Going The Wrong Way

Same as yesterday, except the guys who have gotten worse. All numbers still taken from FanGraphs, and through Monday's games.


All of Pena's rates are pretty much in line with his pre-2007 numbers. How do you explain last year, then? I have no idea.

Manny shows up here mostly because his '07 K% was much lower than it has been throughout his career. Beyond that, he's walking less but his power is back, so there's not much to worry about there.

Brendan Harris has two things going for him: he walks a decent amount, and he's a middle infielder. Beyond that, he strikes out a ton, is a poor defender, and does not hit for any power. Nobody from that trade is doing very well, really; Delmon Young can't even hit the ball in the air, Bartlett has a .551 OPS, and Garza has managed a 34:25 K:BB ratio in 62 innings.

Hall has seen his LD rate collapse, and his BABIP plummet right with it, from .326 to .267. Despite what his agent might think, platooning him seems like a good choice, as his career OPS is about 100 points higher against lefties, and almost 500 points higher this year (small sample, obviously). Also, anything that causes someone whose B-R page is sponsored by the Rob Deer Fan Club to get more ABs is probably a good move.

Iguchi is getting old, and playing in PETCO doesn't help. Mercifully, that's only a one-year contract.

Updated MLB Home Run Champ Odds

Sportsbook has once again posted odds on who will lead the majors in home runs this year. The original odds were discussed two months ago; today I am going to look at how "my guys" are doing, and see if there is any value in some of the updated odds.

Ryan Braun
Was 15:1
HRs: 3
Now12:1

Braun is actually off to a slow start, hitting .227 with no walks. Doesn't matter though, because a) it's 44 ABs, and b) he's on pace for 49 homers. I thought 15:1 was a little high, but not unreasonable- 12:1 is about right at this point.

Rick Ankiel
Was 300:1
HRs: 3
Now 10:1

This is funny. There is no way anybody thinks Ankiel has a 1 in 10 chance of leading the majors in homers- which is exactly the point. Somebody (and, I have no idea who this might be) bet on Ankiel at 300:1, and it doesn't take much money at those odds to put the books at risk. So they made sure to change it to a completely outrageous price, because they don't want to increase that risk. I am sure they'll be happy to take your action at 10:1 though.

Carlos Pena
Was 50:1
HRs: 5
Now 15:1

Gotta love anyone who starts the year with a .216/.370/.622 line- five homers, six walks, and as many HBP as singles (three). I don't know what had more of an effect here- his 81-homer pace (yes, I do thoroughly enjoy playing the on-pace game two weeks into the season), or the fact he shouldn't have been 50:1 in the first place. Probably a combination, and I don't think I'd take him at 15:1 now.

Alfonso Soriano
Was 25:1
HRs: 2
Now 20:1

A very slow, 44 OPS+ first couple weeks for Soriano, but he does have the two HRs. There was some value in 25:1, caused by the 27 games he missed last year; there probably isn't much in 20:1 after the slight hole he's put himself in.

It's too bad they don't have odds for Justin Upton- with four homers already, and a little bit of potential (maybe), he could be a fun longshot. Pujols (3 HRs) is interesting at 20:1- he was 15:1 in February, and I'm assuming that's changed because of the injury concerns. Might be worth taking a chance that he stays healthy all year- I don't think it's that much of a stretch that a healthy Albert Pujols would lead the majors in homers, although he's actually never even let the NL.

Chris B. Young has gotten off to a quick start (four homers), but his odds (30:1) already reflect that. There doesn't seem to be much else of interest- they've tightened up a bit on these. They currently all add up to 175%; it was only 143% in February. The full odds can be found here.

2008 MLB Home Run Champ Odds

Sportsbook has posted odds on who will lead the majors in HRs in 2008. This kind of thing is extremely difficult to handicap but, with the help of PECOTA, I thought I'd give it a shot.

Here are a few of the bets I think there's some value in.

Ryan Braun
Odds: 15:1
PECOTA homers: 39, 2nd in MLB

Braun was an absolute beast last year, hitting 34 HRs in only 492 PAs en route to winning the NL RoY (the selection was obviously debatable, but for reasons other than his bat). That's a homer every 14.5 PAs. His odds are the clear outlier among the '08 predicted HR leaders- the best you can do on anyone else in the top four is 5:1.

Rick Ankiel
Odds: 300-1
PECOTA homers: 30, 13th in MLB

Yes, seriously. PECOTA is very bullish on Ankiel- other projections dont' have him nearly as high. Will he lead the majors in HRs? No, probably not. But it's important to remember how good these odds are. Betting $20 would net you $6000. And hey, stranger things have happened.

Carlos Pena
Odds: 50-1
PECOTA homers: 33, 6th in MLB

Carlos Pena hit 46 home runs last year. Vlad Guerrero hit 27- he's never topped 45, and hasn't even reached 40 since 2000 (with a team that no longer exists). Yet they both have the same odds. I could do this comparison with Pena and pretty much anyone else, since his remarkable '07 season really flew under the radar. Sure, it doesn't really match up with his career stats, but it's hard to argue with getting the guy who was 4th in the majors in HR at 50-1.

Alfonso Soriano
Odds: 25-1
PECOTA homers: 35, 5th in MLB

The value here is because Soriano is coming off a "down year", hitting only 33 homers (mostly because he missed 27 games). Still, he hit 46 in '06, while playing half his games at RFK. He should probably be in the range of 10-1, but the line is skewed by last year's low output.

Othere decent bets: David Wright (100:1), Adrian Gonzalez (200:1), Nick Swisher (75:1), Grady Sizemore (300:1). Edit: Dunn (18:1), too. Good point.

I've posted all the odds here; feel free to post your pick(s) in the comments. The full PECOTAs are available here; a BP subscription is required.

Photos: Flickr, SI.

A-Rod Wins, But Not Unanimous

Good work by MVP Tracker. If there was ten point deduction for DHs, it would have nailed the top 5.

Here's a shocker:

"The only two first-place votes that didn't go to Rodriguez were from Tom Gage of The Detroit News and Jim Hawkins of The Oakland Press in Pontiac, Mich."

Somebody put Abreu seventh? The guy had the worst year of his career, pretty easily. A 114 OPS+ from a right fielder just seems like it's hard to get excited about. And he didn't go nuts with the counting stats either- 16 HRs, 101 RBIs. Strange.

Sorry, but Vlad was not the third most valuable player in the league. I would like to see the logic in putting him ahead of Ortiz/Magglio/Posada.

Pena's line is weird- two third place votes, but wasn't higher than 6th on any other ballots.

Same goes for Putz- a 4th, an 8th, and a 9th. That's less surprising though- it's just someone valuing relievers more than others.

Polanco probably deserved more support- 12th in VORP, and Dewan's system likes his glove (+12 plays). He was definitely better than Jeter (although that hardly makes him unique; Jeter was 11th in VORP, -34 plays)

Sabathia beats Beckett again, this time 11-2. A convincing margin.

Lowest VORPs to receive a vote:

Frank Thomas 31.5 (31st among AL hitters)
Justin Morneau 28.8 (39th)
Bobby Abreu 27.9 (42nd)

Tomorrow's ballot should be very interesting.