Different format for this one, since the last one was so ugly. The second column is each player's predicted Cy Young Predictor finish, and the third is their odds at Bodog.
I'm not sure how they figure Lincecum to be the favorite over Webb at this point. I know they haven't been historically bad, but the Giants' offense is still not good. Webb is already two wins ahead, and he's in a good position to add to that lead going forward. Regardless, I don't think there's value in either of those--the NL race is much tighter than the AL.
Webb and Lincecum have created some separation between themselves and the rest of the field, which shows in these odds. Hamels stands out a bit, at +1500. He's had a fantastic year thus far, with a 3.16 ERA and 126:34 K:BB in a league leading 142.2 innings. He only has nine wins, but with that lineup, that shouldn't be too much of a problem the rest of the way.
Zambrano is overvalued at +800. That's probably because his ERA (2.85) is so much lower than his QERA (4.53). His HR rate is down over 50% from last year, but his ground ball rate is only marginally higher, and his K rate is down significantly.
There is a big dropoff between Zambrano and the rest of the field. Santana still has a chance--he has a great history in the second half, for whatever that's worth--but he only has eight wins, and there are a lot of very good pitchers in front of him.
Andy Pettitte, 50:1 Pettitte is actually one of the better longshots here. With 10 wins, he is only two behind Lee and Saunders. The problem is that he also has seven losses, and his ERA are over 4 (with his peripherals supporting about that level). 50:1 seems about right for him.
Cliff Lee, 9:2 I actually put Lee at exactly this price a few weeks ago. For him, not all that much had changed. Your AL All-Star starter has a good shot of being the best pitcher in the league, but the other factors that help you win a Cy Young--a good team record, a good bullpen, and a good offense--aren't exactly in his favor.
Ervin Santana, 13:2 It's interesting to see that Santana, with a higher ERA and fewer wins, has lower odds than Saunders. This makes sense, of course, since Santana has the peripherals to support his current stats, while Saunders does not. Santana is probably the third favorite at this point, and is priced accordingly.
Joe Saunders, 10:1 I would have him a little higher--probably somewhere between 12:1 and 15:1--but after factoring in juice, this makes sense. No value here.
John Danks, 20:1 Danks is actually fourth among AL pitchers in VORP, but only has seven wins. He would have to have a ridiculous second half to accumulate enough Ws to be considered.
John Lackey, 25:1 Lackey has gotten wins in six of his 11 starts, and has a 2.47 ERA. If he hadn't missed six weeks, he might be the favorite. As it stands, he has a lot of catching up to do. He's not completely out of it, but he obviously has a lot of catching up to do. Probably not a lot of value at 25:1.
Jon Lester, 20:1 Lester didn't make the All-Star team because he's only 7-3, and he's not a real Cy Young contender for the same reason. He had a nice first half, with a 3.38 ERA, but is due for some regression, as his strikeout, walk, and GB ratios are only average.
Josh Beckett, 12:1 He could stand to get some more ground balls, but Beckett has actually had a really good year, with a 107:24 K:BB ratio in 112 innings. He is probably the fifth most likely to win the award, so 12:1 makes sense.
Justin Duchscherer, 9:2 He really got screwed yesterday. He has been getting lucky all year though, with a .213 BABIP and a 4.8% HR/FB ratio. His QERA is 4.40, which is right around his PECOTA projection. He's got a shot, but he certainly doesn't deserve to be priced right with Lee and Halladay.
Mariano Rivera, 6:1 I don't really understand this at all. Why is he here and not K-Rod? I get that Mariano has a low ERA, and hasn't blown a save, but this is ridiculous. He only has 23 saves, and he has three losses. And I don't care how good his K:BB ratio is (50:4), if the Yankees don't make the playoffs, he's got no chance.
Mike Mussina, 20:1 This is about right. 11 wins and a decent ERA. Not exactly a thrilling candidacy, but he's in the mix. Mussina also might get some points for the 250 wins he recorded prior to this year. His best Cy Young finish was second, in 1999 (although it wasn't exactly close).
Roy Halladay, 5:1 I think this is too high. What's not to like? 11-6 so far, with a 2.71 ERA. Best QERA in the league, at 3.07. Best FIP, at 2.86. Most innings, with 146.1. An outrageous amount of ground balls (56%). 121:21 K:BB ratio. And a very good track record prior to this season. All that, and he's priced below Justin Duchscherer? The only problem is Toronto's offense, which isn't exactly a juggernaut. Even so, if there's value in any of these, I think it's with Halladay.
Field, 9:2 This includes Matsuzaka, Kazmir, King Felix, Gavin Floyd, and of course K-Rod. I'm not sure why some of those guys aren't listed while Lester and Danks are, but I also don't think 9:2 is particularly high for that group.
Bodog also has odds on the NL Cy Young, and the MVP in both leagues.
Ben Sheets is the biggest mover, from 20-1 last week to +700 this week. He's now 4-0 in June, with a 2.25 ERA, and is halfway to a very large contract.
Zambrano is so low because he hasn't actually pitched very well--68 Ks in 106.1 innings, contributing to a QERA of 4.69. His actual ERA is low because his HR/FB is 50% below his career average. That's unlikely to continue.
Dan Haren just missed the list. The field includes him, Hudson, Lohse, Billingsley and Cook.
I've tried to condense these odds a bit more, as we're not even halfway through the season, and nobody (except Webb) really stands out.
I am taking pretty much everything I can think of into account at this point. Offense, bullpen, playoff chances, how deep they pitch into games, etc.
Halladay is the favorite because he has a 93:15 K:BB ratio, is averaging 7.6 IP/S, and is better than every pitcher with more wins than he.
Cliff Lee would be 12-1 right now, and probably +250, if the Indians' bullpen hadn't blown leads in both of his last two starts. Their pen's FIP of 4.59 is about a half run worse than any of the other relevant teams.
Joe Saunders is here only because he has 11 wins. He has struck out 49 in 101 innings. Cy Young stuff right there.
Lackey was added at the request of Lozo. With only five wins, he has a lot of catching up to do, but considering his track record he deserves to be listed.
K-Rod now has 31 saves. I have no idea what his odds should be. That is a complete guess.
Webb is tricky, with the hip thing, and last night's disaster. This seems about right for now, but another bad start or two and I'll have to re-evaluate things.
Volquez threw 178.2 total innings last year, so fatigue isn't as much of a concern as it might be with some 24-year olds. His FIP is an impressive 2.76, which is Cliff Lee territory.
The Giants have averaged 5.05 R/G in Lincecum's starts, which will obviously not continue, as games like this will likely become increasingly frequent. Still, he's already 8-1, and doesn't need that much support.
No site has actually posted these yet; I came up with the lines below myself this afternoon. No juice, as they add up to 99.85%.
Welcome to a world where Cliff Lee is the favorite to win the Cy Young.
Cy Young Predictor, which was of great assistance in doing this, currently has Lee in first by a decent margin. He'd really be lapping the field if not for Jody Gerut, but that's neither here nor there.
Lee's 20008 BABiP is up to .308, which means it's been outrageously high over the last month. His ERA, which was 0.67 after seven starts, has risen to 2.55, but his K:BB ratio during that time is 32:10, so it's not like he's fallen off the map.
Saunders matches Lee's win total (10), but not much else. He's been extremely lucky, with a 78.4 LOB% and .247 BABiP allowing his FIP to be 1.21 points higher than his 3.06 ERA. That luck has given him a chance in this race, but it's still very unlikely.
Besides that, this is pretty much the usual suspects. Matsuzaka has only made 11 starts, and a 5.3 BB/9, but is right in this because luck and run support have propelled him to an 8-0 record and a 2.53 ERA. His rehab start on Monday seems to have gone well, and he may take Colon's spot in the rotation this weekend.
Kazmir is an interesting case. He's only made eight starts, but is already 6-2 with a 1.74 ERA. PECOTA loved him coming into the season (3.23 ERA), so he's getting some extra credit there.
I'm not sure if anyone has noticed, but K-Rod is on pace to have 64 saves, which would be a record. He's obviously unlikely to continue that pace, and wouldn't necessarily win if he did, but that's why he's listed.
If you think any of these are off, and would bet a large sum of money on one if they were real, please inform me of your disagreement in the comments.
"What does any of it mean? Is Lee a Cy Young candidate now? Let's assume 1) he's reasonably healthy for the rest of the season, and 2) beginning today he merely hits his career numbers: six innings per start, 4.37 ERA. If those things happen, Lee finishes the season with a 3.26 ERA, which last year would have been sixth-best in the league. Cy Young-worthy? C.C. Sabathia won the award last year with a 3.21 ERA; Josh Beckett finished second with a 3.27 ERA.
So is Lee a Cy Young candidate right now? Yeah, I think he is. Based purely on what he's done throughout his career, and not just this spring."
Before I get into this I want to quickly talk about this whole, "Yeah, but he hasn't faced any real offenses" criticism. It's true that Lee hasn't faced particularly stellar lineups: Oakland (twice), Minnesota, Kansas City, Seattle, New York, and Toronto. But how much of a difference has that made?
By AEQR, here is the strength of each offense, in R/G, that Lee has faced, after taking out their performance against him.
He faced the Yankees without A-Rod or Posada, and Toronto without Wells*. So knock them down to 4.60 and 4.50, respectively. Weighting the A's twice, that averages out to 4.32. The AL average in non-Cliff Lee starts is 4.58. So, yeah, he's faced bad offenses- 0.26 runs below average. So that bumps his ERA up to 0.93, his FIP up to 2.11, and his QERA up to 3.03. Somehow, I think he'll be okay.
So, is Cliff Lee a Cy Young candidate? To get an idea of where he stands, I used each player's PECOTA to finish out the season, assuming each pitcher would make 26 more starts. I added that to their current stats, and plugged it into the Cy Young Predictor formula (which takes into account wins, losses, IP, ER, Ks, and shutouts). I looked at both perennial contenders, and guys off to quick starts this year. Halladay and Saunders were also included, but didn't make the cut for the table below. Remember, this is being outrageously pessimistic about Lee going forward- PECOTA had his ERA at 4.95.
(Quick note: I understand that wins are not a good measure of pitcher value. I get it. But the question is whether Cliff Lee is a Cy Young candidate, rather than whether we should expect Cliff Lee to be the most valuable pitcher in the league this year. And, in the coming months, sports books will have odds on the former criteria, and not the latter.)
Here are the predicted standings:
Matsuzaka is the only guy who combines a tremendous start in the Cy Young categories (6-0, 2.45 ERA, 40 Ks) with an optimistic PECOTA (4.00 ERA). Whether he can keep this up while walking six guys per game is another story entirely.
The only guy that seems out of place here is Wang. He is 6-1 with a 3.12 ERA, and has a career ERA of 3.69. But PECOTA was down on him, probably because of the low K rate, expecting Wang to have a 4.40 ERA. So he should probably be higher on the list.
That's not the focus here though. The point is that, as Neyer hypothesizes, Lee is still a Cy Young candidate even if he goes back to his mediocre form of years past. Starting off 6-0 with a 0.67 ERA will have that effect. He's not at the top of the list, but he's in the conversation- he finishes 15-10, with a 3.74 ERA, and 158 Ks in 190 IP. Not your typical Cy Young numbers, but remember these are all averages, so nothing is going to jump off the page.
But what about if we're a little more optimistic about Lee's final 26 starts? How about a 4.00 ERA, 6.5 K/9, and wins in 38% of his starts.
That puts Lee's Cy Young Predictor score at 140.8, far ahead of his competitors- 16-7, 3.19 ERA. And, considering his FIP and QERA after 53.2 IP, I don't think a 4.00 ERA is an unreasonable expectation. In conclusion, not only is Cliff Lee a Cy Young candidate, he may even be the favorite at this point.
*I noticed, while looking through his game logs, that Lee has pitched the second game of a doubleheader twice this season. In those two starts, against Kansas City and Toronto, he's gone 18 innings, and hasn't allowed a run while striking out 14 and walking 2. I wonder if scoring is lower the second game of a doubleheader than on average. My guess is that it probably is- you have some guys sitting out, and others have already played a game earlier in the day. Wouldn't really make a difference, but interesting nonetheless.
As I mentioned earlier, I sent an e-mail to Kevin Sherrington, the Dallas Morning News writer that didn't have C.C. Sabathia on his AL Cy Young ballot at all. Everybody else had C.C. either first or second, so I wondered what Sherrington's logic was.
He was kind enough to reply very quickly. His ballot was Beckett, Carmona, Santana, in that order. His explanation for each follows.
Beckett:
"No, the 20 games didn't do it. It's only a game's difference. Beckett's ballpark had something to do with it, along with my feeling that Beckett was a better big-game pitcher, a fact borne out again in the playoffs."
It was good to see that Beckett didn't get the nod simply because he had a shiny win total. It's true that Beckett pitches in a slightly more difficult park (Fenway's park factor is 106; Jacobs Field's is 103). This does make Beckett's ERA+ (145) superior to Sabathia's (143)
But that's a fairly minimal difference; it clearly doesn't make up for the huge innings disparity. And also, if we're looking at outside factors, how about defense? The Sox had the best defense in the league; Cleveland's was below average. Finally, the fact that Beckett pitched well for the Florida Marlins in the 2003 playoffs really couldn't be less relevant to the 2007 AL Cy Young.
Carmona:
"I gave more credence to Carmona's road ERA over Sabathia's."
Carmona's road ERA was 2.73; Sabathia's was 3.32. I have no idea what this has to do with anything.
Santana:
"Should I have had Santana over Sabathia? Probably a mistake. I think Santana's numbers other than W-L are outstanding. I was influenced too much about having two Indians on a three-man ballot. Shouldn't have let that be a factor."
It's clear that if he could do it again, Sherrington would have Sabathia at least third on his ballot. It's cool that he admits his mistake, although this really seems like something that he could have realized before submitting his vote.
If you're going to give Beckett credit for pitching in a hitter's park, shouldn't Johan be hurt by having half his starts in the Metrodome? Minnesota's home park was very friendly to pitchers, with a 96 park factor. This caused Santana's ERA+ to be 130, clearly inferior to Sabathia's 143.
It's clear Sherrington put some thought into his ballot, and didn't just look at Beckett's 20 wins and put him first because of that. But it seems like his methodology was quite flawed; he was pretty selective in what factors he took into account for each pitcher, and considered arbitrary things that don't matter at all ("Beckett was a better big-game pitcher", Carmona's road ERA).
It's impossible to watch all 2,430 regular season games each year, so people have to look at numbers to see how everyone did. The problem is that some people focus on the wrong things. This generally happens when things like RBIs, runs, and a pitcher's W-L record are cited. Inevitably, in an NL MVP debate, someone will refute the numbers and say Rollins was the most valuable player in the league...and then back that up with the fact he scored 139 runs.
Here, park factors were given far too much weight in one case, and completely ignored in another. More advanced stats (ideally things like VORP, but even ERA+ and OPS+) automatically give the proper weight park factor and similar adjustments. If people would just take the time to learn and understand them, it would save everybody a lot of hassle.
This article in today's Boston Globe sheds some light on some of the details of yesterday's voting. Some interesting tidbits:
"Two writers - Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News and Jorge Ortiz of USA Today - left Beckett off their three-man ballot. Each of them voted Sabathia first, Cleveland teammate Fausto Carmona second, and Angels pitcher John Lackey third."
That order looks strangely familiar... 2007 VORP leaders, AL Pitchers: 1. C.C. Sabathia, 65.2 2. Fausto Carmona, 64.0 3. John Lackey, 60.7
I don't know if Feinsand and Ortiz considered VORP in filling out their ballot or not, but that's really not the point. These are two guys that are clearly looking beyond the fact that Josh Beckett had *20* wins, which is encouraging.
Also, there's this:
"One writer, Kevin Sherrington of the Dallas Morning News, left Sabathia off his ballot, voting Beckett first, Carmona second, and Minnesota's Johan Santana third."
Every other voter had Sabathia either first or second; I really don't know how you can look at this situation and determine that C.C. Sabathia wasn't one of the three best pitchers in the AL this year. I just e-mailed Mr. Sherrington, asking for his thoughts on the voting.
I'm gonna go ahead and look at the following as progress (from MLB.com):
Mentioning that Beckett had one additional win is fine, as long as you qualify it. I read that second sentence as "Josh Beckett had one more win, but that's really an awful measure of how good he actually was at pitching."
After the disaster that was yesterday, the writers actually did pretty well today. The voting really wasn't close:
I would really like the person that voted for Verlander (18-6, 201.2 IP, 183K, 3.66 ERA) to explain that to me.
It's interesting to compare this with the standings for the Neyer/James Cy Young Predictor:
Pretty close, except CYP really underestimated Beckett. I would have to think this is because he had *20* wins, which looks a lot better than 19. Their formula gives you six points per win, but it seems like Beckett probably got about 10 points for win number 20.
OMDQ points out that MLB.com spelled Bedard's first name wrong (it's Erik...actually, it'sÉrik). And Trevor noticed that Sabathia was left off of one ballot entirely, which is pretty incredible.
"HatGuy": "Fact is, the Yankees are in far greater need of a Scott Brosius, a Bernie Williams, a Paul O’Neill than an uninspired (and uninspiring) A-Rod."
Well that was thrilling. Although the second place finisher was somewhat surprising. The NL leaders in VORP, among pitchers:
Nothing against the guy, but how did Harang get 16% of the vote? (And why did I include him and not Smoltz? No idea.) I'd like to know what the thought was behind that, or if it was just sixteen Reds fans. I guess at the end a few people might have just been voting for who would get second between Harang and Webb; but really, who cares?
I love how different the voting on this site is from anywhere else (well, at least until the IBAs are posted). Carsten Charles (I wish his actual name was more widely used) took almost two thirds of the vote. I applaud the people who voted for Lackey and Fausto when they were like 80 votes behind. I still think Fausto had a better year than Beckett, but thats OK.
Over at EC, we all voted on the MLB awards, and I wrote a little summary of the results. Nothing too exciting- mostly just me bitching about how Josh Beckett might win the Cy Young.
FWIW, here's what my ballot looked like (not at all similar to anyone else's, apparently):
AL MVP: Rodriguez, Magglio, Ortiz NL MVP: Wright, Pujols, Holliday AL Cy: Sabathia, Carmona, Lackey NL Cy: Peavy, Webb Oswalt AL RoY: Pedroia, Guthrie, Matsuzaka NL RoY: Tulowitzki, Braun Pence
To be honest, I haven't really had time to put much thought into the AL RoY.
Leave yours in the comments, if you wish.
Also, the AL Cy voting on this site isn't really in doubt anymore, so I'm gonna have it end at 4pm today, then I'll put a new one up. NL MVP, I guess.
Coming into Thursday's start, it seemed like Josh Beckett had a pretty easy path to his first Cy Young award. He already had 20 wins, and getting his 21st would have put him two ahead of his next closest AL competitors (Carmona and Wang, neither of whom will be making another regular season start).
His opponent was the Twins, who aren't exactly known for their offensive firepower. They rank 12th of 14 AL teams in R/G, and are without catcher Joe Mauer.
It's not like Beckett had to pitch a shutout or anything- all he really needed to do was get win #21- that two win margin probably would have been enough for the voters.
Well, things didn't quite work out as Beckett and the Red Sox had probably envisioned. Beckett single runs in the first, second, third, fifth, and sixth innings. He was pulled after six innings and 99 pitches, with Boston down 5-3. Their rally in the ninth of closer Joe Nathan fell short, and, rather than adding to his win total, Beckett was tagged with his 7th loss of the year.
So how do things stand now? Here are the up to the minute standings, according to Cy Young Predictor:
Of these three, only Sabathia will be making another regular season start- he goes Friday night against Kyle Davies and the Royals. Now he seems to be in the drivers seat, and the same situation Beckett was in 24 hours ago- he just need to get a W, and keeping that ERA under 3.20 wouldn't hurt. If he does that, one would think that, even the BBWAA would see that Sabathia's extra FORTY innings outweigh Beckett's extra one win.
The wild card here is Carmona. He leads the AL in ERA, and is behind only Beckett with his 19 wins. But he lacks the name recognition of the other two guys- he was 1-10 last year, after all. He's also lagging behind in strikeouts, and trails Sabathia in innings (although that hardly makes him unique). I would imagine that Sabathia will get the nod over Carmona if he manages a win on Friday. If he doesn't? Then it's really up in the air, and could go to any of the three.
All those guys are great stories because of non-baseball or injury factors. But how about a guy who's come out of nowhere to have a better season than any of them?
After last night's brilliant performance (8IP, 3H, 0R, 0BB, 9K), Fausto Carmona has the lowest ERA in the AL, at 3.07. To understand how truly remarkable this is, you have to understand what Carmona went through last year.
Saying that Carmona was 1-10 in 2006 really doesn't tell the whole story. He made three starts in April, pitching well in one and quite poorly in the other two. The Indians then moved him to the bullpen, and that's when things got interesting.
From May 20 to July 25, Carmona posted a 0.95 ERA in 28.1 innings of relief, holding opponents to a .294 SLG while not allowing a home run. He struck out 26 while walking only 7, and things were looking up for the 22-year old Dominican.
Then, the Indians traded closer Bob Wickman to the Braves, and promoted Carmona into Wickman's role- the logical move, given how well he had pitched in front of Wickman for two months.
Carmona lasted in this role for exactly one week, making four appearances. He allowed 11 runs in 2.2 innings, good for a 37.13 ERA. It started when he entered a a tie game against Seattle in the 9th, and allowed four runs as he gave up three hits and walked two batters. He did manage to get three outs, which ended up being the most he ever got as the Indians' closer.
The next day, the Indians were in Boston, and had a 8-6 lead going into the ninth, so they brought Fausto in. Fifteen pitches and a David Ortiz walk-off HR later, it was 9-8 Boston.
Two days later, in the same series against the Red Sox, Carmona came in with a 5-4 lead. Carmona loaded the bases by walking a batter and hitting two, then Mark Loretta won the game with a two-run double.
Three days after that, the Indians were in Detroit, and had a 3-2 lead. With two outs and a runne on first, Ivan Rodriguez blasted a two-run homer to left, ending both the game and Fausto's career as a closer. He did manage to make a little history in the process, becoming "the second pitcher in major league history to lose four games in relief in a span of no more than seven days."
The Indians decided that was probably enough, and his next two appearances games in games with scores of 14-2 and 13-0. They had Carmona make four starts in September, where he went 0-2 with a 4.50 ERA.
To recap:
Carmona only began 2007 in the Indians' starting rotation because of an injury to Cliff Lee. In four April starts Carmona went 2-1 with a 3.76 ERA. But when Lee was healthy again, the Indians sent him to AAA. This only lasted briefly however, as Jake Westbrook went down with an injury, and the Indians recalled Carmona.
In his first nine starts, Carmona pitched well, but it didn't seem like he could keep that up, as he struck out only 3.3 per nine innings. In his last 21 starts, though, things have been different, as he's almost doubled his strikeout rate, to 6.6 K/9.
Carmona relies on his sinker to get ground balls, and that seems to be working, as he leads the AL in ground ball percentage, at 64.6%. This also allows him to avoid the long ball, and he's fourth in the AL in HR/9, at just 0.62. Combining this with good control (2.5 BB/9) allows Carmona to limit baserunners. And even when people do get on base, Carmona has induced 32 double plays, which leads the majors.
Before last year, Carmona was ranked as Cleveland's #4 prospect; one could have expected him to struggle at first when he was called up, eventually finding his way and contributing. But the way he has done this- going 0/4 in save opportunities in 2006, only to become a Cy Young contender one year later, has been truly amazing.
Last Sunday, Josh Beckett started against the Orioles. Through seven innings he had pitched pretty well, allowing two runs while striking out eight. The score was 2-2 after the 7th, and he had thrown 116 pitches- he was done for the afternoon. The Red Sox scored in the top of the 8th on a Coco Crisp single, Okajima and Papelbon combined to give up one hit over the last two innings, and Beckett got his AL-leading 18th win.
I don't think anyone would argue that wins and ERA are the two biggest factors in the Cy Young voting. It also quite clear, to met at least, that Josh Beckett's season thus far would have been just as good if the Red Sox hadn't scored in the top of the eighth, and if he was 17-6 right now, rather than 18-6. Problem is, that's not how the voting works. The voting is done by the BBWAA, and their members are strangely obsessed with wins, because they think pitchers have control over games beyond how many runs they allow. This leads to some absurd results, such as Bartolo Colon winning the award over Johan Sanatana two years ago. A comparison of the '05 lines of Bartolo and Johan:
Colon won the award pretty easily, receiving 17 of the 28 first place votes. Why? Because the Angels scored 6.02 runs per game when he pitched, while the Twins averaged only 4.70. The fact that Anaheim's offense was better than Minnesota's was the deciding factor in determining the league's best pitcher. Makes sense, no?
Anyway, here are the guys who are in the running for this year's award.
1. C.C. Sabathia FanGraphs is fantastic, and this graph of Sabathia's walk rate since he came into the league is probably my favorite graph from the entire site (blue line is MLB average).
Six years ago Sabathia, just 21, struck out 171 in 180.1 innings and had a 4.39 ERA, going 17-5 because the Indians had the second best offense in the AL. I remember thinking than "Man, if he could just stop walking people, he'd be unhittable." Well, that happened, as the 2007 version of Sabathia has the third lowest walk rate among pitchers qualified for the ERA title. Except for the improved control, Sabathia is pretty much the same pitcher that he was back then, striking out about 7.5 per 9, and allowing less home runs than the league average. But decreasing his walk rate from 4.74 BB/9 to 1.35 has allowed that pitcher with so much potential to live up to the hype.
The thing that separates Sabathia from the pack is his 220 IP. There are eight AL pitchers with 16+ wins; among the other seven, John Lackey has the next most innings, with 195. Sabathia has done this by not missing a turn all year, and averaging 7.1 innings per start, with four complete games.
2. Josh Beckett
The intention of my introduction was not to be critical of Beckett, who has bounced back from a rough '06 (5.01 ERA, 36 HR allowed), to put together an impressive campaign. If he hadn't missed two starts in May, he might be 20-6, and the clear front runner for the Cy. As things currently stand, he's tied for the league lead in wins (with Wang), but is hampered by having pitched almost thirty less innings than Sabathia. The voters do take innings pitched into account (rightfully so), so, unless something else changes dramatically, Beckett is probably going to have to finish with two more wins than Sabathia to overtake him in the voting.
3. (tie) Kelvim Escobar, John Lackey Sabathia and Beckett have begun to separate themselves from the field, but Anaheim's front line is still in the race. Both Lackey and Escobar have quietly had great seasons, and they'll be a force to be reckoned with in October.
(Side note: As always, NYY & BOS will get all the hype heading into the first round. But LAA has these two guys, and CLE has Sabathia and Carmona, giving them better 1-2 punches than either the Yankees or Red Sox. With the extra off days, this could be a big factor in the Division Series; it would not shock me to see an Indians-Angels ALCS. Man, FOX would be furious if that happened.)
Anyway, Lackey and Escobar will probably get four starts apiece down the stretch, so one of would probably have to win out and get to 20 to have a chance of catching Sabathia and Beckett.
The Field
Chien-Ming Wang didn't make his first start until April 24; if he hadn't missed those first three turns in the rotation because of a hamstring injury, he, like Beckett, could be at the top of the list. At that point, we'd have a Colonesque situation with Wang, as his win total is inflated by the Yankees scoring 7.12 R/G for him.
Santana, although still fantastic, has killed his Cy chances this year with a relative lack of run support (24th of 39 qualified starters), and a career high 30 HR allowed. Fausto Carmona has been a great surprise for the Indians. Although his '06 campaign will always be remembered for the four game stretch in which Carmona the closer went 0-4 with a 37.13 ERA, he was actually great in a setup role before that, with a 0.95 ERA in 28.1 innings, mostly pitching the 8th. He's come onto the scene this year as part of one of the league's best 1-2 punches, as well as inspiring Torii Hunter to give one of the best quote of the year, saying, "He's not even human. It was so scary, I thought I was hung over."
After 16 starts, Danny Haren was 9-2 with a 1.78 ERA. He has since leveled off, going 5-5, 4.66 since June 26. He's not going to win, and next year he'll probably be closer to 4.66 than 1.78, but Haren has had an impressive season regardless.
If Wang were to get to 21 or 22 wins and get that ERA down into the 3.20 range, he'd have a shot. The other three would have to pull a Brandon Webb over their last 3-4 starts to have a chance of catching the leaders.
Of course, we won't have to accept the the BBWAA's selection if they screw this up, as BP's Internet Baseball Awards will pick a deserving winner.
At one point I was considering writing a long profile on Clay Buchholz, but SOX & Dawgs has a pretty good summary, certainly more concise than mine would have been. Although I don't quite understand all the "where did this guy come from" angle; he was Boston's #2 prospect coming into the season, and had 171 Ks in 126 minor league innings this year.
FanHouse continues its takeover, as they've now acquired The Dugout. As a send off, The Dugout is doing a series of farewell posts, starring Farnsworth, The Young brothers, and PECOTA.
I am constantly referring to the BP Playoff Odds; if you're curious as to how they're computed, Derek Jacques has a (free) article explaining what goes into them.
Snuck into the end of Neyer's blog post (Insider) yesterday: "P.S. By all measures I can find -- both numbers and media buzz -- if the Mets finish in first place, David Wright is a lock in the National League. Book it." I generally agree with this, although I think it's far from a lock. Knuckle Curve points out that the voters may be blinded by all the HRs of Fielder and Howard. This is true, but I think that will only allow them to overtake Wright if one of their teams reaches the playoffs.
I understand this isn't how the world works, but right now CC Sabathia should win the AL Cy Young. A big reason for this is he leads MLB in innings. Beckett is going to be right up there with the voters because of his 17 wins, but Sabathia has pitched thirty six more innings. This is partially because he has made four more starts (which has value in itself), but he also goes deeper into games, averaging 7.0 innings per start to Beckett's 6.7.
In notching his 16th win last night, Kelvim Escobar jumps up to third in Cy Young Predictor- he would be a deserving choice as well. Sadly, it looks like Bedard's season might be done. This means that the MLB strikeout leader is one again up for grabs, with the top contenders being Peavy (210), Johan (203), and Kazmir (199).
Here are the current Cy Young Leaders, according to the Neyer/James Cy Young Predictor (I don't know why, but for all the NL pitchers ESPN is using 3 for their "victory bonus"; I am not, thus the discrepancy in the standings).
Penny previously had a huge lead, but the Dodgers have lost his last two starts by scores of 3-1 and 3-0. Not only has Peavy pitched brilliantly in his last two outings (14 IP, 7H, 1R, 3 BB, 18 K), the Padres have actually scored some runs for him, winning those two games by scores of 9-4 and 11-0. Because of this Penny's lead has decreased from 14.4 to 5.2.
After losing to the Braves on June 1, Carlos Zambrano was 5-5 with a 5.62 ERA. In 12 starts since, Zambrano has gone 9-2 with a 1.43 ERA, with 82 strikeouts in 81.2 innings. That, coupled with the Cubs' 36-22 record over that stretch, has valuted Zambrano to third the standings.
Last time I looked at this, Brandon Webb wasn't even on the radar. That has certainly changed, as Webb hasn't allowed a run in 23 innings over his last three starts, improving from 8-8, 3.38 to 11-8, 2.92. He still has some work to do, but at least he's in the conversation now. Webb's 2.92 ERA is the lowest it's been since 2003 (2.84). He's had an interesting season, as he's seen both his K/9 and BB/9 increase by about 1.0.
Tim Hudson has also been fantastic recently going 4-0, 0.98 over his last five starts, allowing him to move all the way up to fourth in the current standings.
Using each pitcher's current statistics, their BP Translated ERA, and how many runs their team has averaged per game, I projected the final standings (I'm assuming Chris Young will make 9 more starts this year, although it is impossible to know when he will come of the DL):
Looking at this projection, it looks like Peavy and Penny will separate themselves from the pack. It is impossible to end up with a fraction in the VB column; either you make the playoffs and get 12, or you fall short and get 0. So by the end of the season, the clear advantage will go to Peavy if the Padres make the playoffs, or Penny if the Dodgers get in; if neither or both of them get in, then it will pretty much be a toss up.
If Zambrano or Hudson continue to pitch as well as they have been recently, either of them could make this a three horse race; they could also get an extra boost if the Cubs or Braves make the playoffs.
