HR).

Carmona has struck out five in each of his two playoff starts. And that's where the similarities end. He was brilliant against the Yankees (9 IP, 3H, 1ER, 2BB, 5K; nothing memorable happened in that game), but really struggled in G2 against the Sox (4IP, 4H, 4ER, 5BB, 5K, 100 pitches, 51 strikes).

Fausto is now up to 228 innings this year. He only threw 102.1 innings last year, although he pitched 163 innings in '04, and 173.2 innings in '05. So he's 54.1 innings above his previous career high, and has thrown 125.1 more innings than he did in '06. I would be surprised if he throws only 51% strikes again tonight, but what the Indians get out of him is really anyone's guess.

Game 6 Relievers
Pretty much everybody should be well rested after the off day yesterday. Mastny threw 29 pitches in G5, which may effect him, although he shouldn't be pitching in close games regardless. Papelbon threw 22 pitches on Friday, Betancourt 11, Perez 13. I would think Betancourt would be available for two innings tonight if needed (Wedge may have lost faith in Perez, although he really didn't pitch that poorly in G5- a walk, a fly out, an error, and a bunt).

This may come as a shock, but if Boston wins tonight, Game 7 will be tomorrow. That's right, they would play baseball two days in a row. Insane. So the bullpen management of the game tonight may be somewhat interesting, with the possibility of another elimination game tomorrow.

Day 17: Updated Vegas Percentages

So, for the first time (ever?), the Rockies are the favorites to win the World Series. What a strange sentence.

It will be interesting to see what these numbers look like if the Red Sox win on Saturday. My guess would be the Rockies' % decreases a little more (maybe to 36%), the Red Sox jump up to about 36%, and the Indians fall down to 28%.

Another off day today. So they've now played three games in the last six days. This is not how baseball is supposed to be played. I understand the days off for travel. But having an off day between G4 & G5 was ridiculous.

The Indians are +120 for G6, giving them a 44.6% chance of winning. With Carmona going up against Schilling, that seems pretty low to me. Do Schilling's performances in October when he was 34 ('01) and 37 ('04) really have much to do with how well he pitches in October when he's 40?

ALCS Game Five Live-Blog

6:59 Lineups:
Of course Gutierrez is starting. First pitch at 8:21.

8:20 Finally here.

8:25 Youkilis crushes a ball out to left, and we are off to an excellent start.

That was not an "inside" fastball. That was an atrocious pitch.

8:29 How about you just play a single into a double, Kenny. Great.

8:30 And Gutierrez guns Ramirez at the plate, on a play that was not particularly close.

8:36 After a Sizemore leadoff double (which I missed), Asdrubal lines one to right, almost too hard, as Sizemore has to stop at third.

Pronk up.

8:39 Hafner bounces into a 6-6-3 DP, Sizemore scores. Well that rally was short lived.

8:40 Victor singles. Even if they only get one run, this is much more promising than G1's first inning, where Beckett struck out the side.

Oh and Garko is not at .444 with two out in the series. Or the playoffs. Or something. Whatever.

8:43 Garko strikes out on another nasty curveball. 1-1 after 1.

8:47 I keep getting IMs from "MLB", first telling me to watch the game, and now telling me that it's 1-1 after 1.

I just blocked "MLB".

8:49 That pitch was inside. That's OK. The umps are basically just guessing, at this point.

8:50 People keep coming to this site from here.

And the 2-2 was clearly strike. What a joke the umpiring has been the whole postseason. C.C. hits Varitek with the 3-2.

8:52 Coco Crisp only has 3 RBIs in his last 14 games? That completely changes my opinion of him as a hitter.

Coco goes down looking on 97 at the knees, right over the heart of the plate.

8:55 Lugo pops out harmlessly. 33 pitches for CC through 2. But I'm not all that worried about pitch counts, with all the off days they can use the bullpen early if need be.

8:59 Peralta looks real comfortable up there against Beckett's curve.

9:00 Apparently this was unclear, but that last comment was very much sarcastic. Peralta goes down on, well, a curve.

9:05 Apparently, Schaefer is live-blogging in the comments.

9:06 Showing Gutierrez take his lead twice on the same screen is really unnecessary.

9:07 "And the top of the order is coming up for Boston....(four second pause) in the third."

No idea what inning it is.

9:10 After the first two innings, this much is clear- the umpires and announcers are going to be in peak form all night.

9:14 Pedroia lines the eighth pitch (and sixth straight FB) of the AB into right for a leadoff single.

9:16 "The Yankees' shift has lost his rudder.""The Yankees' ship has lost its rudder."

Right.

9:16 Two of the least athletic people in baseball, C.C. Sabathia and Jhonny Peralta, manage to somehow turn at 1-6-3 DP.

9:20 This Manny montage is absurd. I think I actually dislike him at this point.

9:21 That was a home run. Do the right thing, umps. Continue to screw this up.

9:23 All aspects of the current situation are completely absurd.

9:25 "David Ortiz scores from first, and Manny ends up at first."

That may have been the most insightful thing Tim McCarver has ever said.

9:26 Well, that was good, I guess?

2-1 Sox, mid 3.

9:29 Okay, somewhat back to normalcy. Top of the lineup for the Tribe, Sizemore goes down swinging.

9:31 STOP TALKING ABOUT THIS STUPID QUOTE.

9:32 Travis Hafner "produced a run".

Yes, that is exactly how I'd describe his last AB. Very "productive".

9:33 95mph FB, 96mph FB, 79mph completely unhittable CB.

Decent sequence to Hafner, I'd say.

9:36 Man, I'm excited about their chat with Carl Willis. I bet he's going to tell me a bunch of really insightful stuff that wasn't painfully obvious already.

Kielty singles to right. Beckett looks great, C.C. looks...OK, I guess.

9:38 Don't worry about it, I only need to see the game in 1/4 of the screen. Definitely worth it, to watch Carl Willis talk.

9:39 Varitek singles to left, on a ball that *might* have been a DP if Asdrubal was playing short.

9:41 Coco fails in his attempt to bunt, then Francona lets him swing away with two strikes, and he promptly strikes out.

I would quote the number of times McCarver has screwed up in the last fifteen seconds, but I just don't have time.

And Lugo hits into a DP. Alright! Victor-Garko-Peralta coming up.

9:44 "From the Mrs., on McCarver: "Dude, why do you even bother opening your mouth?"" -Brian

9:47 They're not touching Beckett right now. Two out, Peralta up.

9:49 48 pitches for Beckett through four. Doubt we'll be seeing anyone except him and Papelbon tonight, if the Sox hold this lead.

9:50 For the record, hitting the yellow line is *not* a home run.

9:57 "And they're not gonna walk him."

This is surprising? With a 3-2 count? Of course they're not gonna walk him.

9:59 Well, they did walk him, but quite unintentionally. Two on, two out for Lowell.

10:02 Lowell lines one down the LF line, foul by inches. That was almost really bad. Down 3 against Beckett is a bad place to be.

10:03 Sabathia hits Lowell with a FB that glances off his jersey on the 1-2 pitch.

10:06 Good, I thought he was gonna walk him there. Sabathia escapes. 87 pitches after five; hopefully they can get him through one more and then turn it over to Lewis.

10:10 Don't drop the bat, Kenny. Don't be Manny.

And he pops out the 3-1 pitch.

Why the hell are the benches clearing?

10:12 Okay, it might be because Kenny and Beckett were yelling at each other about Kenny dropping his after the 3-0 strike. But still, does everybody really need to rush onto the field because of this?

That 1-1 pitch was...a ball?

10:15 Yeah, Josh Beckett is a lot better than Franklin Gutierrez. That 3-2 pitch was filthy, 97 tailing back over the plate.

He does look a little wild this inning, however. Maybe a run in the 6th with the top of the order?

10:18 Gave up on this inning too soon, apparently. Runners on the corners, two down for Asdrubal, who had looked good tonight (as Joe Buck helpfully points out).

10:19 Personally, I have actually never noticed the "look in the eyes of Asdrubal Cabrera".

10:20 Well, Asdrubal never really had a chance, as he goes down on three pitches. 67 pitches, 46 strikes, 7 Ks for Beckett thru 5.

10:27 CC up to 102 pitches. Hopefully they can just get one more out from him, and then turn it over to the 'pen.

10:28 Sabathia looked good this inning, but it's true that Julio Lugo was involved.

Hafner-Victor-Garko coming up for the Indians. This would be the time to push a couple across.

10:33 Beckett's curveball is frustrating to root against. Hafner is the eighth strikeout victim of the night.

10:39 Well, it's looking like it'll be Beckett for 8, and then Papelbon for the ninth. The Indians still have a shot, but they really have to hold it at 2-1. C.C. back out fore the 7th; is someone ready in the pen?

Pedroia leads off the 7th with a double. I did not have time to question bringing CC back out (which seems completely unnecessary), but I did.

10:42 Betancourt and Mastny warming. Mastny? Where's Lewis?

10:43 Grady definitely misjudged that ball; he wasn't sprinting to the ball, it looked like he was going to have it easily.

3-1. Ortiz-Ramirez-Lowell up. But good job keeping CC in to start this inning with 102 pitches. Really.

10:49 Ortiz flies one to right and Kenny...catches it with his wrist, I guess. Youkilis scores easily from third. 4-1.

But that's fine. Beckett has looked terrible all night, it'll be easily to get a couple off him. And who's their closer? I don't even know.

10:52 Betancourt should just stand there with his hands up after that K of Manny.

10:59 Peralta grounds out to Lowell to lead off the 7th.

Sorry, I'm not terribly enthusiastic at this point, I just don't see this ending well. Hopefully I'm proven wrong.

11:03 Well, maybe we've found something Josh Beckett isn't good at. He lets an easy comebacker go right between his legs. One on, one out, for Gutierrez.

This would all be very exciting if it was 2-1. Thanks, Mr. Wedge.

11:05 The umpiring continues to be a joke. 2-1 to Gutierrez was clearly a strike.

But it doesn't matter, as he has no interest in on getting on base, and weakly flies out to center.

I like how they actually have this stat: "Manny Ramirez, 390' RBI Single in 3rd".

11:08 Blake strikes out. The Indians' 5-9 hitters are now 1/14 with 6 Ks and a walk. Beckett up to 96 pitches; they probably bring him out for the 8th but have somebody ready.

11:13 Eric Wedge apparently remembered that Rafael Perez is in his bullpen. He hadn't pitched since G2.

11:18 Did they seriously just try to tie in the Red Sox bullpen with their new "Great American Band" (or whatever) show?

Varitek flies out. One on, one out for Coco.

11:19 Well, nothing is going right tonight. An easy comebacker to Perez that should have been a 1-6-3 DP, but he throws it in the dirt to Peralta, who can't pick it, and they don't even get an out.

At least Lugo is up now.

11:22 Well, Lugo obviously can't hit, but that was a pretty nice bunt. Raffy gets pulled, leaving the bases loaded and one out. He didn't exactly pitched poorly though- a walk, an error (by him), and a bunt. Wedge won't realize this and probably won't use him the rest of the series.

11:25 I would love to know why Tom Mastny is in right now rather than Jensen Lewis.

And as I'm typing that, he throws one to the backstop. Okay, that's totally Victor's fault. Straight up missed it.

11:33 7-2, two outs, Manny up.

Sorry, I gave up when Wedge brought Mastny in. He clearly did as well.

11:36 And Lewis Ks Manny to "end the threat".

7-1, mid 8.

11:54 Saturday, Brian. Saturday. Remember, they only play every other day. Which is really wonderful.

11:57 Papelbon in for the 9th. Victor, Garko, Peralta.

12:08 I have no idea, hoody. I'm barely even watching anymore.

Two on, two out for Gutierrez.

12:10 Gutierrez flies out to the warning track in right-center, and that'll do it. 7-1 finals.

Another brilliant performance by Beckett- 8IP, 5H, 1R, 1BB, 11Ks. That's it for him in this series though, unless he comes back in relief on two days rest in game seven. Thanks, Tito.

Schilling vs. Carmona on Saturday night. Hope to see you then.

ALCS Primer: Game 5

Tonight, the Indians have a chance to clinch their first pennant in 10 years, with likely Cy Young winner C.C. Sabathia taking the hill for the Tribe at Jacobs Field.

If you isolate that information, it looks great for the Tribe. But Sabathia has struggled in the postseason, and he's going up against Josh Beckett, who has been dominant in two October starts (0BB, 15K in 15 IP).

Because of this the Sox are actually favored tonight, with Vegas giving them a 53.8% chance of extending the series to a sixth game.

Game 5 Lineups

Kielty started in right for the Sox in G1, and came through with a two-run single in the 5th that knocked Sabathia out of the game. Drew has had a pretty poor series, going 4/15 with no extra base his and no walks. I would think Kielty starts tonight against the lefty Sabathia.

Wedge played Gutierrez in right in G1, but he struck out both times he faced Beckett, so I'd guess he goes with Nixon tonight. Although I think I've been wrong on the Indians' RF the last three games, so I should probably stop.

Game 5 Starters

I have very little left to say about this Beckett character. Last six postseason appearances (five starts): 44.1 IP, 19H, 5R, 6BB, 48K, 2HR, 1.02 ERA, opponents hitting .128/.173/.209 against him. He did give up two runs against the Indians in G1, but one was a Hafner HR that was probably aided by the wind, and the second came when the score was 8-1. The Red Sox claim he left after six innings and only 80 pitches because of "tightness". I don't even really know what that means. I expect him to be absolutely filthy tonight, as usual.

Prior to this year, Sabathia had pitched over 200 innings in a season only once, throwing 210 innings in 2002. So far this season, he's at 250.1. That's probably main reason for his struggles in two postseason starts, with nerves also playing a factor (and also the fact that the two offense he's faced are just really good). After walking 37 batters over 241 regular season innings, he's issued 11 free passes in 9.1 playoff innings. Luckily for him, the Indians' other starters have gotten them this far, and tonight he has a chance to make everybody forget about his poor October thus far.

Game 5 Bullpens

These extra off days really make bullpen management easy for Wedge and Francona. Off day yesterday, and an off day tomorrow, which means they really don't have to hold much back tonight. Betancourt was the only guy who threw multiple innings in G2, and even he only threw 15 pitches (12 strikes...the guy is a machine).

Live-blog up soon. First pitch at 8:21.

Day 15: Updated Vegas Percentages

If the Red Sox had won last night these would probably look more like COL 35%, BOS 40% CLE 25%. They did not, however. If Cleveland advances, it looks like the WS is going to be about 60/40 in favor of the Indians, which means the lines would likely be CLE -170 (bet 17 to win 10), COL +150 (bet 10 to win 15).

At the beginning of the playoffs, Vegas had the AL at 63.4% to win the World Series. It's not surprising that the actual WS percentages is going to end up being lower, because a) the Rockies are pretty ridiculous right now, and b) if the Indians advance, they (fair or not, probably not) won't get as much respect as the Red Sox or Yankees would have.

There is no game tonight, for no reason other than World Series TV ratings. Normally, the only off days this late in a series are for travel. But right now, both teams are just sitting around in Cleveland, waiting for Game 5 on Thursday night. Thanks, Bud.

Whether Beckett was available to pitch last night is still unclear. It is quite difficult to evaluate Francona's decision without knowing that, but I guess the people who actually need to evaluate his performance (Epstein) know what actually happened.

At this point, the frontrunners for series MVP are probably Jhonny Peralta (.353/.389/.824, 2 2B, 2HR, 7 RBI) and Rafael Betancourt (5.1 high leverage innings, mostly against the middle of Bostons lineup, 1H, 0R, 0BB, 4K). If the series goes seven and Westbrook wins the deciding game, he would also have a strong case. If Boston wins three in a row, you'd have to assume it'll be Ramirez, Ortiz, or Beckett, but that would obviously hinge on what happens in games 5-7.

ALCS Game Four Live-Blog

6:33 Leitch on Borowski's dominance:

"Pretty much every pitcher in baseball is going to throw more innings in which he gives up no runs, than he will in which he gives up multiple ones. We are not blowing your minds here with math, are we?"

Before the game starts, it is imperative that you watch this video (title: "Shopping Penguin"). Thanks to hoody for pointing it out.

6:52 Lineups (I guessed wrong; it's Gutierrez in right for the Indians):


8:00 It is not raining. Joe Buck says this is "great news". I agree.

8:03 I did not include this with the lineups, but probably should have:




8:11 The studio guys are currently talking about whether the Red Sox should have gone with Beckett tonight. I think I am getting dumber. One of these clowns just used the reasoning that Wakefield has never lost an ALCS start.

Tim Wakefield, career postseason: 64.2 IP, 6.12 ERA

In the Division Series his ERA is 9.14, and in the LCS it drops to 3.89. This is...meaningful?

8:16 Hermano, after my 4-1 prediction for G2, I give up. Although I'll say that the starters are both out by the 5th. I have no idea who is going to win this game. Vegas has it as almost exactly 50-50, so that is not helpful.

8:19 I was thinking about this today- the Rockies were about 40:1 to win the NL before the season began, and I think the Indians were like 10:1 to win the AL. So you probably could have gotten Cleveland and Colorado meeting in the World Series at 400:1. We're two wins away from that happening.

8:21 "Cleveland Rocks" over/under: 1.5

Enough with the guest lineup introductions. Please.

We are about to get underway.

8:22 Did everybody watch the "Shopping Penguin" video?

8:23 Pedroia his the first pitch of the game fairly well, but Blake throws him out, with some help from Victor at 1st.

8:23 "Home plate umpire is Paul Emmel."

Hopefully he doesn't suck as much as Brian Gorman.

Four pitches, four strikes, two outs for Byrd.

8:24 Indians' Keys to the Game: "DON'T LET THE SOX BREATHE. BE RELENTLESS."

Whatever.

8:25 The double wind up thing, followed by a strike out of Ortiz.

And silence from Buck and McCarver?

8:28 Peralta has the weirdest nicknames. "Mr. GQ"?

8:29 Apparently, Wakefield was "terrific" this year.

I wasn't aware that a 4.76 ERA qualified as "terrific".

8:30 Leadoff walk to Grady. Terrific.

8:33 Base stealers were 41/49 vs. Wakefield this year. Grady swipes second.

8:35 Righties OPSed 64 points higher than lefties against Wakefield this year.

8:36 Hafner Ks, Victor flies out to right. No score after one.

8:39 Neyer is "live-chatting" the game tonight.

8:44 Drew strikes out. Impressive series out of him; 3/12 with three singles and zero walks.

8:46 Byrd strikes out Crisp. That's three Ks in two innings.

I don't understand anything anymore.

8:49 Nate Silver posted a preliminary list of who he thinks will be the top 20 most valuable players over the next six years.

Hanley Ramirez is really high because BP's fielding stats don't think he's nearly as bad as most others do.

Oh, and Peralta strikes out. But this is not news.

8:52 Looks like it might be the "good" Wakefield tonight. Blake is strikeout victim #4. No score after two.

8:59 What is going on with that camera they're using to show the close ups of Byrd? It looks like movie footage.

Two outs, Pedroia up.

9:02 Back-to-back two out singles, and that brings up Ortiz.

What, you thought they were getting seven two-hit innings out of Byrd?

9:05 Apparently it's a "film camera", says Brian. Whatever it is, it really bothers me.

9:05 Was it "Papi Sucks"? I couldn't tell if it was that or "Boston Sucks".

Either way, Papi grounds out to Asdrubal, disaster averted.

9:08 Good to see the Dane Cook commercial get cut off in the middle of a sentence. "Sentence".

9:09 Responding to comments: no, they don't have a hit. And no, Cook doesn't count towards the over/under. Why would it? You trying to cheat?

9:10 "One of the reasons Wedge is not going to have Shoppach bunt here..."

Is that it's Wakefield against the Indians offense, and Byrd against Boston's offense, and either team would be insane to be playing for one run in the third inning. This is the only reason needed.

9:16 3-1 pitch to Grady was not a strike.

He grounds out to Youk on the 3-2, Gutierrez to second, two outs, Asdrubal up.

9:19 From Neyer chat:

"Luke ( Albany, NY): You said above that you think Chief Wahoo is offensive. Do you think that Notre Dame's Fighting Irish is offensive?"

People are idiots.

Scoreless after three. Tim Wakefield is going to pitch a no-hitter.

9:24 Neyer chat again: people are idiots, part II.

"Ben (ohio): What makes a knuckle ball so hard to hit, can't one just adjust their bat if it's going that slow?"

9:25 "Byrd's not giving me a ton of confidence here, but it's looking like this game will be very similar to the Yankees game where you get to the sixth inning and say to yourself "damn, he really didn't do badly at all"." -Brian

Either that, or he's going to give up a 2- or 3-R HR.

I missed the replay, was Drew out at 1st? Doesn't matter, Coco flies out to right.

9:31 Those second and third strikes to Hafner looked borderline unhittable.

Victor flies out to center.

9:32 I hate these interviews with managers. They say nothing interesting.

Peralta doubles while they're busy talking to Francona. Kenny up.

9:33 Kenny grounds out to Youk.

The over/under on this game was 10.5 runs.

9:38 Mirabelli strikes out on an 86mph cutter at the letters.

Wakefield & Byrd combined line: 8.1 IP, 5H, 0R, 10 K. As expected.

Lugo lines a ball to left that almost hits Kenny in the face, but he manages to make the catch.

9:41 Pedroia grounds out. Youk-Papi-Manny up next inning.

9:44 HR Blake. 1-0.

9:46 Seems like the pitch to Blake didn't break as much as usual, and then the one to Gutierrez there was up. Here's Shoppach.

9:47 Shoppach takes a glancing blow from a 65mph knuckleball. Don't know if he'll be able to recover from that.

Delcarmen up in the Sox pen.

9:49 Grady is not bunting here, Lowell. Go back to your normal position buddy.

9:49 I love where Shoppach ended up on that slide.

Corners for Asdrubal.

9:50 Youk drops a pop-up in foul ground. That should be an error. Gutierrez was tagging, and probably would have scored.

9:52 "Didn't have a chance to mention this earlier, but in the bottom of the fourth, one of the Dynamic Duo said that Manny Ramirez knows the 19-foot wall in left field well.

Little Known Fact That Buck And/Or McCarver Should Know: Manny played right field in Cleveland. He was shifted to left when he came to Boston in 2001 because Fenway's right field is extremely difficult to play, and Manny ain't exactly a Gold Glover." -OMDQ

Thanks for that, Moynahan. I didn't hear them say that. Morons.

Asdrubal hits a liner back up the middle, Wakefield knocks it down but doesn't have a play.

McCarver *thinks* Pedroia *might* have had that if Wakefield hadn't touched it. He wouldn't have had to move.

Pronk up.

9:55 Hafner strikes out on a knuckleball that was two feet high.

9:56 "Victor now 0 for 7 as a RHB in this LCS." Informative and meaningful. As usual. They still haven't given Wakefield's splits vs RHB and LHB, have they?

9:58 This is going to shock you, but Victor Martinez just got a hit with two outs and RISP.

And McCarver is apparently surprised by this. After all, he was 0/7 from the right side in this series. In case you had forgotten.

3-0. Bye bye, Wakefield.

That's one for Cleveland rocks! Almost there, Brian.

10:03 JHONNY PERALTA!

6-0. I said I wasn't sold on Delcarmen...

10:05 "The Sox don't have Pedro warming in the bullpen, do they?" -OMDQ

"One would think that a leadoff home run would lead to fewer multi-run innings than a leadoff walk. That's not true. A leadoff home run, this year, has led to more multi-run innings than a leadoff walk." -Tim McCarver. At least he's not arguing that a leadoff walk leads to more average runs per inning anymore.

Lofton steals second.

10:09 Blake bloop a single to center. 7-0.

Should have started Beckett...

10:13 The relevant FJM post.

10:14 To be fair, the following hitter is the second run after either a leadoff hit or a leadoff walk. But why, exactly, would "conventional wisdom" expect the leadoff walk to score more often? Isn't a home run more indicative of a guy pitching poorly than a walk? And what about double plays? I think that's the argument here.

10:17 " Two outs, bottom of the fifth...and Joe Buck is calling this one in favor of the Indians." -OMDQ

Valid point.

10:18 Congratulations, Brian! "Cleveland Rocks" #2. You win.

10:22 Youuuuuuuuuuk. 7-1. Time to get Jensen Lewis warming up.

10:23 McCarver thinks that Youkilis is an idiot for hitting a HR there, rather than trying to work out a walk.

10:24 Wow, that ball was absolutely hammered. That'll happen to an 86mph FB belt high to David Ortiz.

10:26 Well, I was almost right in saying "the starters are both out by the 5th". Neither got more than 15 outs. That's gotta count for something.

10:27 Jensen Lewis coming in. Need 12 outs from the pen, but that's not the end of the world since there's an off day tomorrow.

10:32 Back-to-back-to-back. And you knew, the way Manny stood there.

I love Manny. But come on. You're down four runs.

10:34 Mike Lowell fails to hit a home run. One out.

10:36 "Man-Ram" is a terrible, lazy nickname.

Although I guess it's something other than "Manny being Manny", so that's a plus.

7-3 after 5.5. Perez, Betancourt, Borowski 7-8-9 out of the Tribe pen.

10:39 Lester in for the Sox. Okajima has pitched too much recently to bring him in for the 6th.

Theo looks upset.

10:43 Oh no, Josh Beckett has thrown 215 innings this season! He's clearly falling apart.

" Leadoff walk. If there is a God, the Indians will score one or fewer runs this inning." -OMDQ

Well put.

10:50 Victor flies out the right. Varitek, Lugo, Pedroia coming up, probably against Raffy Left.

In theory, Betancourt will be able to pitch to the heart of the order in the 8th again. In theory.

10:54 Still Lewis. Wedge always keeps him in longer than I expect. Not really complaining though.

Varitek singles to left.

10:56 6-4-3 DP. If Lewis can get Pedroia here, they've still got the two Raffys available for the 8th.

10:57 What a catch by Asdrubal. 7-3, mid 7. Youk-Ortiz-Manny up in the 8th for the Sox, probably against Betancourt. I think.

10:59 Dann Bilardello.

11:03 I know they're not, but I like to think they're comparing Peralta's defense to Tulo's.

11:11 Well here comes another ten (two!) pitch AB.

11:13 Do we think the fan in RF really accepted only $20 for the Ortiz HR ball? I would have bargained for more.

11:15 Betancourt retires Youk, Ortiz, and Manny in order. The guy is ridiculous.

Maybe Wedge will go to Perez in the 9th because it isn't a *save* situation.

I don't actually think this will happen. But it would be nice.

11:18 G2: Betancourt comes in with two outs in the 7th to face Manny. Retires first six batters he faces, and seven out of eight.
G3: Betancourt comes in for the 8th; gets Youk, ORtiz, Manny in order.
G4: " """"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""

11:25 "We might have to use "to Betancourt" as a synonym for "to Mastny" if this keeps up." -Brian

Disagree. That doesn't have the same ring to it. And makes far too much sense.

I'm fine with having Betancourt pitch the ninth, but shouldn't someone at least be warming up?

11:27 "Buck: 'Cabrera from the seventh inning on in this series is hitting .333'" -OMDQ

He really said that? That's pretty funny.

11:30 "Another night without an RBI for J.D. Drew."

Drew has come up with exactly one runner on base all night.

11:33 Two outs.

11:34 And the Indians will have a chance to clinch the AL Pennant on Thursday night.

11:39 That's it for me. We'll do this again on Thursday at 8 8:21.

ALCS Primer: Game 4

Steve Phillips thinks pitching Wakefield in G4 is the right decision. Now I am quite confident that Theo/Francona are making the wrong move here.

I hate to say this, with my team up 2-1, but I really think the team that wins tonight will end up winning the series. With Beckett going in G5, you have to like Boston's chances if they tie it up at 2. Although maybe Sabathia will find his way again.

In (a potential) Game Six, I'd give a slight advantage to the Indians, even with the game being in Boston. I really think Carmona's poor performance in G2 was a fluke, as opposed to Schilling, who just doesn't have great stuff anymore.

Game Seven would be a rematch of last night's game, Westbrook vs. Matsuzaka. It would be unreasonable to expect Westbrook to give the Indians 6.2 IP, 2 R again; last night easily could have been 5 IP, 5 R if he doesn't get a couple timely DPs. But Matsuzaka was pretty bad; I don't know how he only issued two walks, as only 59 of his 101 pitches were strikes.

Game 4 Lineups
Shoppach will catch, since Byrd is starting. That means Victor at 1st, and Garko on the bench.

Lofton and Gomez are the only Indians with more than 9 career PAs against Wakefield, which kind of surprised me. I guess it'll probably be Nixon in RF, but I really have no idea.

Strange that both of the G4 starters have "personal catchers", isn't it? I'm assuming Mirabelli will catch, withe the knuckleballer on the mound for the Sox.

Game 4 Starters
Wakefield didn't face the Indians this year. Last year, he went 5.2 inning against them, allowing five runs (three earned), while walking four and striking out three. He has not pitched in 17 days, and had a 8.76 ERA in five September starts, struggling through "nagging back pain".

Byrd started once against the Red Sox this year, on May 30. He went six innings, allowed nine hits and two runs (one earned), while walking none and striking out one. In his career against Boston he has a 4.12 ERA in 43.2 IP.

Game 4 Bullpens
Okajima threw 19 pitches last night after throwing 31 in G2; he'll probably be limited to one inning tonight. Papelbon didn't pitch in G3, so he's probably good for two innings tonight if that's needed. Delcarmen struck out both hitters he faced last night, throwing only seven pitches. Timlin threw 20 pitches last night, but only threw 12 in G2.

Borowski threw 17 pitches last night, notching the save with a 1-2-3 ninth. Betancourt retired Youkilis, Ortiz, and Ramirez in order in the 8th, on 13 pitches (eight of them to Youk). Perez got the night off, and Lewis threw only eight pitches, as he only faced one batter (Pedroia).

ALCS Game Three Live-Blog

6:01 Lineups:

7:29 OK, I think Blogger is back to working now.

Yes, those last two pitchers to Hafner were outside. But none of those pitches to Manny were even close.

7:31 Ah, there's the real Ryan Garko.

Bases loaded, nobody out. Varitek up.

7:36 Well, this isn't going to work for very long, but Westbrook gets Coco to roll into the 6-6-3 DP, and somehow gets out of the jam without a run scoring.

Rockies turned DPs in each of the first three innings last night, didnt' they? (I am not comparing the defenses of Cleveland and Colorado. Or Peralta and Tulowitzki. I am not insane).

Scoreless after 1.5.

7:42 Garko may be completely useless in the field, but the man can hit.

22 pitches, 12 strikes from Matsuzaka. He was at about 4.5 BB/9 in the last two months of the year. Something to keep an eye on.

7:45 Peralta goes down without much of a fight. Two dead, Kenny up.

7:46 LOFTON HITS ONE OUT TO RIGHT CENTER.

7:47 I normally hate these silly nicknames they come up with, but you could do worse than "The Mayor" for Kenny.

That ball just got out.

7:49 Nice play by Lugo. Needless to say, Mr. Peralta does not make that play.

2-0 Indians after two. That's enough of the "Cleveland Rocks" nonsense. I think they've played that after each inning the Indians have scored.

7:54 A 1-2-3, "two-minute" top of the third from Westbrook.

Next inning will be different, with Ortiz-Ramirez-Lowell. Although maybe he'll pull a "Mastny".

Probably not.

7:56 Keith Law is doing a chat during the game. Sample question:

"joshua (florida): are the indians for real or is it just luck!"

So yes, I would suggest you stay here.

7:58 "It's amazing that "pulling a Mastny" has been redefined away from "giving up four runs after you've come in with the bases loaded"." -Brian

I enjoyed that.

7:59 Eh...maybe, hoody. I guess there's a chance Gutierrez gets to that.

8:00 By the way, the comments are "moderated" only so e-mails pop up on my Google Talk thing every time someone comments. You would have to say something really dumb for me to reject it. Consider that a challenge, I guess.

Two outs, nobody on for Asdrubal.

8:02 Asdrubal swings at ball four, but ropes it into center anyway.

8:03 Please let me know if Buck or McCarver says something unusually dumb, I'm really not listening.

29 strikes, 22 balls for Matsuzaka. 2-0 on Pronk.

8:06 'Man, poor Keith Law. One has to wonder if "joshua (florida)" isnt' really "Steve P (Bristol)""-NSchaef

Victor up with two outs and two on. This works.

8:10 After falling behind 3-1, Matsuzaka gets Victor on some kind of crazy offspeed pitch.

Big inning for Westbrook coming up.

8:11 More from the Law chat:

Will (NJ): Who is the most overrated player in baseball?

Keith Law: (8:06 PM ET ) David Eckstein.

Nathan (Seattle): OMG give Eckstein a break! I can think of a ton of people who deserve "the most overrated" tag!

Keith Law: (8:08 PM ET ) I'll take nominations.

8:14 Ortiz lofts a ball of the monster, terribly played by Lofton, but Ortiz isn't about to go for three. Manny up.

8:15 Matsuzaka's 3-2 pitch to Victor was a slider, apparently. A pretty damn good one, too.

8:16 That 0-2 pitch to Manny was a strike. That's ridiculous.

1-2 pitch was close, but that's a ball. 2-2 now. Uh oh.

8:17 Well there's a break. Manny's GB hits Ortiz, who shouldn't be running on that to begin with. The non-strikeout actually helped the Indians.

8:19 Lowell crushes the 1-1 pitch down the LF line, but foul.

8:20 Go ahead, send Ramirez. Please.

8:23 Lowell's GB catches, Garko, inning over.

8:24 Agreed on the Buck comment, NSchaef. I'd say he's pitching more like a 7-8 pitcher right now. Buck was WAY off.

8:25 Gameday screen grab on the right is Manny's AB.

No, this is not at all necessary. But look at "3". Come on.

8:29 Stop wasting everyone's time, Jhonny.

8:30 More ESPN.com chat (re: Ortiz, obviously):

Hank (Texas): Was he called out because it hit him? Are these kickball rules now?

8:31 Kenny rolls out weakly to second.

7-8-9 coming up for the Sox.

8:37 "Opportunity for Grady Sizemore to have a coming out party on national TV."

He was on the cover of SI in May. That is all.

8:38 Five shutout innings on 63 pitches from Westbrook? Really?

Top of the order for the Sox next inning still terrifies me. Nixon-Blake-Sizemore coming up for CLE. Matsuzaka at 73 pitches, 42 strikes.

8:43 BREAKING NEWS FROM KEN ROSENTHAL: Bill Stoneman out as Angels GM. Stepping aside, will become a consultant with the club.

Wow, I started typing that as a joke, but that is actual news.

8:46 Sorry, haven't had a post about the *game* in eight minutes.

Blake singles sharply to left, Sizemore up.

8:47 Wow, excellent job by Blake. Gets down to second on a ball that barely got away from Varitek.

8:48 In Firefox, I have all my bookmarks right above the "tabs", and am constantly clicking bookmarks when trying to switch tabs. Does this happen to anyone else, or am I just an idiot?

Full count to Grady.

8:50 Brian, re: wild pitch: it bounced, didn't it? If it hits the dirt before getting to the catcher, it's always a WP, regardless of whether he should have made the play or not.

Grady walks. 91 pitches, 51 strikes for Matsuzaka. Timlin starts to get loose.

8:51 Yeah, Hermano, but it's so much easier to just click the buttons on the toolbar, as opposed to clicking on "Bookmarks", then finding it.

2-1 on Asdrubal.

8:53 Brian I'm not saying this is *fair*, this is just how it works. It's also not really fair to penalize the SS when he makes a decent throw and the 1B misses an easy pick, but that's what happens.

Asdrubal singles up the middle. Blake scores, Sizemore to third. Pronk up. Timlin?

8:55 That first pitch to Hafner was a foot outside.

8:56 Wow, unbelievable play by Pedroia. Called safe at first, but it was really, really close. I hate to agree with McCarver, but I think that's the right call.

8:57 Does telling Youk to play behind Hafner really make Francona "clued in". I mean, I guess? Isn't this something he's getting paid a lot of money to do?

8:58 Victor throws the bat at the ball and drops one into left. That's it for Matsuzaka.

8:59 "Thank you for registering for a chance to purchase tickets for potential 2007 World Series games at Jacobs Field. Unfortunately, your entry was not selected for this ticket offer."

Damn it!

9:02 "Joel Skinner, the third base coach, reminding the base runners there are two out."

This man is clued in!

9:03 "Garko with a .500 average with two out in this postseason."

Meaningful. I'm sure that's a large sample. 3 for 6?

9:06 Garko strikes out on a good pitch moving down and away from Garko. Ball four, but hard to lay off that one.

Big inning here for Westbrook.

9:10 Oh, and "Cleveland Rocks" again after the Indians' half of the inning. Necessary.

Pedroia grounds out.

9:13 Hermano: Yeah, that bothers me as well. I tried to fix it. Failed. I'll try again between innings.

9:14 Ortiz walks, after swinging 3-0. Two on, one out for Manny.

Could be 4-3 by the time you read this.

9:15 That is the correct pronunciation of the Indians' GM's name, hoody. It's usually "sha-pee-roh", but not for him.

2-0 on Manny.

9:16 Lewis and Perez warming in the Cleveland 'pen. 3-1 to Manny.

9:17 To be fair, the 3-0 to Manny was inside.

9:18 "Joe Buck's huge analysis - 'Manny Ramirez is really good.' I am stunned." -NSchaef

Manny fouls off the 3-2. This is not a fair fight.

6-4-3 DP. To quote someone (Brian?) from G2: What are the lottery numbers for tomorrow, Jake? He does get a lot of GBs, but tonight has been quite the high-wire act.

"Blogger is currently unavailable." Great.

9:25 I'm going to keep blogging, even if I can't "Publish" anything now.

The game better not get rained out tomorrow. That would be horrible.

I missed it, but apparently they said Wakefield had a "great year". 4.76 ERA. Right.

9:27 In case I somehow haven't made this clear, I think the Red Sox are idiots for not pitching Beckett tomorrow. And the D'Backs not pitching Webb tonight is even better. Does anyone disagree on this?

9:29 Timlin pitches a 1-2-3 sixth. They should definitely put Gutierrez in right now. Good point, Hermano. (And Gameday now says that's what they're doing. Nice.)

Westbrook at 82 pitches. Lowell, Drew, Varitek coming up. He'll obviously come back out, but he's got to be on a short leash here. He had to be pulled if the Sox get two on.

9:31 A little late, but final line on Matsuzaka: 4.2IP, 6H, 4R, 4ER, 2BB, 6K, 1HR, 101 pitches, 59 strikes. I obsess about K:BB ratio, but that's really, really misleading. I don't know how he only walked two guys. He's was pretty bad tonight.

Drew singles up the middle. One on, one out for Varitek. A ground ball here would be a nice way to end Westbrook's night.

9:35 Varitek hits a two run bomb to straight away center. I didn't think it would come from him, but something like that was going to happen eventually.

And they're leaving Westbrook in. Why? I do not know.

9:37 Westbrook gets a questionable call on a 3-1 pitch to Coco. That ball was outside.

9:39 Crisp strikes out; the Sox really got screwed on that 3-1 call. Strike zone has been inconsistent both ways all night. Which is fine- not like these games are important.

9:42 Lugo reaches on an infield single. That's it for Westbrook; Lewis coming in to face Pedroia as t