Futures Watch: Week 17

Oakland, 100:1 (VIP, Matchbook)
Current Record: 52-48
PECOTA Playoff Odds: 18.4%
Tampa Bay, 11.5:1 (5Dimes)
Current Record: 58-41
PECOTA: 78.6%

Tampa beat Oakland today, 4-3.

I think it's time to stop including Oakland every week. PECOTA still thinks they have a shot, but that's not particularly meaningful at this point. Not only have they traded away 2/5 of their rotation, but PECOTA was seemingly overrating their chances to begin with. The A's are available at 18-1 to win the division at Matchbook right now, and nobody is biting.

That's not to say that PECOTA was wrong about Oakland, or that their preseason odds (17-1 to win the division, at BetUS at least) weren't worth betting on. Their 4.5 game lead on the Angels in the Adjusted Standings indicates that things simply haven't broken their way; they could very easily be a few games up in the division, rather than 10 out. And if that were true, it's likely that Harden and Blanton would still be in their rotation right now. Things just didn't quite work out. It happens.

Milwaukee, +300 to win the NL Central (Carib)
+250 to win the NL Central (BetUS, Sportsbook)

These are just ridiculous. The Brewers are -180 to not win the division at Matchbook right now. They're one game back of the Cubs (assuming Chicago doesn't blow their current 10-3 lead against Arizona). Milwaukee's chances of winning the division are probably closer to 50-50 than 1 in 4.

How this discrepancy came to be is pretty obvious. A week ago, Milwaukee was five out, and in third place. They've since won six in a row, including three against the Cardinals (they've actually won seven straight overall, but they started the streak before the ASB). They're now three games ahead of an inferior St. Louis team in the loss column, with Sheets going against Wellemeyer on Thursday night.

Futures Watch: Week 15

Oakland, 40:1 (Sportsbook)
7:1 to win the AL West (VIP)
Current Record: 49-42
PECOTA Playoff Odds: 39.6%
Tampa Bay, 9:1 (BetUS)
Current Record: 55-35
PECOTA: 91.7%

I do not think Billy Beane had this blog in mind when making the Rich Harden trade. I'm not sure what I ever did to him; I've read his book at least twice.

After a shocking double by Willie Bloomquist broke the streak and extended Seattle's lead to 2-0, Oakland staged a rousing comeback to win 3-2 in 11. They have a huge series with the Angles this weekend; if they sweep, there's certainly value in their division line, a probably even if they take two of three.

The Rays have hit a bit of a rough stretch, losing three in a row after their seven-game win streak. They actually have a pretty easy schedule coming up; they don't play the Red Sox, Yankees, White Sox, or Angels until LA comes into town on August 18.

Also, Evan Longoria is an All-Star. But yeah, clearly they were insane to give a big contract to a guy who had only played a few major league games. What a stupid move that was.

NY Mets, 20:1 (Sportsbook)
Current Record: 47-44
PECOTA: 56.7%

The Mets won their sixth in a row today, moving to four games above .500. Things were looking pretty bleak after they lost to Philadelphia last Friday, but they ended up taking three of four in that series, and ten sweeping the Giants. They have Colorado at home before the break, then go to Cincinnati before hosting the Phillies. Only 1.5 games out at the moment, the Mets could very realistically be in first place after that next series against Philadelphia.

Harden Traded To Cubs

The NL Central, which is apparently trying to become the new AL East, acquired its second big name in as many days on Tuesday, as Chicago traded RHP Sean Gallagher, OFs Matt Murton, 2B Eric Patterson, and single-A catcher Josh Donaldson to the Athletics for pitchers Rich Harden and Chad Gaudin.

Gallagher seems to be the headliner going to the A's. He doesn't turn 23 until December, and he has already logged 10 starts (and two relief appearances) for the Cubs, with a 49:22 K:BB ratio in 58.2 innings, and a 4.45 ERA. He ranked 71st on Keith Law's top 100 prospects in the preseason, with Law noting he has a "good chance to end up a solid No. 4 in the majors". That might not sound like much, but the fact that he's already pitching in the majors, and thus the probability of him being a meaningful contributor is quite high, makes him a valuable asset at age 22.

Being a Cubs prospect, Eric Patterson has been incessantly fiddled with, having started the year at AAA and already been up and down twice. Though 25, and without a particularly high ceiling, he has hit well at Iowa, with a .323/.356/.519 line, and 10 stolen bases in 10 opportunities. With Mark Ellis' contract expiring at the end of this season, Patterson may be his replacement.

Murton has experienced a similarly hectic year, although he hadn't yet been sent down after being recalled for a second time. He has seen very limited playing time while with the Cubs, playing in 19 games but only getting more than two PAs in six. In Chicago he's struggled, with a line of .250/.286/.300. He has fared much better in more regular playing time at Iowa, batting .298/.397/.382. In 690 PAs with the Cubs in 06-07, he posted an OPS of 102. At 26, he's not going to get all that much better, and immediately jumps into Oakland's crowded outfield mix.

The final piece is Josh Donaldson, who was 76th on Law's top 100 in February. That paints a very optimistic portrait of the catcher, as he's struggled terribly in low-A this season, hitting .223/.282/.358.

Beane is buying low on the latter two, and probably selling high on Harden. He has made 11 consecutive starts, the first time he's done that since mid-2005 (that was a streak of 12 starts). His velocity was reportedly down around 87-89 two starts ago, and he complained of a dead arm. He struggled with his command--issuing four walks in five innings--in his most recent start on Sunday. So one has to wonder about his current health, as the A's would have more knowledge of that than anyone else. Or they may just think he's inevitably going to break down in the near future. Harden's contract contains a $7MM club option for 2009.

Whether Sabathia was traded "too early" is (clearly) debatable, but if Beane was going to trade Harden, sooner seems much preferred to later. The whole point of trading him is to unload risk; if that's your goal, there's not a whole lot of sense in risking him getting injured in the next three weeks.

Not to be overlooked is Gaudin, a 25-year old who has made six starts and 20 relief appearances this year. In 62.2 innings he has put up a 44:17 K:BB ratio, and has a 3.59 ERA. Though still relatively young, he made his major league debut with Tampa at 20, so he is only controlled through 2010.

Futures Watch: Week 14

This week:

Oakland, 40:1 (Sportsbook)
Current Record: 45-38
PECOTA Playoff Odds: 49.6%
Tampa Bay, 12:1 (BetUS)
+220 to win the AL East (VIP)
Current Record: 51-32
PECOTA: 92.1%

The statistics above do not reflect today's events.

Does this mean I'm going to have to do series previews every week? I hope not.

The home team is now 12-0 in this year's Rays-Red Sox games. That is a nice little stat which will inevitably get blown out of proportion when they meet again in September. Some even thought it was important enough to make Boston a "contrarian" pick on Wednesday. They were wrong.

By the way, I would imagine it's quite rare to get a team that's five up in the loss column at +220 to win the division. Although if you haven't gotten on board by now, you're probably not in agreement with PECOTA's forecast anyway.

They Rays now have an off day before hosting the Royals for four; the Red Sox are heading to New York for a four game series beginning on Thursday. So that presents another opportunity for the Rays to increase their current 3.85 game lead.

This week's results in Anaheim were not nearly as encouraging, but that probably shouldn't come as much of a surprise, given the location. If the A's can survive four games this weekend in Chicago, they have a chance to make up some ground next week, as they host Seattle and Los Angeles before the break.

San Francisco, 300:1 (5Dimes)
Current record: 37-47
PECOTA: 4.6%

This isn't how it was supposed to be. The Giants' offense was supposed to score three runs a game, and Lincecum and Cain were going to combine for a 2.75 ERA, and an 11-25 W-L record.

Instead, they're "only" third to last in the NL in both scoring and OPS+. With the exception of shortstop, they haven't suffered any major injuries, and everyone has performed at or above expectations. They're on pace to beat their PECOTA projection of 634 RS by only 20 runs, but that's with scoring down almost 7% across the board in the NL.

The real winners in this--assuming they don't win the division, which would really just be embarrassing for everyone involved--may be Lincecum. He's been as good as advertised, with a 2.38 ERA and 9.4 K/9. Somewhat shockingly, he's gotten an above average amount of run support, at 5.1 R/G. That has allowed him to start 9-1, and he's currently a close third in Cy Young Predictor. It's going to be an uphill climb, but could end up being an intriguing storyline in the second half.

Oh, and unless you really believe the playoffs are a crapshoot, I wouldn't bet on them just yet. Although their rotation would set up quite nicely in October. I must admit, I hadn't thought about that possibility until just now.

Futures Watch: Week 13

This week:

Oakland, 50:1 (Sportsbook)
Current Record: 42-34
PECOTA Playoff Odds: 52.5%
Tampa Bay, 16.5:1 (5Dimes)
Current Record: 45-31
PECOTA: 76.8%

After all this, you can still get pretty decent prices on these two teams. The Rays are +400 to win the East at Sportsbook, and PECOTA loves that Oakland WS line.

The PECOTA percentages for the AL West are very strange. Even with the Angels having a five game led, the division is almost a toss-up, with the A's having a 45.8% chance of winning it. This is caused by the Angels having outplayed their third-order record by 8.3 games. The playoff odds probably underrate the Angels somewhat--Lackey has been great since returning--but it's unclear how much.

Kansas City, 100:1 to win the AL Central (Sportsbook, BetUS)
Current Record: 35-43
PECOTA: 1.2%

On June 15, the Royals were 26-42, and had a 0.15% chance of winning the division. Since then (including tonight) they've won 10 of 11, and probably increased their division percentage by a factor of 10.

Tonight, they passed the Indians. As I write this, they're only 1.5 games behind Detroit. And the White Sox and Twins aren't exactly juggernauts. It's obviously unlikely, but 100:1 odds for a team that's only 7.5 games out are pretty hard to pass up.

Futures Watch: Week 12

This week:

Oakland, 35:1 (VIP)
Current Record: 39-31
PECOTA Playoff Odds: 71.3%
Tampa Bay, 16.5:1 (5Dimes)
Current Record: 41-29
PECOTA: 70.2%

The Rays beat the Cubs tonight. As I write this, the A's are down 8-0 in Arizona.

I tried to come up with a pretty graph that shows the dramatic effect home-field has had on the AL East race. I failed, but am posting it anyway. The following graph is how many games each team is over .500 on each day of the season. The red line is Boston; the thicker parts are home games, the thin parts are road games. The blue line is, obviously, the Rays.

As you can see, every time the Rays have taken the lead, it's been when they're at home and Boston is on the road. And all Boston's big surges have been at home. So there you have it.

The Rays are on pace to allow 671 runs, which would be 273 fewer runs than last year.

Milwaukee, 75:1 (VIP)
Current Record: 37-33
PECOTA: 29.4%

Propelled by Russ Branyan's 9th HR in 59 ABs, the Brewers won 5-4 tonight.

I don't really understand what VIP has against Milwaukee, it's something. The best I see on them anywhere else is 40:1 at Sportsbook. They have better than a 1 in 76 chance of winning the World Series. This seems pretty obvious.

Seattle, 1000:1 (VIP)
250:1 to win the AL West (VIP)
Current Record: 25-46
PECOTA: 0.007%

Don't bet on these, obviously. I just wanted to take a second to point out that the Mariners are on pace to win 57 games. Steve Phillips predicted they would win 92 games. Steve Phillips is on pace to be off by 35 games in predicting how many games a team would win in a 162 game season. That is extremely hard to do.

Futures Watch: Week 11

Bodog does not have futures up at the moment, so their odds won't be included this week.

Last week:
Milwaukee, 75:1 (VIP)
40:1 to win the NL (VIP)
12:1 to win the NL Central (Sportsbook)

They are now 40:1 to win it all at VIP (45:1 at 5Dimes), and 20:1 to win the pennant. So that went pretty much as expected.

This week:

Oakland, 40:1 (Sportsbook)
Current Record: 34-30
PECOTA Playoff Odds: 57.2%
Tampa Bay, 17:1 (5Dimes)
Current Record: 38-27
PECOTA: 73.9%

A quick note from Davenport about the PECOTA odds:

I did find a bug in this program on June 7; changes which should have been accumulating gradually all season were suddenly introduced all at once. As described below, the Pct3 is supposed to be a combination of ther actual performance to date and the performance expected by PECOTA; due to the error, it was simply stuck on the pre-season PECOTA value.

Both the Rays and A's have excellent third-order records. Also, the Angels' third-order record is awful, at 32-34. So that explains the large changes from last week.

The Rays went 3-6 during their "important stretch", falling just shy of Mr. Wisinski's goal. They've dropped to two games back of Boston, but only one in the loss column. Hopefully they can make up some ground on their nine game homestand against the Marlins, Cubs, and Astros, which begins on Friday.

Chicago White Sox, 15:1 (5Dimes)
White Sox to win the AL Central, +110 (VIP)
Current record: 37-27
PECOTA: 80.2%

The limit on the VIP line is $1000*. They are -190 at BetUS, and -400 at Sportsbook. PECOTA has them at 79.3% to win the division.

In fact, you could take Chicago at +110 at VIP, the Tigers at +750 at BetUS, and the Indians, Royals, and Twins at Sportsbook (+450, +10000, and +600, respectively) and guarantee a profit, as those five lines add up to 92.8%. It is also likely that you will be able to get a good price on the White Sox to not win the division to hedge this with at Matchbook in the near future.

*Please note that VIP has "night limits" which are in effect from midnight EST until around 10am EST.

Futures Watch: Week 10

This week:
Oakland, 35:1 (VIP)
Current Record: 32-27
PECOTA Playoff Odds: 27.7% (-4.8% since last week)
Tampa Bay, 17:1 (5Dimes)
Current Record: 35-23
PECOTA: 54.9% (+3.4%)

The A's completed a sweep of the Tigers this afternoon, while Tampa's road struggles continued in their loss to the Red Sox.

The Rays placed Percival on the DL, and missed picking first in the draft while in first place by a day. Not much else to report that hasn't already been said; a win on Thursday (Shields v. Lester) sure would be nice.

Milwaukee, 75:1 (VIP)
40:1 to win the NL (VIP)
12:1 to win the NL Central (Sportsbook)
Current record: 31-28
PECOTA: 41.8%

All of these are good, with the pennant odds probably being the best.

Finally, the Brewers show some results. After sweeping the reeling Diamondbacks, they've won six in a row, and nine of 10. They go on the road now, but against Colorado and Houston.

The difference (besides actually playing some home games) has been the pitching--over their last 10 games, they have allowed only 21 runs.

I don't know what else to say. I've written about this team nearly every week. 40:1 is way, way too high.

Futures Watch: Week 9

This week:
Oakland, 40:1 (5Dimes)
Current Record: 29-23
PECOTA Playoff Odds: 32.5% (+5.2% since last week)
Tampa Bay, 22:1 (5Dimes)
Current Record: 31-21
PECOTA: 51.5% (+2.1%)

Tampa won today. Oakland went 5-0 this week, significantly boosting their playoff chances. Interesting to note that PECOTA thinks there's an 81.6% chance that the wild card comes out of the East, so the A's are probably going to have to overtake the Angels to reach the postseason.

The fun is over. The odds for these two teams are not good. I don't see us going back to the days of the Rays being 200:1 to win the pennant any time soon.

Milwaukee, 100:1 (VIP)
Current Record: 25-27
PECOTA: 35.3% (-1.1%)

I'm sick of writing about this team, but this has gotten out of hand. They won today, so they're actually 26-27. VIP also has them at 50:1 to win the NL, which is probably better than their WS odds, since they're likely to be underdogs should they reach the WS.

This is far from the consensus. Their WS odds are between 33:1 (Bodog is awful for these) and 50:1 (Sportsbook) other places. At the beginning of the year, their highest odds were 30:1.

If you go by PECOTA, as you can see above, they're a little better than 1 in 3 to reach the playoffs. If you only look at their performance so far this year, they're about 1 in 10. The truth probably lies somewhere in between, but considering 50:1 to win the pennant is a borderline wager even at 10%, these are very good odds.

One interesting aspect of Milwaukee's season so far is that is that they've played 31 road games, but only 22 home games. Obviously, this is something that evens out over the course of the year. The Brewers have gotten off to a rough start, but their schedule if favorable the rest of the way, and they're only six games back of the Cubs. Nobody should be completely giving up on them yet, which is essentially what VIP is doing by offering these odds.

Futures Watch: Week 8

This week:
Oakland, 50:1 (VIP)
Current Record: 24-23
PECOTA Playoff Odds: 27.3%
Tampa Bay, 35:1 (BetUS, 5Dimes)
Current Record: 27-19
PECOTA: 49.4%

Oakland beat the Rays today, which is not factored into any of the statistics above.

Tampa's average weekly odds thus far this year:


The first big shift comes directly after their six-game winning streak, which ended April 27. Their odds have been steadily descending since.

They've now allowed 193 runs in 47 games, on pace for 665. A little higher than last year, but I'm pretty sure they'd take that.

A week ago, BetUS had the Rays at 16:1 to win the AL East. Today, their best odds to win it all are 35:1, and it's as low as 20:1 at Sportsbook. (They didn't screw around, dropping it all the way from 100:1. Seems as though they're not too interested in taking many more bets on Tampa.)

Prior to today's win, Oakland had lost 8 of 10. Unsurprisingly, the offense was the problem, hitting .233/.313/.361 over that span (at least they're still walking).

It feels like it'll be hard for the A's to hang with the Angels all year--they're currently three games out--but it's certainly possible. The Angels were 27-20 coming into today, but their third-order record is actually under .500. Their scoring margin was only +8, and that's even while performing well in clutch situations.

Atlanta, 40:1 (VIP)
Current Record: 24-21
PECOTA: 31.8%

Contrast this with the Mets' best odds--10:1 at Sportsbook. Not only are the Braves two games ahead in the standings after today's win, but they've played much better so far this year.

Atlanta has now outscored their opponents by 58 runs. Some of that is because of a relatively weak schedule, but it's still impressive. The Mets, on the other hand, are only +4, against an average schedule.

The Braves have done this by playing well on both sides of the ball--both their OPS+ and ERA+ are 117. Obviously Chipper has led the offense, but McCann has been very good as well, hitting .321/.382/.596.

PECOTA's odds likely underestimate their playoff chances; the question is by how much. The version of the playoff odds that only considers data from this season has them at 54.3%, so it's probably somewhere in the middle. If they're 40% to reach the playoffs, and 50-50 to win the DS, and 40% to win the CS, that'd put their pennant odds at 11.5:1; BetUS has them at 17:1, so that's probably a pretty good wager.

Edit: At Matchbook they are +950 to win the NL, and -1450 to not win the NL, so 17:1 is definitely good.

Also: Losing with the Right Guys [Let's Go Tribe]

Futures Watch: Week 6

Last week:
Cincinnati, 150:1 (still 150:1)
Texas, 1000:1 (now 500:1)

Both teams that were 1000:1 at VIP last week (Rangers & Nationals) played competently this week (5-2 and 4-2, respectively), and are now 500:1. It's not like their World Series chances doubled; the folks at VIP probably just realized there is no reason to put a team at 1000:1 to win the World Series in early May.

The Reds were not as fortunate, going 1-5. This dropped their PECOTA Playoff Odds from 8.8% to 5.9%. Their odds are probably about right at this point.

This week:
Oakland, 45:1 (5Dimes)
Current Record: 21-14
PECOTA Playoff Odds: 34.2%
Tampa Bay, 100:1 (Sportsbook)
Current Record: 17-15
PECOTA: 33.9%

The fun is almost over with these two. Oakland's odds are entirely reasonable- between 30:1 and 45:1- at all five sites now. Sportsbook is a little behind on Tampa, but the best you can do on them anywhere else is 66:1. And at BetUS, their "to win division" odds have been dropped from 25:1 to 14:1. It was fun while it lasted, at least.

Rough week for Tampa's run prevention. Over their last six games they've gone 1-5, and allowed 42 runs. They're now on pace to allow 722 runs; a big dropoff from last week's pace of 654, but still 222 fewer runs than last season.

Now would be the time to get them at Sportsbook at 100:1. People are starting to catch on, if slowly.

After staring at all the current odds for about 10 minutes, I've got nothing. At times like this, I turn to Matchbook. Always something interesting going on over there.

The most useful thing about Matchbook, from an informational standpoint, is that it's an exchange, so you can bet on both sides of their futures. For example, you can currently bet on the Red Sox at +530 to win the World Series, or at -650 to not win the World Series. With these, we can figure that Boston has between a 13.3% and 14.6% chance of winning it all. Averaging those, it's 14%; "true odds" of +580. Sure enough, the best odds you can find on them is the +530 at Matchbook, followed by +485 5Dimes.

I did this same exercise for all 10 teams that current have money being offered on both sides of the "World Series 2008" prop. Here are their "true odds", compared to their highest available odds elsewhere:

The first nine all come in below their true odds. They're all close- none are terrible bets, but none are worth making.

Then there's Toronto. The Blue Jays are 60:1 at VIP, and between 30:1 and 35:1 everywhere else. My focus has obviously been elsewhere, but Toronto is off to a decent start. They're only 17-18, but they've outscored their opponents by 17 runs. True to expectations, their run prevention has been excellent- their 124 runs allowed are the fewest in the American League, and second fewest in baseball (Atlanta, 120).

Sadly, they cannot score, and managed to get both their shortstops injured in one game. Realistically, 60:1 isn't that great; you'd be better off taking them at +1700 to win the East at Matchbook.

Related: Cliff Lee: great pitcher, or greatest pitcher? Discuss.

Futures Watch: Week 5

Sorry about the lack of posts over the past couple days. Finals week.

Last week:
Atlanta, 40:1; now 30:1
Cleveland, 17:1; now 12:1

This week:

Oakland, 75:1 (BetUS)
Current Record: 17-12
PECOTA Playoff Odds: 33.3%
Tampa Bay, 125:1 (BetUS)
Current Record: 15-12
PECOTA: 36.8%

Some books are giving these guys respect, but not all of them, causing for some huge gaps. You can still get Oakland at 75:1, but they're 20:1 at Sportsbook. BetUS decided to increase Tampa's odds from 80:1 to 125:1 (not sure how you can explain that), but they're down to 60:1 at VIP.

Even more encouraging than the impressive records of these two teams is that they are legitimate assessments of their performance so far. Looking at BP's Adjusted Standings, the Rays have the best third-order record in the East, and Oakland easily has the best third-order record in the West. At least in April, both of these teams have played like legitimate contenders.

The A's have scored a lot of runs (135, fourth in the league), but they're not going to continue to hit .309/.407/.431 with RISP.

The Rays are now on pace to allow 654 runs, which is somewhat absurd. They are third in the majors in Defensive Efficiency. And Kazmir makes his return on Sunday. They're still 25:1 to win the East at BetUS, by the way.

In less optimistic news, Dave Cameron has a post at FanGraphs (some great stuff over there recently) about how Eric Hinske is not likely to continue hitting .292/.407/.639.

Cincinnati, 150:1 (VIP)
Current Record: 12-17
PECOTA: 7.92%
Texas, 1000:1 (VIP)
Current Record: 10-18
PECOTA: 3.82%

Some wacky lines at VIP. The best you can do in the Reds elsewhere is 80:1, and 200:1 for Texas. I think they're able to do this because of their low limits. The site is down right now so I can't double check this, but I'm pretty sure that the max "to win" on these bets is $5,000, so they're really not exposing themselves that much. Some sites have the max bet at $500; if someone maxed out the Rangers, and they somehow made a run, they'd stand to lose half a million dollars. Not the case with VIP's low limits, so they can be a little more liberal.

The Rangers are worth a $5 at that price, I would think. I mean come on, it's still the AL West.

Not much else out there this week. The Dodgers are 35:1 at VIP, which seems high. Should have a post with an update on the leaders of the MLB totals contest up a little later.

Futures Watch: Week 4

Along with the regulars, I've also taken odds from VIP this week. They tend to have some pretty good prices on futures.

Same as always, except this week I have incorporated the World Series percentages that MGL posted for each team yesterday.

Oakland, 75:1 (BetUS)
Current Record: 12-9
PECOTA Playoff Odds: 32.9%
MGL World Series odds: 4.2%
Tampa Bay, 150:1 (VIP)
Record: 9-11
PECOTA: 28.8%
MGL World Series odds: 2.7%

Every week. I was not kidding.

The Rays won tonight, so they're actually 10-11. They have scored 103 runs, and allowed 93, putting them on pace to give up 717 runs on the year. This is the exact same pace as last week, which is kind of amazing. PECOTA's seemingly crazy projection had them with an RA of 718. Kazmir's rehab start went well today, and he's expected to return on May 3 or 4.

VIP has excellent odds on them, but the "max bet to win" is $3,000, so you can't wager more than $20. They are still available at 100:1 at Sportsbook and 5Dimes. They're also 100:1 to win the AL on VIP; you can bet $30 on that.

The only problem with Oakland's hot start is that their odds are dropping. They were 125:1 at 5Dimes two weeks ago, and 80:1 at the same book last week. 5Dimes has probably been receiving some action on the A's, since they're all the way down to 66:1 now.

Tim Brown of Yahoo! Sports initially reported that Oakland had signed Frank Thomas, but is now saying he is also considering an offer from a second team. Hopefully the A's get that done- he would be an excellent addition.

Atlanta, 40:1 (Sportsbook)
Record: 10-10
PECOTA: 27.9%
MGL World Series odds: 5.2%

Lost today, now 10-11.

I was surprised to see the Braves this high at Sportsbook. At the other four sites they are between 25:1 and 32:1. MGL's percentages confirm my surprise, as he would have Atlanta at 18:1.

They have not exactly gotten off to a flying start standings-wise, but have actually outscored their opponents by 24 runs which, as we have seen, bodes well for them going forward.

I don't really have much to say here. Their line seems way too high- they are probably not as good as the Mets, but the best odds you can get on New York are 6.5:1 at VIP. That's a pretty ridiculous discrepancy. Unless they play very poorly in the near future, I can't imagine they'll be 40:1 for much longer.

Cleveland, 17:1 (VIP)
Record: 8-12
PECOTA: 52.9%
MGL World Series odds: 8.6%

VIP has the Indians at 17:1, and the Tigers at 6:1. If someone could explain this to me, I would really appreciate it.

This really seems like more of an inefficiency in VIP's odds than anything else. Thsi can happen at the beginning of the year, when we are still going by expectations/reputation as opposed to actual performance. There is just no reason for that huge gap. The Indians have not been playing particularly well, but they have outscored their opponents by three runs. Cliff Lee has been brilliant, and Sabathia finally looked like his old self last night. This is still a very good team- the favorite to win their division. The Indians and Tigers should each be around 12:1; I think that would make a lot more sense.

Futures Watch: Week 3

(All records/percentages through Tuesday's games. Odds taken from 5Dimes, Sportsbook, Bodog, and BetUS)

Last week's picks
Oakland (125:1), now 80:1 (5Dimes)
Tampa Bay (100:1), now 100:1 (Sportsbook)
Milwaukee (30:1), now 27:1 (5Dimes)
Baltimore (250:1), now 250:1 (5Dimes)
Detroit (12:1), now14:1 (Sportsbook)

The Brewers' odds adjusted a little bit, but they also went from up two to tied with the Cubs, so they're still pretty high. Their wost odds are 20:1, so everything has regressed to 24:1, which is about where they should be.

I said that 12:1 would be Detroit's low point, which didn't turn out to be correct. I didn't anticipate they'd continue to lose and end up at 2-10. They did.


This week's picks

Oakland, 80:1 (5Dimes)
Current Record: 9-6
PECOTA Playoff Odds: 34.4%
Tampa Bay, 100:1 (Sportsbook)
Record: 6-8
PECOTA: 31.6%

These two will continue to be featured on a weekly basis until they play themselves out of contention. PECOTA is just that far off from the general consensus.

Tampa's quest to improve their run prevention is off to an excellent start-they've allowed 62 runs in 14 games, putting them on pace to allow 717 over the course of the season. This is actually one less than PECOTA's extremely optimistic prediction, although it's obviously still quite early. Their preliminary defensive numbers are very good, as BP's Defensive Efficiency has them 9th in the majors. Edwin Jackson, who has been a prospect for approximately 17 years, has been a pleasant surprise, with a 2.84 ERA in three starts. He hasn't exactly turned a corner though, as he's issued 10 walks, and has a BABiP of .202 (great defense!). It should be noted that if you were somehow panicking about the Rays' 6-8 record, they've actually outscored their opponents by 11 runs. Also, Kazmir is yet to throw a pitch- his ideal return date is May 3.

Oakland was 5-2 this week, which probably seems impressive until you remember three of those games were against a AAA team. They've only allowed 55 runs,which is 14 fewer than any other team in their division. And that has to be the measuring stick here, for anything Oakland does- they don't have to be worldbeaters, or even win 86 games- they simply need to win more games than any other team in the American League West.

Kansas City, 200:1 (5Dimes)
Current Record: 8-6
PECOTA Playoff Odds: 7.1%

Are the Royals going to make the playoffs? No, probably not. Could they? I think so. If they make it 7.1% of the time, and win it all 7% of the time they make it, 200:1 is fair. So that's probably about right, but my goal is to write about all 30 teams in Futures Watch this year. This is their time.

Bannister and Greinke are both off to completely ridiculous starts. Combined, they've struck out just 22 batters over 45 innings, yet they've allowed a total of four runs. Greinke's BABiP of .214 looks entirely reasonable when compared to Bannister's .178. No matter how good of a writer Joe Posnanski is, I remain unconvinced that Bannister has outsmarted DIPS. Regardless, with those two, Meche, Soria, Gordon, and Butler, they are certainly moving in the right direction. It's just pretty unlikely that that direction involves the phrase "2008 World Series Champions".

There is really not much out there right now. I have a theory about this. I think that the odds adjust very efficiently to teams that start off the season well- it's hard to miss the fact that the A's are tied for first, and so their best odds went from 125:1 last week to 80:1 this week. Once we get a little deeper into the season, this will change. At that point, a team can go on a bit of a hot streak, and since it won't necessarily be explicitly visible in the standings, few people will take notice. That's what happened last year with both the Rockies and Mariners. Hopefully this will again be the case this year, and I'll be able to point these out.

Futures Watch: Week 2

I did this last year- nobody was actually reading then, but hopefully it was good practice. Every week (in theory), I'll take a look at some interesting futures odds on who will win the World Series.

The main tool I use in doing this, beyond common sense, is the BP Playoff Odds report. There are multiple versions of it, but this early in the season the PECOTA version is the useful one. It takes into account games that have been played, but also uses PECOTA's preseason projections to forecast the rest of the season. The original version is an excellent resource later in the year, but since it only relies on data from games played this season, it's fairly useless right now- I don't think the Royals have a 35% chance of winning the Central.

(All records/percentages through Tuesday's games. Odds taken from 5Dimes, Sportsbook, Bodog, and BetUS)

Oakland, 125:1 (5Dimes)
Current Record: 4-4
PECOTA Playoff Odds: 30.3%
Tampa Bay, 100:1 (Sportsbook)
Record: 3-4
PECOTA: 36.0%

These are PECOTA suggestions, as it'd be hard to turn down 100:1 odds on a team that has a 1 in 3 chance of playing in October. The question becomes, do they really have such a good chance? The Rays have already been discussed- if you believe they can allow 226 fewer runs than last year, then go for it. It's worth noting that Tampa's odds have been bet down (I'm sure PECOTA played a role in this), as you could've gotten them at 200:1 just to win the AL a few weeks ago.

PECOTA is higher than others on Oakland's offense, and has them finishing with 80 wins. In the abstract, this seems too high, but looking at their roster, PECOTA's expectations don't seem particularly unreasonable. Failing to account for potential injuries is not the issue, as they only have Chavez playing 55% and Harden making 16 starts. In that miserable division, they are probably worth a flyer. I really haven't figured the A's out yet though- if I do, I'll let you know.

Milwaukee, 30:1 (5Dimes)
Record: 6-1
PECOTA: 51.1%

I am not one to overreact to early season results. They do need to be taken into account, though. Before the season started PECOTA had the Cubs winning 91 games, and the Brewers 88. That is not a huge difference, but it's cetainly significant. Seven games into the season, Milwaukee is two games up on Chicago in the standings. Even if we (correctly) infer nothing from their performance so far, they've already made up 2/3 of the gap that existed in March. This is proven in the fact that PECOTA has the Cubs on pace for 92.7 wins, with Milwaukee at 91.5. We shouldn't read too much into how the two teasm will play throughout the rest of the season based on just seven games, but gapes in the standings, however early, certainly do matter.

This team can really hit. Braun and Fielder are the big names, but Hart is right behind them, and many people are expecting a big year out of Weeks. Everyone in the lineup is projected to have a VORP of over 20 except for Kendall. He is their one weak spot, although has somehow hit .526/.565/.737 over the first week. This is a very good lineup, and has as good a chance of any non-Colorado team of leading the league in runs scored.

At 30:1, you're going to have to take on some risk. In this case, that comes in the form of the pitching staff. Sheets is off to a fantastic start, but obviously the issue with him is health. Gallardo is out, but has looked good in rehab. The rotation also has some upside in Parra and Villanueva. Sure, it's possible that Sheets gets hurt again, Gallardo never makes it back, and the two newcomers to the rotation fall flat on their faces. But at these odds, it's worth that risk.

(Yes, I'm aware of their closer issues. But they do have Turnbow, Riske, Torres, and whomever leaves the rotation when Gallardo returns. I don't need to tell you have overrated closers are- it's not a terrible bullpen.)

Baltimore, 250:1 (BetUS)
Record: 6-1
PECOTA: 2.3%

I wouldn't actually bet on this, but I'd imagine it's rare to get a team in first place- by two games!- at these odds. I didn't want to go the whole year without writing about the Orioles, and this is likely my only chance. The most relevant thing they're doing right now is delaying the potential Roberts-to-Chicago trade, which only helps Milwaukee.

Detroit, 12:1 (Sportsbook)
Record: 0-7
PECOTA: 40.1%

These aren't very good either, but 12:1 now is better than 7.5:1 a week ago. Yes, they are struggling, but everything is relative- it's not like the Indians (4-5) are lighting the world on fire. If you are dead set on betting on the Tigers, now is probably the time to do so.

This Week's Links (3/3-3/7)

UConn lost to Providence last night. I do not know why everyone is (was?) so high on them. Yes, Thabeet is a defensive force inside- they are first in the country in 2-point FG defense. But their perimeter defense is terrible. Their offense is okay- Price and Thabeet are very good, Adrien is solid, Robinson is athletic but uninspiring. Their undoing last night was 21 turnovers. Depends on the draw, of course, but I'd be shocked if they win more than two games in the tourney.

Favre Moses Kinsaul's parents are mean. Or maybe just dumb.

When something in the NBA catches my attention, you know it must be impressive: LeBron went absolutely nuts against the Knicks. This was after talking to Jay-Z in the middle of the game.

Posnanski has been doing some very amusing AL division previews: East, Central, West. Here's Oakland's:

To the Moneyball man go of all the spoils
The most famous GM on American soil
But this part ain’t funny
He’s still got no money
And a roster that’s filled with ex-Royals

The Indians are not on Sunday Night Baseball in the first half of the season. But at least we all get to enjoy the BBTN team of Ravech, Kruk, Steve, and EY. Remember when that show used to be insightful? That was a long time ago.

FJM's Junior has a great idea for the Mets' 2008 slogan:

How about a billboard that just shows Baseball Prospectus' playoff odds in real time? That would be a good slogan.

I'm serious.

Odds to Win: Division

Since the ASB means three days without baseball, all the betting sites currently have odds for each division. Normally these odds are taken down a lot, since a couple games can have such a big effect on a divisional race. But now is a good time to look at where the values are on these lines.

Normally the division lines are tough to beat- they give you odds like the Red Sox to win the East at 1:50 (SB; bet $50 to win $1), or the Twins being 6:1 in the Central (BetUS; BP puts them no higher than 2%).

Looking through these odds on various sites, the only really good one I found was Oakland. Both (here, and here) BP projections have the A's chances of winning the West right at 10%. At SportsInteraction they're 16:1, and at SportsBetting they're 15:1. Those both seem like pretty good values to me (they're 10:1 on Bodog, and the other two sites don't have lines on them). If I were making the lines, I'd put them at 8:1.

Nothing else seems too blatant. The Tigers at -120 (or 5:6) at SportsInteraction isn't bad, as the BP projections have them at about 60%. And the Dodgers at 7:4 (SB & Bodog) seems a little high, as they're coming in at about 40%: that line should probably be about 5:4.


Thanks to With Leather, Baseball Musings, Rays Index and The Feed for linking to my AL second half preview yesterday.

Back tomorrow with the NL preview.

A Midseason Look at Futures Lines

I thought, at the halfway point of the season, I should take a look at what Futures odds are the best values.

I looked at the futures from four sites- Bodog, SportsBetting, Sports Interaction, and VIP. The odds listed below are the best “Odds to Win 2007 World Series” lines for each team.

To determine what I thought were each team’s chances of winning the World Series are, I took the data from Baseball Prospectus’ Postseason Odds. I used a combination of the real data Postseason Odds, and PECOTA Postseason Odds.

Once I had each team’s percentage chance of making the playoffs, I simply divided that percentage by eight (the total number of playoff teams). This system obviously isn’t perfect, as it gives each postseason team an equal chance of winning the championship. But, after the research I did discovering that regular season record has very little bearing on October success, I am not particularly concerned with this.

Here are, in my estimation, the seven best futures lines:

The fact that the Mariners are 100:1 seems absurd to me. On the other three sites they are 25:1, 35:1 and 28:1. Despite Hargrove’s shocking resignation this afternoon, they are only two behind the Angels in the loss column, having won eight in a row.

The Athletics are in a similar situation. 60:1 on VIP, but their best odds other than that are 35:1 (SportsBetting). Despite all the injuries the A’s, who always play better in the second half, are still in the race.

Those are the two long shots this system likes. The next three are all very similar lines for NL teams that have been playing well. I think these three lines are all good lines to bet on, but none of them seem completely out of place, like the two AL West teams.

The last two on the list are just barely better than breaking even. I think the Cubs, who have been playing better all year than their record indicates, are a solid bet. Their WS % data is also from before their victory over Milwaukee this afternoon. The Indians are probably about where they should be, as they have come down from about 20:1 at the start of the year.

So I think Seattle at 100:1 is definitely the most attractive line. The A’s line is probably second best, with San Diego and Chicago also having pretty good odds.

EDIT (7/4): VIP has updated their odds. Mostly notably, Seattle moved all the way from 100:1 to 35:1, and Oakland moved from 60:1 to 40:1.