Actual AL Cy Young Odds

From Bodog.

Andy Pettitte, 50:1
Pettitte is actually one of the better longshots here. With 10 wins, he is only two behind Lee and Saunders. The problem is that he also has seven losses, and his ERA are over 4 (with his peripherals supporting about that level). 50:1 seems about right for him.

Cliff Lee, 9:2
I actually put Lee at exactly this price a few weeks ago. For him, not all that much had changed. Your AL All-Star starter has a good shot of being the best pitcher in the league, but the other factors that help you win a Cy Young--a good team record, a good bullpen, and a good offense--aren't exactly in his favor.

Ervin Santana, 13:2
It's interesting to see that Santana, with a higher ERA and fewer wins, has lower odds than Saunders. This makes sense, of course, since Santana has the peripherals to support his current stats, while Saunders does not. Santana is probably the third favorite at this point, and is priced accordingly.

Joe Saunders, 10:1
I would have him a little higher--probably somewhere between 12:1 and 15:1--but after factoring in juice, this makes sense. No value here.

John Danks, 20:1
Danks is actually fourth among AL pitchers in VORP, but only has seven wins. He would have to have a ridiculous second half to accumulate enough Ws to be considered.

John Lackey, 25:1
Lackey has gotten wins in six of his 11 starts, and has a 2.47 ERA. If he hadn't missed six weeks, he might be the favorite. As it stands, he has a lot of catching up to do. He's not completely out of it, but he obviously has a lot of catching up to do. Probably not a lot of value at 25:1.

Jon Lester, 20:1
Lester didn't make the All-Star team because he's only 7-3, and he's not a real Cy Young contender for the same reason. He had a nice first half, with a 3.38 ERA, but is due for some regression, as his strikeout, walk, and GB ratios are only average.

Josh Beckett, 12:1
He could stand to get some more ground balls, but Beckett has actually had a really good year, with a 107:24 K:BB ratio in 112 innings. He is probably the fifth most likely to win the award, so 12:1 makes sense.

Justin Duchscherer, 9:2
He really got screwed yesterday. He has been getting lucky all year though, with a .213 BABIP and a 4.8% HR/FB ratio. His QERA is 4.40, which is right around his PECOTA projection. He's got a shot, but he certainly doesn't deserve to be priced right with Lee and Halladay.

Mariano Rivera, 6:1
I don't really understand this at all. Why is he here and not K-Rod? I get that Mariano has a low ERA, and hasn't blown a save, but this is ridiculous. He only has 23 saves, and he has three losses. And I don't care how good his K:BB ratio is (50:4), if the Yankees don't make the playoffs, he's got no chance.

Mike Mussina, 20:1
This is about right. 11 wins and a decent ERA. Not exactly a thrilling candidacy, but he's in the mix. Mussina also might get some points for the 250 wins he recorded prior to this year. His best Cy Young finish was second, in 1999 (although it wasn't exactly close).

Roy Halladay, 5:1
I think this is too high. What's not to like? 11-6 so far, with a 2.71 ERA. Best QERA in the league, at 3.07. Best FIP, at 2.86. Most innings, with 146.1. An outrageous amount of ground balls (56%). 121:21 K:BB ratio. And a very good track record prior to this season. All that, and he's priced below Justin Duchscherer? The only problem is Toronto's offense, which isn't exactly a juggernaut. Even so, if there's value in any of these, I think it's with Halladay.

Field, 9:2
This includes Matsuzaka, Kazmir, King Felix, Gavin Floyd, and of course K-Rod. I'm not sure why some of those guys aren't listed while Lester and Danks are, but I also don't think 9:2 is particularly high for that group.

Bodog also has odds on the NL Cy Young, and the MVP in both leagues.

AL Cy Young Odds (2)

This whole thing is an absolute mess right now.


I am taking pretty much everything I can think of into account at this point. Offense, bullpen, playoff chances, how deep they pitch into games, etc.

Halladay is the favorite because he has a 93:15 K:BB ratio, is averaging 7.6 IP/S, and is better than every pitcher with more wins than he.

Cliff Lee would be 12-1 right now, and probably +250, if the Indians' bullpen hadn't blown leads in both of his last two starts. Their pen's FIP of 4.59 is about a half run worse than any of the other relevant teams.

Joe Saunders is here only because he has 11 wins. He has struck out 49 in 101 innings. Cy Young stuff right there.

Lackey was added at the request of Lozo. With only five wins, he has a lot of catching up to do, but considering his track record he deserves to be listed.

K-Rod now has 31 saves. I have no idea what his odds should be. That is a complete guess.

AL Cy Young Odds

No site has actually posted these yet; I came up with the lines below myself this afternoon. No juice, as they add up to 99.85%.

Welcome to a world where Cliff Lee is the favorite to win the Cy Young.

Cy Young Predictor, which was of great assistance in doing this, currently has Lee in first by a decent margin. He'd really be lapping the field if not for Jody Gerut, but that's neither here nor there.

Lee's 20008 BABiP is up to .308, which means it's been outrageously high over the last month. His ERA, which was 0.67 after seven starts, has risen to 2.55, but his K:BB ratio during that time is 32:10, so it's not like he's fallen off the map.

Saunders matches Lee's win total (10), but not much else. He's been extremely lucky, with a 78.4 LOB% and .247 BABiP allowing his FIP to be 1.21 points higher than his 3.06 ERA. That luck has given him a chance in this race, but it's still very unlikely.

Besides that, this is pretty much the usual suspects. Matsuzaka has only made 11 starts, and a 5.3 BB/9, but is right in this because luck and run support have propelled him to an 8-0 record and a 2.53 ERA. His rehab start on Monday seems to have gone well, and he may take Colon's spot in the rotation this weekend.

Kazmir is an interesting case. He's only made eight starts, but is already 6-2 with a 1.74 ERA. PECOTA loved him coming into the season (3.23 ERA), so he's getting some extra credit there.

I'm not sure if anyone has noticed, but K-Rod is on pace to have 64 saves, which would be a record. He's obviously unlikely to continue that pace, and wouldn't necessarily win if he did, but that's why he's listed.

If you think any of these are off, and would bet a large sum of money on one if they were real, please inform me of your disagreement in the comments.

Is Cliff Lee Mortal?

Neyer continues the Neyer/MGL Cliff Lee saga today:

"What does any of it mean? Is Lee a Cy Young candidate now? Let's assume 1) he's reasonably healthy for the rest of the season, and 2) beginning today he merely hits his career numbers: six innings per start, 4.37 ERA. If those things happen, Lee finishes the season with a 3.26 ERA, which last year would have been sixth-best in the league. Cy Young-worthy? C.C. Sabathia won the award last year with a 3.21 ERA; Josh Beckett finished second with a 3.27 ERA.

So is Lee a Cy Young candidate right now? Yeah, I think he is. Based purely on what he's done throughout his career, and not just this spring."

Before I get into this I want to quickly talk about this whole, "Yeah, but he hasn't faced any real offenses" criticism. It's true that Lee hasn't faced particularly stellar lineups: Oakland (twice), Minnesota, Kansas City, Seattle, New York, and Toronto. But how much of a difference has that made?

By AEQR, here is the strength of each offense, in R/G, that Lee has faced, after taking out their performance against him.

He faced the Yankees without A-Rod or Posada, and Toronto without Wells*. So knock them down to 4.60 and 4.50, respectively. Weighting the A's twice, that averages out to 4.32. The AL average in non-Cliff Lee starts is 4.58. So, yeah, he's faced bad offenses- 0.26 runs below average. So that bumps his ERA up to 0.93, his FIP up to 2.11, and his QERA up to 3.03. Somehow, I think he'll be okay.

So, is Cliff Lee a Cy Young candidate? To get an idea of where he stands, I used each player's PECOTA to finish out the season, assuming each pitcher would make 26 more starts. I added that to their current stats, and plugged it into the Cy Young Predictor formula (which takes into account wins, losses, IP, ER, Ks, and shutouts). I looked at both perennial contenders, and guys off to quick starts this year. Halladay and Saunders were also included, but didn't make the cut for the table below. Remember, this is being outrageously pessimistic about Lee going forward- PECOTA had his ERA at 4.95.

(Quick note: I understand that wins are not a good measure of pitcher value. I get it. But the question is whether Cliff Lee is a Cy Young candidate, rather than whether we should expect Cliff Lee to be the most valuable pitcher in the league this year. And, in the coming months, sports books will have odds on the former criteria, and not the latter.)

Here are the predicted standings:

Matsuzaka is the only guy who combines a tremendous start in the Cy Young categories (6-0, 2.45 ERA, 40 Ks) with an optimistic PECOTA (4.00 ERA). Whether he can keep this up while walking six guys per game is another story entirely.

The only guy that seems out of place here is Wang. He is 6-1 with a 3.12 ERA, and has a career ERA of 3.69. But PECOTA was down on him, probably because of the low K rate, expecting Wang to have a 4.40 ERA. So he should probably be higher on the list.

That's not the focus here though. The point is that, as Neyer hypothesizes, Lee is still a Cy Young candidate even if he goes back to his mediocre form of years past. Starting off 6-0 with a 0.67 ERA will have that effect. He's not at the top of the list, but he's in the conversation- he finishes 15-10, with a 3.74 ERA, and 158 Ks in 190 IP. Not your typical Cy Young numbers, but remember these are all averages, so nothing is going to jump off the page.

But what about if we're a little more optimistic about Lee's final 26 starts? How about a 4.00 ERA, 6.5 K/9, and wins in 38% of his starts.

That puts Lee's Cy Young Predictor score at 140.8, far ahead of his competitors- 16-7, 3.19 ERA. And, considering his FIP and QERA after 53.2 IP, I don't think a 4.00 ERA is an unreasonable expectation. In conclusion, not only is Cliff Lee a Cy Young candidate, he may even be the favorite at this point.

*I noticed, while looking through his game logs, that Lee has pitched the second game of a doubleheader twice this season. In those two starts, against Kansas City and Toronto, he's gone 18 innings, and hasn't allowed a run while striking out 14 and walking 2. I wonder if scoring is lower the second game of a doubleheader than on average. My guess is that it probably is- you have some guys sitting out, and others have already played a game earlier in the day. Wouldn't really make a difference, but interesting nonetheless.

Photo: RotoZoo.

This Week's Links (5/5-5/9)

14-22. Worst record in the AL. First baseman throwing his helmet at opposing pitchers. Fire McLaren!

"Charles Barkley Is a Dumbass."

Cliff Lee took the subway to Yankee Stadium before his start on Wednesday. He should just run for President at this point, really.

What would happen if you let a pitcher play CF? Oh, I see.

"Wait, let me get this straight, you proposed when it wasn’t even Felix day?"

Starting price for Super Bowl XLIII commercials: $3 million.

Congratulations to Brian Sabean, winner of the Worst GM tournament.

This Week's Links (4/21-4/25)

Cliff Lee's ERA+ currently sits at 1563. Update: Unfiltered:

"Since 1956, do you know how many pitchers had made three straight starts with 8+ innings, <=3 hits, <=1 walk, and 8+ strikeouts? Here's the list, which I have put in alphabetical order for your convenience:

Cliff Lee.

Here's that list again, sorted by last name:

Lee, Cliff."

Apparently, the key to a successful baseball team is figuring out which 42 games are the "important ones".

20 years ago, Crash Davis already understood BABiP.

Mets Geek interviews Tom Tango.

I understand it's a tough job, but you have to wonder what goes through the umpire's head on a call like this.

Two Posnanski interviews- Hardball Times, and Outs Per Swing (a Rays blog).

LeDunk.

I love this:

"If the problem is 'the heart of the order fails with runners in scoring position,' the solution isn't 'put fewer runners in scoring position.'"

Early Season Surprises: Lucky, or Good?

Three weeks into the season, it's still too early to read to much into players' performances so far. We can, however, look a little deeper into players' numbers and see if they might continue to perform higher/lower than expectations, or if they've just been lucky.

Strangely, the greatest contrast between these two categories comes when we look at the two starters who have yielded the lowest BABiP so far this year- Gavin Floyd and Cliff Lee. Floyd, who had a 5.27 ERA in 70 innings last year, is 2-0 with a 1.40 ERA in three starts thus far. Lee was demoted to AAA Buffalo last year with a 6.38 ERA through 16 starts, but has a ridiculous 0.40 ERA in 2008. Obviously the predictive value of ERA after three starts is extremely minimal, so let's take a look at their peripherals (from FanGraphs):

Floyd has been impressively lucky. His K/9 and BB/9 are both actually worse than last year, but the absurd BABiP and LOB% numbers more than cancel that out. Not surprisingly, we should not expect Gavin Floyd to maintain a sub-2.00 (or even sub-4.50) ERA throughout the year.

Lee is a more complicated, and more interesting, case. Allowing one earned run in 22.2 innings is very difficult to do- you have to be both extremely lucky, and very good. Lee fits both these categories, with a .154 BABiP and 10.0 K/BB ratio.

His FIP of 1.70 is overly optimistic, but it makes you wonder- how good can he be? The biggest surprise has been issuing so few walks, as his career BB/9 is 3.03. But there is some precedent for Lee having decent control, as in 2005, when he had a 3.79 ERA in 202 IP, his BB/9 was only 2.32.

The strikeouts are interesting as well. His current K/9 is 1.24 higher than his career mark of 6.70, but he's been all over the place. He actually peaked at 8.09 in 2004. Last year with the Indians he was down to 6.10, but thrived after he was sent down, with 50 Ks in 41 innings at Buffalo.

Prior to this season, you could have looked at Cliff Lee's career stat line and thought, "If this guy every puts it all together, he could be fantastic." His first three starts have forced us to seriously consider this option. It's possible, if somewhat unlikely, that Lee has "put it all together", and could throw up a line somewhere in the range of 200 IP, 175 K, 55BB, with an ERA around 3.50, which would make him one of the best pitchers in the league. He could also revert back to his 2007 form, but I think the mere possibility that Cliff Lee could be a Cy Young contender is one of the most interesting developments of the young season.