Teixeira Dealt To Angels

The best team in baseball team which currently has the best record in the majors got better on Tuesday, trading Casey Kotchman and relief prospect Stephen Marek to the Braves for Mark Teixeira.

It seems as though the Braves were intent on getting a first baseman back. That may or may not have limited their return, although it almost certainly made their haul less exciting. There's a big difference between trading a superstar for a prospect you can dream on, and dealing one for a first baseman with a .327 OBP. For this deal to work out for Atlanta, Kotchman needs to start walking again; his BB% has plummeted from 10.7% last season to 4.6% this year. He'll be eligible for arbitration this winter, so the Braves control him through 2011.

We'll certainly be hearing this "best team in baseball gets better" theme over the next few days which, for obvious reasons, is a little ridiculous. What's interesting about this acquisition is that while it makes the Angels about a win better down the stretch (see comments), that doesn't really matter (except for home-field), as they've pretty much locked up the division anyway. The return on their investment will come almost solely in October, a trait which is unique to them at this year's deadline.

I'm not sure, quantitatively, how much of an effect that has. Instead of improving their chances of making the playoffs and then helping their offense in the playoffs if they make it, he barely effects their playoff chances and will make them a better postseason team when they make it. I'm pretty sure the Angels' position lessens his impact, but don't know by how much.

Note the large discrepancy between the Braves' haul and what the Rangers got for Teixeira at least year's deadline--Salty, Elvis Andrus, Neftali Feliz (no, there are no typos in his line at Clinton), Matt Harrison, and Beau Jones. Some of that is the continued shift towards valuing prospects more and more, but that certainly doesn't explain all of it. Keep this in mind when the Pirates get an underwhelming package back when they trade Jason Bay next July.

Related: Teixeira Trade [FanGraphs]

Futures Watch: Week 8

This week:
Oakland, 50:1 (VIP)
Current Record: 24-23
PECOTA Playoff Odds: 27.3%
Tampa Bay, 35:1 (BetUS, 5Dimes)
Current Record: 27-19
PECOTA: 49.4%

Oakland beat the Rays today, which is not factored into any of the statistics above.

Tampa's average weekly odds thus far this year:


The first big shift comes directly after their six-game winning streak, which ended April 27. Their odds have been steadily descending since.

They've now allowed 193 runs in 47 games, on pace for 665. A little higher than last year, but I'm pretty sure they'd take that.

A week ago, BetUS had the Rays at 16:1 to win the AL East. Today, their best odds to win it all are 35:1, and it's as low as 20:1 at Sportsbook. (They didn't screw around, dropping it all the way from 100:1. Seems as though they're not too interested in taking many more bets on Tampa.)

Prior to today's win, Oakland had lost 8 of 10. Unsurprisingly, the offense was the problem, hitting .233/.313/.361 over that span (at least they're still walking).

It feels like it'll be hard for the A's to hang with the Angels all year--they're currently three games out--but it's certainly possible. The Angels were 27-20 coming into today, but their third-order record is actually under .500. Their scoring margin was only +8, and that's even while performing well in clutch situations.

Atlanta, 40:1 (VIP)
Current Record: 24-21
PECOTA: 31.8%

Contrast this with the Mets' best odds--10:1 at Sportsbook. Not only are the Braves two games ahead in the standings after today's win, but they've played much better so far this year.

Atlanta has now outscored their opponents by 58 runs. Some of that is because of a relatively weak schedule, but it's still impressive. The Mets, on the other hand, are only +4, against an average schedule.

The Braves have done this by playing well on both sides of the ball--both their OPS+ and ERA+ are 117. Obviously Chipper has led the offense, but McCann has been very good as well, hitting .321/.382/.596.

PECOTA's odds likely underestimate their playoff chances; the question is by how much. The version of the playoff odds that only considers data from this season has them at 54.3%, so it's probably somewhere in the middle. If they're 40% to reach the playoffs, and 50-50 to win the DS, and 40% to win the CS, that'd put their pennant odds at 11.5:1; BetUS has them at 17:1, so that's probably a pretty good wager.

Edit: At Matchbook they are +950 to win the NL, and -1450 to not win the NL, so 17:1 is definitely good.

Also: Losing with the Right Guys [Let's Go Tribe]

Futures Watch: Week 4

Along with the regulars, I've also taken odds from VIP this week. They tend to have some pretty good prices on futures.

Same as always, except this week I have incorporated the World Series percentages that MGL posted for each team yesterday.

Oakland, 75:1 (BetUS)
Current Record: 12-9
PECOTA Playoff Odds: 32.9%
MGL World Series odds: 4.2%
Tampa Bay, 150:1 (VIP)
Record: 9-11
PECOTA: 28.8%
MGL World Series odds: 2.7%

Every week. I was not kidding.

The Rays won tonight, so they're actually 10-11. They have scored 103 runs, and allowed 93, putting them on pace to give up 717 runs on the year. This is the exact same pace as last week, which is kind of amazing. PECOTA's seemingly crazy projection had them with an RA of 718. Kazmir's rehab start went well today, and he's expected to return on May 3 or 4.

VIP has excellent odds on them, but the "max bet to win" is $3,000, so you can't wager more than $20. They are still available at 100:1 at Sportsbook and 5Dimes. They're also 100:1 to win the AL on VIP; you can bet $30 on that.

The only problem with Oakland's hot start is that their odds are dropping. They were 125:1 at 5Dimes two weeks ago, and 80:1 at the same book last week. 5Dimes has probably been receiving some action on the A's, since they're all the way down to 66:1 now.

Tim Brown of Yahoo! Sports initially reported that Oakland had signed Frank Thomas, but is now saying he is also considering an offer from a second team. Hopefully the A's get that done- he would be an excellent addition.

Atlanta, 40:1 (Sportsbook)
Record: 10-10
PECOTA: 27.9%
MGL World Series odds: 5.2%

Lost today, now 10-11.

I was surprised to see the Braves this high at Sportsbook. At the other four sites they are between 25:1 and 32:1. MGL's percentages confirm my surprise, as he would have Atlanta at 18:1.

They have not exactly gotten off to a flying start standings-wise, but have actually outscored their opponents by 24 runs which, as we have seen, bodes well for them going forward.

I don't really have much to say here. Their line seems way too high- they are probably not as good as the Mets, but the best odds you can get on New York are 6.5:1 at VIP. That's a pretty ridiculous discrepancy. Unless they play very poorly in the near future, I can't imagine they'll be 40:1 for much longer.

Cleveland, 17:1 (VIP)
Record: 8-12
PECOTA: 52.9%
MGL World Series odds: 8.6%

VIP has the Indians at 17:1, and the Tigers at 6:1. If someone could explain this to me, I would really appreciate it.

This really seems like more of an inefficiency in VIP's odds than anything else. Thsi can happen at the beginning of the year, when we are still going by expectations/reputation as opposed to actual performance. There is just no reason for that huge gap. The Indians have not been playing particularly well, but they have outscored their opponents by three runs. Cliff Lee has been brilliant, and Sabathia finally looked like his old self last night. This is still a very good team- the favorite to win their division. The Indians and Tigers should each be around 12:1; I think that would make a lot more sense.

Tigers Solve their Shortstop Problem

Back in September, Carlos Guillen made a big fuss about how he expected to be Detroit's shortstop in 2008.

"'If they're going to get a shortstop, it had better be a Gold Glove,' Guillen said before the Tigers lost 7-4 to Cleveland and moved closer to their offseason. 'I don't have a problem with first base, but if you bring in a shortstop, it has to be a really good shortstop.'"

This issue came up for two reasons. First, Guillen, 32, is no longer very good defensively, although the man can hit (.320/.400/.519 in '06, .296/.357/.502 this year). Also relevant is that their 2007 first baseman, Sean Casey, slugged just .393 this year, and is now a free agent. So moving Guillen to first seemed to make a whole lot of sense, if the Tigers could just find a "really good shortstop" to replace him.

Well, sometimes things just work out, as on Monday they acquired Edgar Renteria from the Braves. After struggling in '04 and '05, Renteria improved in '06, and was tremendous this year, hitting .332/.390/.470 in 494 ABs. Renteria, also 32, doesn't possess the defensive skills that he did a few years ago; he's probably about league average at this point. But he's a definite step up defensively from Guillen, who cost the Tigers about 10 runs in the field this year, according to UZR and THT's fielding stats.

To get Renteria, the Tigers had to give up two of their top prospects, Jair Jurrjens and Gorkys Hernandez. Kevin Goldstein's analysis of the two, from BP Unfiltered today:

“Jurrjens is just 21 years old and has already proven the ability to hold his own in the big leagues. The Curacao native isn’t especially big or projectable, but what he is now is pretty darn good, as he throws a low 90s fastball, decent slider, and deceptive changeup. Scouts do wonder is he has a big league out pitch and see him as more of a No. 4 starter type – a role the Braves could use him in immediately.

“Hernandez hit .293/.344/.391 in the Midwest League this year for his full-season debut while also leading the Midwest League with 54 stolen bases. He’s an absolutely burner on the base paths, and also a spectacular center fielder with a plus arm. Despite the numbers, he’s still more tools than performance. He needs to either hone his approach to develop into a leadoff man, or develop more power (the bat speed is there) to become a dynamic power/speed combo. Very high upside, but obviously some risk. He’ll likely begin next year at High A Myrtle Beach."

Jurrjens definitely isn't "big", at 6'1, 160, and he wasn't exactly dominant in seven starts with the Tigers (11 walks, 13 Ks in 30.2 IP). But he won't be 22 until January, and had a 3.20 ERA with 94 Ks in 112.2 IP at AA Erie this year. And he's probably the second best prospect in the deal, as in August Goldstein ranked Hernandez as the 10th best CF.

So they had to give up some young talent, but the Tigers have certainly improved their '08 roster. Meanwhile, their divisional rivals, the Indians, have a similar dilemma. Like Guillen, Cleveland SS Jhonny Peralta can hit (kind of), but hurts them in the field. The Indians also have a logical solution, as defensive wizard Asdrubal Cabrera could play short, sliding Peralta over to third. This would leave Casey Blake as the odd man out, but I feel like they could live with that.

But all signs point to the Indians not making any changes to their infield, as GM Mark Shapiro continues to claim that Peralta will be the club's SS in 2008. It will be interesting to say how this plays out, as the futures of four players (Peralta, Cabrera, Blake, and Josh Barfield) will be effected by this decision.

Okay, this is completely unrelated, but MLB is (shockingly) upset with Scott Boras for the timing of his A-Rod announcement. Boras' response:

"I apologize to the Boston Red Sox and Colorado Rockies and their players, Major League Baseball and its players, and baseball fans everywhere for that interference. The teams and players involved deserved to be the focus of the evening and honored with the utmost respect. The unfortunate result was not my intent, but is solely my fault. I could have handled this situation better, and for that I am truly sorry."

Is this guy serious? Who, exactly, does he think he's fooling? Are we really expected to think this was all an accident, he didn't realize there was a baseball game going on, and people may care about this particular announcement? What was his "intent"? "I am truly sorry". Sure.

Also: Twins exercise closer Joe Nathan's $6MM option (Yahoo!)

Photos: MLB.com, Indians.com.

Futures Watch: Quick Hits

We're down to the last few days, so instead of doing one Futures Watch this week, I'm just going to throw up the occasional short post when I see something that looks enticing.

On September 18, the Braves' playoff odds were literally zero. Since then, they have won seven of eight, and have gotten back into the race- after tonight's game they are only two games behind the Phillies, and three back of the Padres.

Over at SportsBetting they're 300:1 to win the World Series. Their chances are still slim (making up three with five to play is a tall task), but they're far from out of it-this is a great value, and will probably be changed in the morning.

Futures Watch: Week 20

This late in the season a team's playoff odds can change very quickly. Last night the Indians beat the Tigers, 5-2. With that one game, their playoff chances jumped from 47% to 56%. This big jumps can have a huge effect on futures lines, and since sites don't always update their lines every day, this can give bettors an advantage.

The top 10 current lines:

The Mets have won three in a row, as their WS% continues to ascend (it was 11.9% on August 1), while their lines are stagnant. This doesn't surprise me- in the standings, the Mets are still in first place, a few games up, but in reality, their playoff % has gone from 81% to 89% this week.

Colorado is also on the rise, as they've won 3 of 4 against the Cubs and Padres to see their postseason odds go from 17% to almost 28% over the last five days. Despite this, they're still either 45:1 or 50:1 on three sites (SB, SI, VIP), so it's worth waiting to see how they play over the next few days.

The Braves come in as the third best line of the week. It was interesting- right after the Teixeira trade, the Braves' best line dropped all the way from 30:1 to 17:1. It was as low as 15:1 at one point, but I guess people have lost interest. Interestingly enough, the Braves' postseason chances have gone in the exact opposite direction as their odds, as they have won 7 of 10 to almost double their percentage from 25% to 49%. It should also be noted that the Postseason Odds simulation doesn't take into account the fact that their team is significantly stronger now than it had been over the first four months of the season. So it's possible they should even be a little higher on this list.

Examining MLB Futures

The purpose of this post is to use futures odds on various sites to determine which odds may be favorable to the bettor.

I have taken the "Odds to Win 2007 World Series" lines from five different sites- sportsbetting.com (SB), Bodog.com (BD), BetUS.com (BUS), sportsinteraction.com (SI), vip.com (VIP), and determined the extent of the house advantage at each of these sites.

After doing this, I have adjusted the odds so they add up to 100% (no house advantage). In this we have something of a "true" percentage for each team.

The first numerical column in the following table is that true percentage. The second is the best odds that they have, and the third is the site with those odds.

The "True #" column is what their odds should be, according to their "True %". And the final column is the difference between their true odds and their actual odds.

Of the teams that have positive differentials (favorable odds), I think Washington and Kansas City can be ignored. When teams' odds are that high, there is bound to be some deviation from the average.

The Orioles are 35:1 one one site and 50:1 on two others, yet they are 100:1 at sportsinteraction.

The Rangers are 40:1 and 50:1, but also 80:1 on two and 100:1 at sportsbetting.

Although those two teams don't exactly look like World Series contenders at the moment, there are a couple other teams that seem to have good odds. Arizona and Atlanta are a little further down on this list, but both have two frontline starters (Johnson and Webb, Hudson and Smoltz).

I think the larger point here can be seen in last year's St. Louis Cardinals. You just don't have to be that good to make the playoffs in the inferior National League. And once you get into the playoffs, everybody has a shot. In this case I think that makes Arizona and Atlanta especially attractive, since they are in the NL, and they have the horses for October.